Ask yourself why Paul Manafort chose not to accept tRump's pardon power as an option.

[ffr]

One reason might be, as journalists surmised, PM didn't think tRump would pardon him. Thus taking a plea deal was his best option.

However, after looking at all of the former guilty pleas already taken by tRump's men, I think it's a lot more ugly than that. By that, I mean, the special counsel may have additional information on tRump that could nullify a pardon if the SCOTUS determines the pardon was unlawful. And thus far, the special counsel is batting 1,000.

Which do you think it is?

1) Manafort felt tRump wouldn't pardon him?
2) tRump's pardons will be reversed as unlawful based on information that the special counsel has presented to defendants?

[redstateblues]

1. Trump was in a bind- Lindsey Graham et al

convinced Trump not to pardon Manafort til after the mid terms and then BOOM -Mueller put the squeeze on Manafort -beat him to the punch

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. A pardon can't be nullified; a president's pardon power is absolute.

There's no such thing as an "unlawful" pardon under the Constitution. Pardoning someone with corrupt intent could be obstruction of justice, but even if the president is impeached and/or prosecuted for it, the pardon itself would still stand. I think Manafort took the deal because (1) he knew he couldn't rely on Trump to give him a pardon; (2) he could still be prosecuted on state charges which Trump couldn't pardon him for; and (3) the deal is likely to give him less prison time than the result of a trial in D.C.

[ffr]

9. There was no such thing as it being unlawful to own slaves in the constitution either.

Vis-a-vie the 14th amendment. We could be in for more amendments after this sad episode in our nation's history.

But on your three points you made, kudos! Well explained. I feel enlightened.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

32. Pardons have never been a serious problem before this president.

At the time the Constitution was written the pardon power probably seemed to be a reasonable thing, derived from the British tradition of royal pardons, that wouldn't be abused. Most of the time it isn't abused. Ford's pardoning of Nixon was extremely controversial but I don't recall any serious arguments that it was an abuse of his power. It did probably cost him the 1976 election, though. And Bill Clinton's pardoning of sketchy character Marc Rich was also very controversial because of Rich's wife's substantial political contributions (Clinton himself later expressed regret for issuing the pardon, saying that "it wasn't worth the damage to my reputation." ). But even so I don't recall accusations that the pardon was given as some kind of bribe or inducement. Those are the only pardons I can think of that a lot of people found objectionable but it was clear that they couldn't be undone.

Trump, however, will abuse and corrupt any power he has as president. Constitutional amendments are very difficult to accomplish, but I hope someone introduces a proposed amendment that places some limits on the power to pardon so some future president won't be tempted to pull the same crap.

[Separation]

34. That's the last thing you want!

I dont have that much faith in people any more. I would be scared shitless if there was a Constitutional Convention. That's just opening pandoras box, and while it's a possibility that Democrats take power back this November, unless I'm mistaken it has to be ratified by the states.

Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

[ffr]

35. We're still in the majority regardless of who is in power, but you're more right than wrong

I'd be worried too that this somehow goes 180* in the wrong direction.

[fierywoman]

22. What if Trump's presidency is nullified, would that also void all his actions?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

23. No.

There's no mechanism in the Constitution for nullifying a presidency, and impeaching him wouldn't do that. The next president and Congress will just have to undo everything.

[jberryhill]

55. Can I ask you a serious question?

Someone posts about this idea of “nullifying” a presidency fairly often.

There is no such thing.

Is there some place that people are getting this odd idea? Is this just something that popped into your head, or did you hear it somewhere? And, if so, where/who?

[Lee-Lee]

59. I don't get it either. For a political website you would think

people posting on it would have at least a very basic understanding of how our boathouse political system works.

[fierywoman]

60. Will you allow me to dream? Thank you.

[jberryhill]

62. Yeah, sure

I was just wondering if this was coming from someplace in particular, because it’s not an original dream.

[sweetloukillbot]

63. Robert Reich put the idea forward

Incredibly irresponsible for someone who is supposedly knowledgeable on these things.

[jcgoldie]

3. Trump is rather undependable

...to say the least. Trump is going to do only what is good for Trump and he may not even assess that accurately. My guess is in the end Manafort trusted Mueller way more than his old buddy Don the con. He knows better than anyone Trump is a snake that can't be trusted.

[edhopper]

4. He would still face State charges

in VA and NY that Trump can't pardon. And I think Mueller was going after Manafort's family.

[Blue_true]

12. That Virginia, New York and California can press charges is exactly why having a Democrat as

AG makes an enormous difference. A republican would not press charges, in fact, a republican would do everything to suppress an investigation. Another turd into the mouths of the "No difference" jackasses.

