Storm the size of North Carolina when it arrives

[bigtree]

Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
OK you guys, my intention is not to scare anyone with this message.

But Hurricane #Florence—the storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives.

This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction:





twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1038978626291679237

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. went through Fran here in Raleigh 22 years ago - lost over 100 trees....watching this very

closely. Hoping it decides to take a detour, somehow, away from land.

[Scurrilous]

2. It seems to be heading right for you...

https://www.islandpacket.com/news/weather/hurricane/article218091255.html

[underpants]

26. Good bye OBX

Yikes.

[PJMcK]

35. Yeah

We have a vacation house on Ocracoke Island. It's rented for the week but we'll see if they evacuate the island.

Sadly, there's not much we can do about it. The house is 8 feet above the ground and it was solidly built by our neighbor, a local who knows how bad the storms can be. We'll just have to hope for the best.

[underpants]

36. Good luck

There's already a 10 foot cliff somewhere (heard the story months ago) from erosion.

[calimary]

4. Oy - take cover and be careful! Got your supplies just in case?

Stay safe, and please report in about it from time to time, so we know you’re okay. Otherwise, we’re gonna worry.

[bigtree]

7. you had that smaller one hit right before that

...and Fran came ashore as a 3.

I think Edouard messed with it a bit before it came in.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

14. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but...

Isn't flooding in the low country the greatest danger to life in east NC and SC? I stayed near Georgetown, SC for a spell around 1980 and the land is very flat with rivers all over. They spoke a lot about a big one, I think Hurricane Hugo. One hit in the years after I left and rearranged my beloved Pawley's Island south of Myrtle.

Those areas in general are very poor after one goes inland a few miles and little attention is paid to those folks in a disaster. In the area where I stayed, I would guess 80% of the people lived in house trailers on private land.

Best wishes to you from KY through this trying time and please keep us posted......

[Lochloosa]

39. Water is always what kills you in a Hurricane. You can survive the wind, but not the water.

Native Floridian. I wouldn't be any where near this one.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

42. OMG, I can remember some of the evacuations out of Florida and

the trauma of that traffic.

Still feel the most sorrow for those who can't afford to or are not physically able to evacuate, and there will be many of those with Florence.

[malaise]

23. Take care

Florence is scary.

[Hortensis]

34. Ouch. Between weakened trees from climate change

and last big one 22 years ago, guessing you could possibly lose a bunch again.

When Irma reached north Georgia as a glancing tropical storm around this time last year, the damage was rather amazing, with thousands of trees down and tens of thousands without power in our county alone. Including us. Three trees from our woods fell on the road, a few others lost. The county had to do triage so merely cut a gap through a large oak blocking the road into our little neighborhood and moved on. But we knew it would have to be that way and we and our neighbors had already been out with chainsaws clearing the other trees blocking our roads and driveways.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

38. survive, then sell the lumber

Hang on.

After it's over, resist the temptation to just cut those trees up into firewood chunks. There are portable sawmill operators all over that area. You may recover some of your loss. (see forestryforum.com ).

Things get crazy and scary around here when we get 60 - 70 mph straight line winds. I'd be -elsewhere- in the face of a storm like that one is predicted to be.

[pangaia]

3. That looks a lot bigger than NC.

[B2G]

5. That's one model out of many.

Prepare for sure but look to the NHC for the latest info. We currently currently don't know exact path or intensity at landfall.

[nolabear]

6. My husband's family and a lot of friends are in NC.

Only a couple are on the coast and I’m sure they’ll go inland, but it sounds like they’re all in for a ride. I love those barrier islands. I don’t know which of us is going to go first but I wouldn’t give either of us more than thirty.

[bigtree]

8. South Carolina

...is where my sister-in law and her daughter lives.

Right near Myrtle Beach. She's worried about flooding (among other things).

[nolabear]

12. I wish her and hers the best. I went through some corkers.

Camille and Betsy, and myboeople suffered Katrina. They will make philosophers of you for sure.

[Croney]

32. I remember Betsy well.

I had a new baby and we'd bought a new house in Terrytown, a cookie-cutter low-end bungalow. In a week without power, my husband and his friends went out fishing and brought home giant redfish that they laid out on the lawn, so neighbors could take and grill. We had it easy. Once power was restored, the TV showed cars during the storm, floating with people inside.

[Lochloosa]

40. Camille? You have my respect...

[nolabear]

43. Yeah. I was fourteen. It wasn't something to go through.

We actually got out just ahead of it but my grandfather stayed and was lucky to survive. We were without power for weeks. Talk about living cheek by jowl and being afraid of the snakes that were EVERYWHERE. Oof. We were lucky really. Didn’t lose much. Lots lost everything.

