44-year old Ayanna Pressley wins the 'Kennedy seat' ...something's happening here.

[bigtree]

...changing demographics are producing surprising primary outcomes in different areas of the country. Younger, more diverse (more black and Hispanic voters, more women), decidedly more progressive voters are generating some upsets, promising to expand our voter base in November.

These candidates can also generate energy and enthusiasm up and down the ballot for Dems. Something's happening here...

[budkin]

1. Extremely exciting!

As David Hogg put it, "the young people will win."

[bettyellen]

2. I like this!

[Voltaire2]

3. Capuano was a good progressive Democrat

but people are voting for change.

[Bettie]

8. Is Ms. Pressley not a good

progressive Democrat?

[Voltaire2]

10. Sorry I wasn't clear: she's great.

[Bettie]

20. OK. Good to know

primaries switch people around. A fresh perspective is useful to all of us.

[ConnorMarc]

4. Good. We need fighters.

The era of weak and feckless representatives is OVER!!

We need an army of Anthony Weiners.

[SharonClark]

6. Anthony Weiner? No thanks.

[Voltaire2]

7. Seriously.

About the last thing we need.

[honest.abe]

12. Absurd post.

[MoonRiver]

32. WTF?

[0rganism]

48. army of weiners? you were thinking of this, right?

Wiener,Wiener Wiener,Wiener Wiener,Wiener Wiener
One Wiener Next To Another Wiener...

[Blue_true]

50. You may want to rephrase that.

We need an army of young Jerry Browns.

[BeyondGeography]

51. Jerry Brown

Seconded. Nobody takes Republicans apart better than Jerry Brown.

[SharonClark]

5. Good news! We need new blood and exciting candidates.

[NurseJackie]

9. I prefer experience...

... rather than change for it's own sake.

[HipChick]

14. I prefer change,seems like you know what you are already going to get

With same old stale

[ehrnst]

25. Trump was definitely "change" and not the "same old stale."

Last edited Wed Sep 5, 2018, 03:29 PM - Edit history (1)

How did that work out?

I don't know about you, but I voted for Obama again in 2012 because "we knew what we were getting."

I wasn't going to vote for any challenger because "we knew what we were getting" made Obama "same old stale," as you are suggesting that you do with incumbents.

[HipChick]

30. Trump was already Unstable and Unhinged change and Unqualifed

for those that cared to look behind the media blitz

[ehrnst]

45. You said that you "prefer change," and not "the same old stale"

I was pointing out that not all "change" is good, and not all who are "same old stale" are bad.

Is that clearer?

And Pressley herself has said that there wasn't much difference between her and the incumbent...

[ehrnst]

46. Obama was definitely Democratic establishment and center left on many issues, as we know.

I was pointing out to the poster who said that they "preferred change" that not all change is "good" and not all "old stale, you know what you are getting" is bad.

Pressley herself said that there wasn't that much difference between her and the incumbent. She is younger, and a different race, but that doesn't mean there will be a lot of "change," policywise.

And didn't we all vote for Obama in 2012 because "we knew what we were getting?"

Is that clearer?

[oberliner]

11. The demographics haven't changed

In that district, they are pretty much the same as they were 10 years ago.

[HipChick]

13. Thanks for posting..seems like the goto

Story the media like to use

[oberliner]

15. You're welcome

There has certainly been a demographic shift from, say, 1970, but not much since 2000 (which is when Capuano first started in Congress).

In 2000, the Black population of Boston was 25% and in 2010 the Black population of Boston was 24% and today the estimate is basically unchanged.

[bigtree]

35. it's not just a 'story,' Democratic voters are changing in many regions

...those folks who are actually showing up to vote.

WP:

Millennials — who range in age from 22 to 37, according to the Pew Research Center — are on the cusp of becoming the largest generation in the United States. They are more left-leaning than their parents and grandparents and are therefore more likely to back Democrats. But they are also the most racially and ethnically diverse generation, and many of have vocalized the importance of being represented by people who look like them.

Or, as Pressley put it in her victory speech: “It’s not just good enough to see the Democrats back in power. It matters who those Democrats are."

[link:https://www.npr.org/2018/09/04/644700516/ayanna-pressleys-surprise-upset-shows-women-of-color-s-power-in-democratic-polit|
NPR]:

Pressley's victory is indicative of the the broader success of female Democrats this election cycle. She joins a number of other black women who've won their primaries this year, including Stacey Abrams, who's running for governor in Georgia, Lauren Underwood, running for a congressional seat in Illinois, and Jahana Hayes, who's also running for a seat in Congress from Connecticut.

The Democratic Party has referred to African-American women as the backbone of the party, but in recent years, some black organizers have expressed frustration that the party has not invested in recruiting black candidates. Pressley's victory is a sign that organizers and activists are no longer willing to wait for the party's blessing.

It's also a sign that issues of representation rather than ideology are motivating voters in Democratic primaries.

NYT:

Ms. Pressley unseated a 10-term congressman in a campaign supported largely by minorities, immigrants and college students. And she did so without the backing of key Democrats like Representative John Lewis of Georgia or former Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, both of whom endorsed her white opponent. Now Ms. Pressley is poised to become the state’s first nonwhite member of the House of Representatives.

