Dear Eric Fehrnstrom, Thanks! (you, too, Andrea Saul)
Eric Fehrnstrom committed the ultimate sin in Republicanistan: he candidly spoke the truth about Romney's general election strategy in the presence of a neutral third party when Fehrnstrom said " It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all of over again.” Andrea Saul committed a similar offense when she momentarily spoke favorably of Romneycare, Mitt's defining achievement as Governor of Massachusetts.
Fehrnstrom's and Saul's candor has born unusual fruit: VP nominee Paul Ryan.
To rebut Fehrnstrom's inconvenient truth, Romney had to pick Ryan to avoid appearing like an Etch-A-Sketch tacking toward the center after a brutal polarizing primary. Because of the furor caused by Saul's candor, Romney needed to reinforce his support among hard-core Republicans: the one constituency Mitt should not have had to worry about.
What else does Ryan bring to the table except reinforcing Romney's support with the one constituency Mitt should already have locked down?
Not much.
Geographically: will Ryan bring his own state into Romney's column? Not likely.
Ryan is as divisive in Wisconsin as he is in the rest of the nation. Outside of his district, Ryan is viewed unfavorably by quite a lot of Wisconsin voters -- with negatives high enough to discount any home state VP bounce (and President Obama's lead in Wisconsin is bigger than any foreseeable home state VP bounce even without a discount).
Ideologically: will Ryan appeal to moderates and independents? Not likely.
Of all the VP nominees from the past century, Ryan is the furthest from the mainstream:
Demographically: What will be the Ryan effect?
Obama leads all age demographics except age 65+. This 65+ group is the same group that was most threatened and alarmed by Ryan's extreme right-wing budget plan. As a result, Romney's choice of Ryan threatens Romney's prospects with the one demographic where he was performing well.
When you think of the net effect that Romney choice of Ryan will have, take a moment and thank Eric Fehrnstrom and Andrea Saul, whose candor made this all possible.
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