[OxQQme]

9. Interactive weather map

https://www.windy.com/?32.361,-82.881,4

In windy, choose 'wind' from the upper right vertical menu bar.
In the lower menu, sequentially choose Monday/Tues/Wed/etc and that twister's moving fast.

'Grab' and 'zoom' if you choose.

[bigtree]

16. comes right ashore (NC) on that model

...early Thursday morning.

[joshcryer]

18. The stall scenario is the worst case.

While the full push scenario would be devastating to structures, 30+ inches of rain would completely flood out entire towns, many many towns.

[Sherman A1]

21. Thanks for posting

a very interesting map. I will book mark the webpage.

[rusty quoin]

10. I'm in Richmond. My wife flies home from Nashville on Friday.

[JHan]

11. Fuck. That's massive.

[Jersey Devil]

13. I'm about 50 miles east of Raleigh

in Goldsboro, NC, home of Seymour Johnson Air Force Base. My daughter and her AF hubby live here also. Whenever there is the threat of a hurricane or tropical storm the Air Force flies all of its F-15 fighters out of the area and the families are left behind in what they call "Operation Abandon Your Family." Just an interesting anecdote about the lives of military families.

[Scurrilous]

17. Hurricane Andrew destroyed Homestead AFB in '92.

Not all the F-16's made it out in time.

[dsc]

22. same here

I fear another matthew

[malaise]

24. This will be far worse than Matthew

because of the wind factor

[sfwriter]

15. Trump had aids buy paper towels, so the government is ready.

I shouldn't joke. I have a feeling this will not go well.

[unc70]

19. Florence could be combo of Fran and Floyd

Fran brought hurricane winds inland past Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro; Floyd flooded everything east of Raleigh -- east of I-95 was unreachable by road for days, many major roads flooded for weeks. I-40 closed inland from Wilmington, US-70 closed at Goldsboro and Kinston, ...

[Petosky Stone]

20. Fran was widely predicted to hit land and then skirt up the coast,

but she didn't read the forecasts!

It hit us (in Cary) as a Cat 1. Most weren't prepared.

[OneGrassRoot]

37. Hi, Neighbor...

I'm in that same area. Lived through Fran too. Reeeeally hoping Florence jogs north against all odds.

[dembotoz]

25. Bet they get power restored faster than Puerto Rico

No matter how large the storm

[unc70]

31. Faster than PR, but not fast

It took a long time to restore power in N.C. after Fran (and Floyd). 10-20 days in areas far inland like Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill areas, months for some areas near and along the coast. Lots of little tornadoes and straight line winds brought trees down across nearly every power line, flooding took out much of the rest and maybe washed it away.

[dembotoz]

33. More than a year and still counting

Last edited Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:20 AM - Edit history (1)

[LanternWaste]

41. Three weeks is very fast compared to eleven months.

[PearliePoo2]

27. No way I would ride this monster out. If the winds don't get you the massive flooding will.

They are predicting it is going to stall out and dump huge amounts of rain. The rivers and streams won't be able to cope.

I would load up my animals, make sure my insurance is paid up and head west! Even if I had to borrow money to do it.

This thing is going to be a killer.

[DFW]

28. I hope Charleston, SC is still there in December

My wife and I spend New Year's there.

[liberal N proud]

30. Hope so too

We love Charleston too just spent Sunday there

We are outside the come here in Hilton Head as of last night.

[duforsure]

29. Be safe and aware of what's going on

After seeing what Harvey did to us , we left, we was thankful we got out , and early.

[dweller]

44. it just gets worse ...

it's raining already and predicted to everyday this week before florence gets here, saturating the ground and when the winds hit 😩 the trees will come down, latest projection shows it right over my area (chapel hill) by Friday nite, and dumping 7-10" + rain over the weekend resulting in widespread flooding...

does not look good ☹️ ... and all area stores already out of water, they say more is coming but I can't camp out waiting, it will be grabbed quickly I'm sure

[bigtree]

45. I saw the lines there

...essentially the parking lot full of shoppers with carts.

SiL says SC is almost impossible to buy water too.

Stay safe! Good luck with supplies.

[dweller]

46. scored water this morning

got up at 430, and hit the local grocery, picked up plenty and it was going fast... every shopper had a cart full
so I'm set, I hope ...

[OxQQme]

47. Interactive Barometric Pressure map

https://www.windy.com/-Show-add-more-layers/overlays?pressure,12.983,-55.371,3

While in 'windy', one can even choose to see real-time lightning strikes.
Quite amazing, to these 78 year old eyes, to look down upon the world in this optional fashion.

As The World Turns

[Tipperary]

48. Very cool. Thanks for posting!