Consider too Andrew Gillum’s victory in the Democratic nomination for Florida governor on Aug. 28. Florida Democrats and liberal donors like George Soros and Tom Steyer supported him over more centrist candidates. Mr. Gillum was also heavily endorsed by young black activists across the state, particularly the Dream Defenders who cut their teeth on protests around the killing of Trayvon Martin in 2012.

Unapologetically left in his orientation, Mr. Gillum has rejected the idea that he needs centrist Democratics to win. His sights are set on young people and progressive voters. Stacey Abrams of Georgia, whose strategy is similar, has a good chance to become the state’s first black female governor. Ben Jealous, the former head of the N.A.A.C.P., is vying to become Maryland’s first black governor, winning the state’s Democratic nomination by running to the left of his opponent.

We can also see this shift in big cities like Cleveland, Chicago and, recently, St. Louis County, which have elected prosecutors who are friendly with the Black Lives Matter movement. This summer, Wesley Bell, a City Council member from Ferguson, Mo. defeated Robert McCulloch, the seven-term St. Louis County prosecutor who was widely criticized for his handling of the Michael Brown killing.

Beyond historic firsts, this new class of candidates is pushing the Democratic party further left. And they also represent the new political power of black progressives who defy stereotypes of black politicians as wedded to respectability politics and unwilling to take on issues of people who live on the margins of the black community. It’s clear that the era of centrist black politicians is on the wane. The time of black progressives is in ascent.

[bigtree]

34. I'm talking about who is actually voting in the Democratic primary

...but you can hold onto whatever makes you feel comfortable.

This UPSET VICTORY was due to a shift in the individuals who have shown up to vote... like I said, younger, more diverse (women and black and Hispanic voters), and decidedly more progressive voters are expanding the base of voters in these contests, providing upsets like this one in several parts of the nation.

Ten years ago is a long time in politics. The ground can just open up right under you and swallow you up if you're caught standing still, expecting the political landscape to remain the same after a decade.

[LanternWaste]

36. 'Likely voters' seems a rather relevant demographic to ignore.

Rather than tying oneself to merely one sub-set of demographics, which in turn creates a smaller sample, which then creates a greater probability of inaccuracy (and statistical sampling holds regards for neither 'fair' nor 'enough').

[SkyDancer]

16. Another victory!

There is a huge movement underway and she beat a congressman who served for 10 terms. WOC who are running on a progressive platform are kicking some serious ass!

This is awesome!

Keep an eye on #MA3 which is too close to call this morning!

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[ehrnst]

28. She herself said that she wasn't that different from her progressive opponent.

It didn’t come out of nowhere. Everyone knew this would be a competitive race. The district was publicly polled at least three times (i.e. pollsters thought it worth surveying). Capuano spent more than $1.7 million on his defense, spurred in part by the knowledge that Pressley was deploying $767,000 of her own. Both sides aired television ads. An “upset” it may have been, but it should not have “stunned” anyone who was paying attention.

It wasn’t progressive vs. moderate. Pressley herself said that there was little daylight between her and Capuano on the issues. Capuano has a -.580 DW-Nominate score,1 making him the most liberal Democrat in the Massachusetts delegation and well to the left of Crowley. Meanwhile, more moderate Democrats like Rep. Richard Neal in Massachusetts’s 1st District and Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th District won their primaries by 40 and 47 percentage points, respectively. Ideology doesn’t explain Capuano’s loss.
It wasn’t insider vs. outsider. Pressley has been an at-large city councilor in Boston, the district’s largest city, for nine years. Before that, she worked for 16 years as a congressional aide to the most establishment Democrats imaginable, Joe Kennedy II and John Kerry. She won a rising star award from Emily’s List in 2015. She was no political newbie like Ocasio-Cortez and in fact was a well-credentialed political insider.

It (probably) wasn’t just white vs. nonwhite. Because of the 7th District’s dark-blue hue, Pressley is extremely likely to become the first woman of color to represent Massachusetts in Congress. People will be quick to connect that to the fact that non-Hispanic whites are a minority (42 percent) of the 7th District’s total population. However, non-Hispanic whites make up 55 percent of registered voters in the district, so it probably wasn’t just that nonwhites voted for Pressley and whites voted for Capuano. (This was also probably true of Ocasio-Cortez and Crowley, by the way.) This is apparent from the town-by-town results: Chelsea, which is just 23 percent non-Hispanic white, voted 54-46 for Capuano, while the aforementioned Somerville — 70 percent non-Hispanic white, 58 percent under the age of 35 — voted for Capuano just 50.4-49.6. We’ll have to wait for precinct-level results to know for sure, but it looks like Pressley cinched her victory by winning young, college-educated white voters.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-ayanna-pressleys-upset-win-in-massachusetts-isnt-really-like-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs/

[ehrnst]

29. And she definitely is fed up with the damning on the left of "identity politics"

Link to tweet

[Vinca]

17. We're watching a generational change and it makes me excited!

[SkyDancer]

18. Yup we are

and there is a massive shift taking place!

