Wow -David Wasserman changed his projection ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

Dave Wasserman
✔
@Redistrict
I take that back - Andrew Gillum (D) turning in a sensational Election Day performance. Not sure Graham (D)'s lead can survive Broward. #FLGOV

5:04 PM - Aug 28, 2018
48
37 people are talking about this

NOW DELETED TWEET

Dave Wasserman
✔
@Redistrict
I take that back - Andrew Gillum (D) turning in a sensational Election Day performance. Not sure Graham (D)'s lead can survive Broward. #FLGOV

5:04 PM - Aug 28, 2018
48
37 people are talking about this

[bearsfootball516]

1. This is something!

[rzemanfl]

2. Cool. Everyone in this house voted for Gillum. n/t

[babylonsister]

22. I did, too!

[Wounded Bear]

3. Just heard from Kornacki...

Graham's base is essentially the panhandle, and they're in the Central time zone and are not in yet.

Stay tuned.

[bearsfootball516]

8. I'd have to say it's advantage Gillium right now.

She does still have vote out in the panhandle, but he's turning out voters in urban areas at such a huge rate that it might not matter for her.

As I type this, he actually took the lead.

[oberliner]

16. Kornacki wrong as per usual

[oberliner]

4. Andrew Gillum with the upset!

[Scurrilous]

5. It's currently neck and neck.

https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/florida-primary-results

[MaryMagdaline]

9. There were several good candidates. May the best one win!

[mcar]

6. I was not expecting this

I saw that Gillum was surging in these later days, but Damn!

[mcar]

7. Gillum just took the lead!

69% in, still way close. What a great race!

[Scurrilous]

10. I think he's going to win.

[mcar]

12. Only 1% of Broward Cty votes are in, for some reason

That could be huge for Gillum!

[Awsi Dooger]

14. If that's true I don't see how Graham wins

Should be huge net out of Broward for him

Gillum begain advertising in South Florida only in recent days but it was obviously effective

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I agree with this post from 538's live primary coverage

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON 8:15 PM

I sort of see Graham vs. Putnam as the governor’s race you’d have predicted in the pre-Trump era, and Gillum vs. DeSantis as the governor’s race that would really embody where the parties are going.

[mcar]

13. Such a good point!

[Awsi Dooger]

17. I was tempted to steal it as my own words

But she deserved credit.

538 does a great job on election night coverage, although Nate Silver deserves to be smacked in the head for taking so many swipes at the state of Florida and city of Miami tonight

[Sunsky]

15. Either candidate will be good for FL

However, as I've stated in the Florida group a few days ago- Graham barely campaigned in South Florida. Her ads didn't play here until a few days before the election. Any Democrat who neglects South FL does so at their own peril. I found out after I voted for Gillum, that she's our beloved Bob Graham's daughter. That knowledge would've given her the edge over Gillum in my book. I will gladly vote for whoever wins in Nov. If she wins, I hope she'll have a more robust campaign.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. All the major candidates were late in South Florida

We saw more of Jeff Greene than the others combined

[Sunsky]

21. I saw way more Gillum and Levine

Canvassers. Gillum's ads were all over the airways (both radio and television). Yes we were bombarded by Greene and Levine's ads but I heard more about Graham here on DU than anywhere else. Many of my family members and associates didn't even hear about Gwen. Her ads didn't play until a few days before the elections. I read an article which states that she knew she had a South FL problem and had hoped that a concert would help her GOTV. Really?

[Scurrilous]

18. 77% precincts reporting:

Andrew Gillum 467,550 33%

Gwen Graham 444,088 32%

Philip Levine 283,729 20%

Jeff Greene 144,934 10%

Chris King 35,856 3%

John Wetherbee 13,722 1%

Alex Lundmark 8,165 1%

https://www.vox.com/a/primary-election-results-august-2018/florida-primary-results

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Another very good post on 538

NATHANIEL RAKICH 9:01 PM

"I think Florida tonight is an example of how momentum — a dirty word around here, I know — might actually be a real thing in primaries (not in general elections). The candidates are much more interchangeable ideologically, and there is the potential for late movement as people try to vote strategically. Gillum was surging over the last few polls of the race, and a progressive coalition spent $3.5 million on GOTV for him at the last minute."

***

Exactly. You always have to respect momentum in primaries because likeminded people can shift together. The tide can go well beyond expectation. But general elections are so much more rigid. I can't count how many wagers I have won against the momentum in general elections, when the late hype is toward the trailing candidate. They almost never get over the hump.

But it was also the reason I got briefly overconfident with Hillary two years ago. I posted on the Finheaven sports forum that late rallies don't happen in general elections, not from 6 point margins. Then Comey showed up two days later