General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJust as a reminder - Romney will probably get a 'bump' in the polls
It'll start now and probably last until right before the Democratic Convention.
At that time we'll take the election home.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)People will be focused on Ryan for a while.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The bump will be slight and short-lived.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)and the bump would really just put Romney as a tie with Obama, not ahead.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)They average polling bumps from 1976-2004 and find that post-convention, the challenger gets an 11 point bump, while the incumbent gets a 7 point bump. What is so funny is that they rely on the averages to raise their expectations. Also funny is that they don't consider that both parties have conventions and the incumbent always goes last. Using their numbers, the average bump is actually 4 points.
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)The Ryan budget and his desire to destroy everything that doesn't benefit the rich is already easy to document.
http://truth-out.org/news/item/10837-twelve-things-you-should-know-about-vice-presidential-candidate-paul-ryan
And, as VP surprise picks go, Ryan is no Palin.
Ryan is ALSO a member of a very unpopular Congress.
Brother Buzz
(36,478 posts)But it will be small and sort lived. The bounce will simple check Romney' s backwards slid in the polls.
lamp_shade
(14,846 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)as far as polls go that is
Courtesy Flush
(4,558 posts)She really boosted the poll numbers for a while. Just keep that in mind.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Mccain was doomed
Courtesy Flush
(4,558 posts)I don't know much about Ryan, but I see Romney as the Palin character this time. They can't win on the popularity of the VP alone.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Joe Biden is one of the best debaters in DC. You can give him any topic and he can masterfully debate either side of the issue.
He held back against Palin because he knew she was not a knowledgable candidate and he didn't want to come across as a bully. Palin was all about the memorized soundbites to please the supporters and Biden was masterful but low key. I booked my non refundable hotel room in DC the next day ( for the jan inauguration)
The Magistrate
(95,257 posts)The choice will raise up as many against it as will rally to it.
"Romney loves America like a tick loves a dog."
uponit7771
(90,367 posts)Fozzledick
(3,860 posts)The announcement of Ryan's selection will likely have little if any effect on the current polls, but the publicity and hoopla surrounding the convention will inevitably produce a noticeable bump despite the shoddy quality of the goods on display.
Fortunately the effect will be transitory and washed out by the Democratic convention the following week, but I think it's unrealistic not to anticipate it.
The Magistrate
(95,257 posts)And our convention comes second, and will swamp anything these people manage for themselves.
"Romney loves America like a tick loves a dog."
Denninmi
(6,581 posts)already has Paul Ryan's destruction as a viable candidate mapped out, and they just need to push the play button.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)They don't make bumps that big