Yes there is Major Hurricane Florence but were I in the GOM

[malaise]

I'd be watching the new invest




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and western Cuba are associated with a weak surface
trough. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula over
the next couple of days with only slow development expected during
that time. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive, and a tropical depression could form late this week when
the system moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. TLA

[Grammy23]

2. The Tropics have sprung to life here in the peak hurricane season.

Those of us who live along the Gulf Coast know better than to forget about the tropics just because we had a close call with T.S. Gordon. Things can spin up seemingly “out of nowhere” and what looks like it is a week or more away can be breathing down your neck before you can board up a single window.

Thanks for the heads up to not let things creep up on you this time of the year. A check in with the Hurricane Center or other resource you find reliable is mandatory and not just at random. Every morning and again in the evening is a good start until you know whether you are in a target zone. Storms are on a predicted path but can do unexpected things, so keep your eye on where they are headed and how they are developing!

[malaise]

3. Every morning and every evening

Correct.

[malaise]

4. Latest

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Grammy23]

7. Last night when we checked the forecast, that disturbance was given almost

No chance of development. Then boom, now they give it 30% over next two days and 50% over five days. Plus they’ve added Louisiana to the area keeping an eye on things in the Tropics. We never ever take a single forecast (especially an early one) and assume it will remain accurate. The conditions that make a depression become a storm and a storm become a hurricane are constantly changing. So it may be in unfavorable conditions today, but that may all change in a matter of hours.

I feel for the folks on the east coast. They are facing down a monstrous storm that will change the landscape, destroy homes and perhaps take lives and livelihoods. I hope they all make smart decisions and get out of the path of this storm in time.

[malaise]

8. One thing for sure

Never ignore peak season. Pay attention and have a plan

[Grammy23]

9. Absolutely.

We’ve gotten by this season with little to watch. It is now making up for that. 🌊🌊🌊⛈⛈⛈🌪💨🌧🌊🌊🌊

[Leith]

5. All These Storms Are Scary

but the worst of all is a monster bearing down on the Philipines.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=13.7;148.8;4&l=wind-900hpa

It has horrendously fast winds and the lowest air pressure of all the storms in the northern Atlantic and Pacific. It's gonna be a major killer.

[malaise]

6. Where is Olive?

Damn!

[Hortensis]

13. I read in the NYT that it's headed for their "breadbasket"

farmlands and that farmers are racing to harvest before the devastation. Up to 150 mph. A whole series of typhoons have been hitting one after the other, destroying "crops, livestock and fisheries."

[Gothmog]

10. Up to 60% chance of development

Link to tweet

[malaise]

11. Will be Joyce

If it forms

[malaise]

12. Up to 70% now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Baclava]

14. Flo and 95 are sucking all the moisture outta the northern gulf

[malaise]

15. Yep

This one is down to 50% now