[edhopper]

42. QFT!!

[dawg day]

61. Mueller apparently threatened to indict the poisonously awful Michael Flynn son

The one who STILL is on Twitter tweeting sht about the investigation.
His father seems to have pled guilty to spare him.

Manafort was TERRIBLE to his wife, to judge from what his daughters have said (I mean, making her have sex with other men because that was the only way he could get off).
But maybe he drew the line at her being indicted because she signed the joint tax returns he lied on.

[marylandblue]

5. Most likely 1, two is unlikely but there is also a third option

There is no precedent for reversing a pardon. It's just a legal theory that it could be reversed based on unlawful intent, but no guarantee that SCOTUS would reverse a pardon even if unlawful intent were found.


The third option is that state charges are also possible, so those who pled guilty felt they would likely go to jail even with a presidential pardon.

[RockRaven]

6. Trump's pardon power is irrelevant. Perhaps Mueller pointed out how, or PM's lawyers did.

All of those bank fraud and tax fraud charges? They are also crimes in the state of New York. And Mueller had all the evidence in black and white (documents/records), as well as cooperating witnesses. That evidence would all be available to the NY AG -- it's a basket of ready-made convictions with a bow on it.

AND Mueller purposely did not charge Manafort with every crime he knew of, to limit double jeopardy in case of a pardon. So even if Trump did successfully pardon Manafort of federal crimes, Manafort would spend the rest of his life in New York State Prisons. And New York State seizes assets too.

[IphengeniaBlumgarten]

7. And a fourth option...

It has been reported that Manafort was concerned about his family's safety. Remember the Skripal (spelling?) nerve agent poisonings in England -- might this be a warning to others, such as Manafort? Trump could not be relied on to protect Manafort's family, but Mueller would be someone who could be trusted to do so, if that was part of the agreement.

[Loki Liesmith]

8. A pardon doesn't keep you or your family safe from Polonium

[mshasta]

13. thats it

he wanted hes family safe, he know mafia are coming after him, and psycho trump doesn't care about anybody,
a stupid pardon is not a poison proof

[IggleDuer]

57. If gets pardoned, he will be able to walk free.

The Russians could easily get to him and slip him and his family a nerve agent.

If goes with Mueller, at least he could get into some form of Witness Protection Program and he and his family could try to start a new life. It may be his only chance to survive.

[Takket]

10. There is no legal basis for 2 so it has to be 1

[Sneederbunk]

11. Does this not put pressure on Trump to pardon now?

Before further cooperation from Manafort.

[bettyellen]

39. He's already have given them some stuff, and an outline of what's to come.

[shanny]

14. More like the former, but not exactly. With or without a federal pardon Manafort would go to jail:

there are plenty of crimes in multiple blue states that can, and no doubt would, be pursued (like CA, NY, IL). And, just like the idea of annulling the election, because cheating, there is no provision in the Constitution providing for reversing pardons.

[former9thward]

29. There is no evidence of state investigation of Manafort.

What are these "plenty of crimes"? If so why no investigation by the states?

[bettyellen]

40. They can turn over what they had to states prosecutors. The crimes that the jury deadlocked on

Could be moved to the state if they wanted, apparently. That was said on Maddow last night.

[former9thward]

41. A lot of things are said on Maddow.

Mostly for ratings. States can't investigate or prosecute federal crimes. Nothing is stopping any state from doing any investigation and yet none of them are doing it.

[bettyellen]

43. Some crimes have parts that fall under big jurisdictions and can be prosecuted by either.

So now Maddow’s Show is also “fake news”? You seem to love to discredit liberal media outlets whenever you can.

[shanny]

52. You don't think Mueller would hand it off if Rump tries to go around him? yeah, OK

As for "plenty of crimes", essentially they are the same ones the feds are working on. Tax fraud, for example, is a crime in federal law and state law. Do you think Manafort filed two entirely different returns?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/08/paul-manafort-will-likely-go-to-jail-if-trump-pardons-him-thanks-to-a-lone-holdout-juror.html

The states won't even need to investigate; the case is already built.

[former9thward]

56. Ok,

I bow to your vast experience in criminal law.

[shanny]

58. Thank you.

[JI7]

15. Trump can't pardon on state crimes

[NCjack]

16. I think that Mueller is holding a sealed indictment that names

Trump and Manafort as coconspirators in major crimes. If Trump tries to issue a pardon to Manafort, Mueller activates the indictment. That will elevate the issue to the SC. If the SC rules against the pardon, Manafort would be left with no deals from Trump and Mueller, and would die in prison. So, Manafort minimized his risk by making a deal with Mueller now.

[triron]

18. Perhaps Manafort seriously thinks this.

[NCjack]

19. Yes, I think someone he trusts suggested this possibility to him. nt

[former9thward]

31. The SC court can't overturn pardons.

Fantasy. There is no "sealed indictment".

