General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMajor 538 shift in favor of Democratic control of House
Jumped 3% to 77.6% likelihood, and average gain of 36 seats
Both are high water marks, since the chart was posted several weeks ago at 75% debut. Earlier today it was 74% and 34 seats. The prior high I remember was 75.3% and 35 seats. I've seen as low as 71.5% and 33 seats.
Must have been sparked by the widening gap in recent generic House polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo
RandySF
(59,225 posts)They are a lot more bullish on Gina Ortiz Jones than I am.
George Eliot
(701 posts)Even 538 can be wrong. I'm still susceptible to thinking that Trump has more support than many are willing to admit. I'll wait and see.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)Hillary won the popular vote as predicted and wrote there was a chance of Trump winning the EV while losing the PV.
George Eliot
(701 posts)And the three million were Californians. Wrong is wrong even though people thought she had in the bag. I hope I'm wrong. Don't know what you think of Salena Zito but she was right about the 2016 results. You just can't underestimate the loyalty these people have to Trump. It is irrational.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)moronic talking point. I could just as easily say he would have lost he popular vote by MILLIONS MORE if only Texas didn't vote.
George Eliot
(701 posts)Last edited Tue Sep 4, 2018, 06:28 PM - Edit history (1)
But the fact is such areas do not reflect the United States as a whole. If you want presidents to just represent major cities - mostly on coasts - then change the rules. I wouldn't be against that. But our system recognizes middle America. So it is disingenuous to keep saying "she won..." because she didn't win.
BTW, Texas doesn't hold a candle to California.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)stop shoving words into my mouth. Your implication was that she only won the popular vote because of California - who are still Americans and it matters not at all where they come from. Same as the large republican population in Texas are still Americans. The fact is MILLIONS more voted for Hillary. NO state reflects the US as a whole. None.
Response to leftynyc (Reply #18)
Post removed
Hekate
(90,793 posts)...providing that eye-opener. Or did I misunderstand?
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Much better to force the other side to overcome higher odds. Let them unskew the polls while we rely on normalcy.
Also, Trump's approval rating on 538 is now 40.1%, which is the lowest since 40.0% on April 6
grantcart
(53,061 posts)1) 40 Republican Congressman retiring before they get defeated is a record
2) we aren't running 'geeric candidates'. As Randy has documented in excruciating detail these new candidates, mostly highly educated women but some outstanding young men Lamb, O'Rourke and others give us reason not to be complacent but confident, enthusiastic and determined to help.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I don't think this received enough attention, in terms of new voters and enthusiasm on the Democratic side:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/us/politics/andrew-gillum-florida-governor.html
"Tuesdays results showed that a quarter of Democratic ballots cast during Floridas early voting period came from people who had never voted in a primary before, according to the state party."
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)49.3% to 38.8%
Appears to be the highest gap since early January
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
SunSeeker
(51,698 posts)Old Crank
(3,628 posts)about 75 % also.
We still need to get out and vote and drag your friends out to vote. Or the predictions won't matter.
lindysalsagal
(20,730 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I never thought I would see that. Another uptick of nearly 3%
Specifically at 80.3% and 37 seats
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
lindysalsagal
(20,730 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Seats down to 36
Still a great turn of events the past few days. It may not seem like much but for reference purposes 71-72% is the NFL money line equivalent of a 5.5-6 point favorite in an NFL game while 79-80% is equivalent to 9.5-10 point favorite.
Small shifts in that range are very meaningful. That's why when Comey dropped Hillary from 80% likelihood on 538 down to 65-72% it was a massive downturn in expectancy, far beyond what was understood by voters and most pundits/analysts.