****Trump now below 40% at 538 polling average

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Funtatlaguy]

1. Rasmussen is a joke. Should not be included.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Rasmussen at 44 is good

Several points lower than normal so they picked up on the same downward trend.

That's all I care about...if the downturn is legit and widespread and not sampling error. The more pollsters show up with the lower number the more likely it actually happened, some type of opinion change.

Now we need sustained

[Algernon Moncrieff]

2. Not surprising, but it's not bigly news until he gets under 35.

He's been in 35 - 40 territory a lot.

I think there is a sense that his charm is wearing thin on politically active independents/swing voters.

[NewsCenter28]

3. Seltzer poll though

She’s the best pollster in America and her poll out today is enough to make anyone turn to hard drugs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. It's one poll.

It's contradicted by the mean as well as A rated polls by WAPO and IBD Tipp and B+ rated polls like ISPSOS ans Suffolk.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Thx for posting I frequently look at 538. It's a solid poll, not an outlier

[Awsi Dooger]

7. However, House forecast down to 77.3% from 80.3% yesterday

That is more logical, IMO. The generic polling that exploded into double digit advantage does not make sense to me. I would make a huge wager against that type of gap.

We have long stretches of Trump approval rating below 40. But a House generic gap of double digits is basically unheard of. Nate Silver conceded in an article a couple of days ago that his House model is overly influenced by short term swings.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-in-their-best-position-yet-to-retake-the-house/

This is what he wrote: "I have a confession — although it’s one that I’ve made before. The method of calculating the generic ballot that we use on our generic ballot interactive, which currently shows Democrats ahead by 10.8 percentage points, is too aggressive and will usually overestimate swings."