How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?

We still say you should hold onto your chips.

OK, first the new survey: Emerson College’s1 poll of registered voters, conducted online and through robo-calls, reported 38 percent support for Cruz and 37 percent for O’Rourke, well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. About a fifth of respondents remained undecided.

Emerson was the sixth consecutive pollster in our database to find the Texas Senate race within single digits

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/

[dchill]

1. "About a fifth of respondents remained undecided."

Whoa! That's pretty sizeable.

[louis c]

2. everyone in Texas has heard of Cruz, yet

Last edited Mon Sep 3, 2018, 10:36 AM - Edit history (1)

he only has 38% support. I have been involved in elections at all levels. A high profile incumbent at 38% this late in the game is in big trouble

[TomSlick]

3. That's Cruz's problem.

Everyone in Texas knows him.

[ananda]

20. Lol! And they are now getting to know Beto!

!!!

[leftieNanner]

26. And everybody hates Ted Cruz!

[msongs]

4. if dems stay home cruz wins. nt

[Iliyah]

5. No worries, shithole oops I mean t-rump to the rescue.

[SammyWinstonJack]

21. LOL! Cruz should be worried.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I wish Nate and Enten had participated

I read that article a few days ago. Not as in depth as I expected from 538. Turned into too much discussion regarding gap from typical August polling to the actual result, and the comments underneath likewise pounced on that aspect.

Years ago here TruthIsAll would have given Beto a 99.99% certainty of winning, since he would have assigned virtually all of the undecideds to Beto as the challenger.

Unfortunately that's not the way it works. Nate Silver looked at it extensively in 2010:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule/

Fortunately for Beto, Cruz was not consensus above 50% in all the early polls. There were a couple at 51% and one at 50% but others were as low as 47. That is very important because Nate picked up on something that I have used for decades...the overwhelming importance of early preference. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning in general elections, while late rallies are almost always overstated.

As Nate wrote in that article:

"The following corollary of Moran’s hypothesis is almost always true: if an incumbent has 50 percent or more of the vote in early polls, he will win re-election. This was true on 32 of 33 occasions; the lone exception was George Allen in Virginia, who had 51.5 percent of the vote in early polls in 2006 but lost re-election by less than a full point (after running a terrible campaign). It appears that once a voter is willing to express a preference for an incumbent candidate to a pollster, they rarely (although not never) change their minds and vote for the challenger instead."

[brooklynite]

14. Enten no longer works for 538

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Thanks...did not know that

I saw him on CNN recently with a big smile but I assumed it was supplemental to his 538 role

[helpisontheway]

7. Hope that smug @sshole loses his seat..No respect

for someone that would grovel to a man that said vile things about his wife and father. He would do anything to keep his seat.

[UTUSN]

8. The definition of a Lifetime Dem is: Repeated disappointment, so I'll wait till the results are in.

Besides the rallying, voting, prostletyzing, etc.

[lindysalsagal]

9. It's possible that the enthusiasm for the new guy will bring his voters out. No enthusiasm for ted.

[OBrien]

10. Bigly

Texas isn’t a red state as much as it’s a non voting state. I have lived here for 19 years and I have never seen more yard signs for ANY election as I have seen now...all for Beto. That tells me they are MOTIVATED voters. Cruz is in big trouble.

[Lisa0825]

11. I am in Texas, and I REALLLLLLy want Beto to win, but....

The same polls showing Beto neck and neck with Cruz showed Abbott with a 20 point lead over Valdez for governor. So we would either need people to vote cross-ballot, or low GOPer turnout. If people turn out for Abbott, they will likely vote down-ballot, so let's just hope for low enthusiasm/turnout on the right.

All that being said, I think Beto is GREAT for Texas, for helping push us to the blue side, and if not this year, I expect big things from him very soon.... maybe even a future Presidential candidate.

[populistdriven]

12. Arizona voted for Trump by +3.5% BUT passed a minimum wage increase by 60%

that is a 13 point spread on a core Republican issue so it is possible to get a large cross-ballot

[Wounded Bear]

13. Well, Trump districts have been moving 10-15 points to Dems this cycle...

If Teddie is leading by less than 5, he probably is in trouble.

At least I hope so.

[JCMach1]

15. Texas has straight party voting

So it's about turnout and winning Indy's... Very few Republicans will split their vote when the relatively popular Republican Incumbent Gov. Will probably win by 20pts...

The flippable R's were already against Cruz...

So good news is be progressive and play the ground game and get your people to the polls.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Straight ticket is gone for November 2020

But that obviously doesn't do Beto any good. And you are correct to mention it as an important variable. It's probably one of the reasons Texas votes so red in midterm years...lazy voters

[JCMach1]

23. Gone, that's actually good news

[DFW]

16. Singing this every day until the election!

[Liberal In Texas]

19. As always in Texas, we have to fight voter apathy as much as the repubs.

If we get high turnout, we win. Even with gerrymandering and voter ID laws.

[oberliner]

22. Mucho

He's going to lose. Blue Wave!

[MineralMan]

25. Are you in Texas? Will you be participating in GOTV there?

That's what it will depend on, really. The funding is there. All that is needed is an unprecedented turnout of Democratic voters.

I'm not there, sadly, so I can't help with GOTV. I have the wrong accent, anyhow.

[oberliner]

28. I am not in Texas

Just have a hunch that Ted is going to lose. I've sent a small donation to Beto.

[MineralMan]

24. GOTV will make the difference.

The deplorables will turn out to vote for Cruz. Can we get enough voters to come to the polls to elect O'Rourke? I don't know. I'm not in Texas and don't know how difficult that will be.

It's doable, but will Texas Democrats do it? I guess we'll find out in November.

[tonyt53]

27. Hate to say/see it, but Cruz by 4%. People won't vote. Please make a liar out of me!!!!!