[disillusioned73]

21. & I am loving it..

didn't the corporate rag politico bury this whole notion last year?? The spin by the media is also entertaining, but not surprising..

[SkyDancer]

22. Ya they did

[leftynyc]

19. When they win the general

then I'll get excited. She's a terrific candidate in a blue district so she should easily win.

[womanofthehills]

42. She WILL BE Mass 1st African American women in congress - she has NO republican opposition Nov 6

Another woman who went out into the community and inspired new people to vote!

[Hortensis]

23. Gender and race adjustments are happening. Not ideology.

Ayana is a good liberal very similar to the politician she displaced. She's risen in office through time-honored political routes, and both candidates were endorsed by mainstream Democratic power centers.

Don't be distracted from her record by primary campaign rhetoric and dishonest media hyperbole. She's a good one, and no fool. Imo, her district did fine.

Also, remember, congressional seats should be neither "safe" for long careers nor so unstable that most people simply can't afford to run for what's often just a single term. When things go the way they should, there is reasonably frequent turnover on average, but not too frequent, and only some of the best loved last for decades.

[ananda]

26. She's another Beto.

Truly representative of liberal values!!!!

[NCTraveler]

27. How do you get to the thought she is more progressive?

That seems to be dishonest.

Pressley, on the other hand, criticized Sanders’s policy ideas and vision for the country while campaigning for Clinton. As Sanders stumped for universal health care and tuition-free college, Pressley declared at a Clinton campaign press conference in Boston that “plans without price tags are simply pandering.” In a debate hosted by WCVB, Pressley said she only recently began supporting “Medicare for All” because “the world has changed.”

During the 2016 campaign, she also dismissed the effort to overturn the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, a pivotal court case that opened the floodgates for corporate money into electoral politics. “I cannot think of one instance in my time as a Boston City Councillor when a constituent implored me to make repealing Citizens United a top priority,” she once wrote.

She only recently got on the single payer train. Who she beat has been cosponsoring Medicare for all for a decade.

This hold true in other areas as well.

People need to recognize the dishonest in the “progressive revolution” talk.

Pressley is going to be a great Democrat. Hopefully she will be as far to the left as the person she beat.

[NurseJackie]

31. Damn!! You've really put things back into perspective! I think...

... everyone needs a dose of reality.

[bigtree]

37. you're calling this post 'dishonest?' That's a non-starter for me. Stew in it for all I care

...you want to debate argue with my pov, fine.

But if you think I'm going to engage with you calling my posit a lie, you're really full of yourself.


Did you even notice I HAVE NOT CALLED HER 'MORE PROGRESSIVE?'

That's something right out of whatever you're defending in your mind. It's kind of pathetic, really, even outside of criticizing me for recognizing the trend. Trying to deny that these voters want more progressive politics and results is one of the most self-defeating things I think we can engage in here. Static politics produces a static party, static results. That's what these incumbents are experiencing. The party should take heed.

We definitely should not satisfy ourselves that politics as usual is going to generate the numbers we need at the voting polls in November.

[NCTraveler]

38. Yes, I think the narrative is dishonest.

I'm fine not debating you considering your rule limitations.

The op is promoting a dishonest narrative. That is no secret.

I am glad you recognize this is not a shift to the left in any way at all. Solid start.

Call me all of the childish names you want. I will not call you pathetic. I don't think you are. I'm not concerned if you engage with me. The narrative in your op makes me very comfortable with that. Don't think I won't come in here and drop some truth on such a flawed narrative. Your response is not necessary or even requested when I do so. It's not as much about you as an individual to me as I am to you in all of this.

[bigtree]

40. no it is not a dishonest narrative

...but this response of yours is just atrocious.

You called me a liar and you want comity? Now you're calling this 58 year old black man 'childish?'

What you've got is a block. I am not here for this.

[NCTraveler]

43. I did not ask for comity. Not sure where you are getting that from.

I simply stated I don't personally feel the need to delve into name calling. I simply won't join you there.

"Now you're calling this 58 year old black man 'childish?'"

Why do you think a fifty eight year old black man can't act childish? I have never heard such a thing. Is there something about either of the two metrics you mention that make my assertion that petty name calling is childish unable to be true. Strange metrics to hang your hat on.

[ismnotwasm]

33. K&R

[brooklynite]

39. I don't think anyone other that pundits considers this the "Kenndy seat"

[NCTraveler]

44. DWS and Joe Manchin won their primaries. Grayson lost big. Something's happening here..... nt

[JHan]

47. Something to think about eh..

something is happening somewhere, sometime...in different places

[GulfCoast66]

49. Every House District is different. Some radically so.

I am glad for Ms. Pressley. She will represent her district well as did the opponent she defeated.

Here in Central Florida 1st term Congress Member Soto crushed his challenge from Greyson and will return to the house.

While many on DU are bitching about the need for new blood the voters are making it happen. And that new blood will be a lot less white, which better reflects our republic.

Our Challenge in Florida is to insure we elect our first African American governor and ironically he may help pull long serving Senator Nelson to a victory.