[triron]

17. No. 2 is a novel thought. Thank you. Very well could be.

[Vinca]

20. If Trump pardoned him, Manafort might benefit, but Trump would be a huge loser.

Manafort would still have to testify under oath against Don. I suspect the polonium in your tea crowd wouldn't look kindly on that. I think Manafort wants protection as well as a break in his sentence.

[malaise]

21. Mana fort knows that Don the Con is just as guilty n/t

[dembotoz]

24. Take the deal on the table vs the pardon that may never come

Trump could have pardoned him already but left him dangling... could he trust trump?
Say that again with a straight face
Could he trust trump

[YessirAtsaFact]

53. Former Watergate prosecutor on Rachel last night:

She said Manafort not waiting for the pardon shows he didn't trust Donald Trump to follow through.

[kentuck]

25. Probably because Trump did not want to act until after the election?

Maybe Manafort needed some resolution sooner?

[mucifer]

26. I think he waited for the pardon and didn't get it soon enough. Prison is ugly. PM felt he was above

the law and would never have to go to prison. I think he is suffering every day he is in prison. He might care about his family. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't give a rat's ass about them and only felt that trump hadn't yet pardoned him and he didn't want to die in prison and he had waited long enough.

[brush]

27. I wouldn't bet on that trump-packed SCOTUS nullfying anything.

Mueller probably let Manafort know that he had state charges as well ready to turn over to Maryland and New York that trump could not pardon so it was in his best interests to flip and get the best deal he could for his family.

Coughing up 47m is steep so Mueller definitely had him over a barrel.

[Zambero]

28. There were civil and state charges as well

Not pardonable by a president with corrupt intent. And correct me if I'm wrong, but once pardoned Manafort would not be able to take the 5th in any future testimony.

[onenote]

38. Where have these other charges been brought?

[bettyellen]

44. They said they're holding back and not charging everything they can for leverage.

[onenote]

46. Link?

[bettyellen]

47. Maddow had some law experts on. They also said he won't get out or get his sentence

Until most of the cooperating is done. Something about a two year timeline and he’ll stay in prison but if he’s a good witness he could do little more time after that, but it’s designed to ring him out and keep leverage over him till his cooperation is over. They can hold back sentencing for quite a while, and often do as long as they know they could get a quite longer sentence than the time served it’s not a problem.

[mythology]

48. They haven't yet, but his guilty pleas in federal court would be able to be used against him

in state charges.

[The empressof all]

54. It comes down to the money...and fear of the NY Prisons....

Facing State charges he realized he could not afford a defense leaving his family even more impoverished. Especially because he would be found guilty in State Court. The evidence is just too strong. He would rather spend time in the Federal Prison and not in the NY Criminal Justice System.

[vlyons]

30. Manafort made a deal to protect his wife

She co-signed some of the paperwork for fraudulent loans, tax returns, establishing fake companies and bank accounts to launder money, etc. So she is also culpable in bank and wire fraud.

[C_U_L8R]

33. Who trusts Trump?

The guy has made a career of breaking his word and betrayal. Manafort may be a dumb crook but he’s not a total chump.

[Mr. Ected]

36. The lesser of two evils

He chose the path he could somewhat control over a path belonging to a narcissistic sociopath.

If he takes the pardon, he still has to testify in every trial, including Trump's, and cannot invoke the 5th. He still has to face multiple state charges. He goes down hard, and to his dying breath. He forfeits most all of his assets. His family gets no protection.

If he takes the plea, he can write most all of his own script. Yes, Mueller won't let him off scott free. But Manafort knows stuff, a lot of stuff, way beyond Trump and the 2016 election. His testimony would be invaluable to our intelligence community. He might be able to turn his years of crime into admissions that help us take aim at Russian influence and interference.

I think Manafort chose well.

[blogslut]

49. I like your answer.

A pardon would not help Paul Manafort. He'd still be guilty. He'd still face other charges. His family could go down with him. He's run/running out of money.

There's a saying in law enforcement: "You may beat the rap but you can't beat the ride."

[moondust]

37. Drumpf is a con man.

Manafort knows that as well as anybody and may have presumed that anything from Drumpf could have some kind of NDA or other legal strings attached that could end up screwing him. No trust or honor among thieves.

[Skraxx]

45. He Feared for his families safety

[pnwmom]

50. DT's pardon wouldn't have let him escape convictions for state crimes

and they showed him plenty of evidence for ADDITIONAL, as-yet-uncharged state crimes that could put him in state prison.

Because he accepted their deal, his state crimes were rolled into the Federal plea agreement.

[DonCoquixote]

51. simpler answer

Paul knows that he could be free as a bird, but it would only be a matter of time before he got a "heart attack", the sort that Russians know how to make like no other.

He would be safer on Texas Death Row.