Forecasting the race for the House (fivethirtyeight - nate silver)

[left-of-center2012]

full report at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[2naSalit]

1. Kind of resembles a

BLUE WAVE!!

[workinclasszero]

2. Yes indeed!

GOTV

[FakeNoose]

21. We need it

Go Democrats - Get Out The Vote!
Love you all!

[Wounded Bear]

3. I hope that is a conservative estimate...

[workinclasszero]

4. If every young person that hates what

Trump and the GOP are doing to this country, went to the polls and voted in the midterms....

We could destroy the republicans and make America a great place again for working class people. We could transform this nation.

[Wounded Bear]

5. True that...

[peggysue2]

8. And that's exactly what we must do

Young, middle-aged, old. Wealthy, middle-class/working class, poor. Democrats, Indies, Disgusted Republicans.

Shoulder-to-shoulder. We vote we win, not simply for the Democratic Party but for the country.

[octoberlib]

6. Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah, hey -ey-ey , GOODBYE!

Now, everybody's just gotta get out and vote and if past elections predict the future, it looks like they are.

[Qutzupalotl]

7. Looking good, but we also need to retake the Senate

in order to control the agenda and bring a conviction vote to the floor.

I realize getting a few Republicans to vote to convict is also a heavy lift, but that calculation might change once Mueller is done. I expect there will be serious charges. However, there won’t be a Senate vote at all if McConnell is still majority leader.

[NurseJackie]

9. Can't we have both... the house AND senate?

Please?

[LiberalFighter]

10. That is what I want.

[lame54]

11. Where does...

Russia, gerrymandering and voter suppression fit into this model

[TrollBuster9090]

19. Good point, but at least now....

...at least now those three things are in the public eye. Ten years ago, most Democrats were unaware of the tricks Republicans use to win elections. They foolishly thought elections were actually a reflection of public sentiment, and foolishly thought elections were fair. The whole country has been paying a price for that foolishness for decades.

The gerrymandering and voter caging have always been problems, as any Democrats in the south know very well. But the big, dumb, happy north and west have been blissfully unaware of it. Gerrymandering became a HUGE problem in 2010, because the Republicans KNEW the only tactic they had left was gerrymandering; and they deliberately targeted STATE legislatures to gerrymander the congressional districts right after the 2010 CENSUS.

Hopefully the REVERSE will happen this time! And by 'reverse' I don't expect Democrats to deliberately rig the election map to favor Democrats. Only Republicans are willing to fight THAT dirty. By 'reverse' I mean I hope they'll make LAWS that FORBID congressional districts to be drawn by partisan hacks.

[Meadowoak]

12. Now half the Dems will just stay home, cause they will think we have this thing won.

[Fred Sanders]

15. Defeatist when the tide is high...how about when it is low? Great news is great news!

Last edited Wed Aug 29, 2018, 07:08 PM - Edit history (1)

D enthusiasm has never been higher, as well!

[Meadowoak]

17. It will be even greater news if everyone votes and we win.

[TrollBuster9090]

20. I'm hoping that sentiment was beaten out of Democrats in 2016.

Fool me once....

So many people were lulled into staying home on election day by the stupid forecasts that Hillary Clinton was a sure thing. (Including Nate Silver, who is going to have to work damned hard to regain our trust.)

And, simultaneously, a lot of other people were hoodwinked with the GREEN PARTY bullshit about both parties being the same. I hope it's now painfully obvious to all the asshole idiots who wasted their vote on third parties that the two major parties are NOT the same.

[Toorich]

13. each of us must vote and....

.... take at least 2 others to the poll who would otherwise not go (of course, have a
heart-to-heart first to learn how they will vote) and thereby cast 3 votes.

[rurallib]

14. did they run that by the Russians for their input?

[ZeroSomeBrains]

16. This is great but...

The senate is more important than the house. Getting the senate would mean we could keep republicans from putting in another member of the supreme court. The house looks like a decent bet to go democratic but no complacency. Vote dems!

[EndGOPPropaganda]

18. Canvass. Call. Register. Vote!

Make it 95% chance!

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Want to point out a theoretical 2.5% rise in our House chances

538 is now 74.2% likelihood of retaking the House, and the projection for average seats gained rose from 33 to 34.

You'll note the differences from the frozen version atop this thread to current:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

That is a significant move. It is the first time above 74% in at least a week. I'm not sure what caused it...maybe a favorable primary result or several.