NBC/WSJ poll: Trump approval 'remarkably stable' after a stormy week of bad news

[oberliner]

WASHINGTON — After a week that saw President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman convicted on eight counts of fraud and his former lawyer plead guilty to felony campaign finance charges, the president's job approval rating remains virtually unchanged, new polling from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows.

But the stability in Trump's approval rating also comes as more than half of voters say he has not been honest and truthful regarding the ongoing special counsel investigation by Robert Mueller. And fewer than three-in-ten voters are convinced that Trump himself is not implicated in the wrongdoing of the six of his associates who have now either been convicted of crimes or have pled guilty.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-trump-approval-remarkably-stable-after-stormy-week-n903626?cid=eml_pol_20180826

[True Dough]

1. The die-hards won't be budged

Dense as bricks.

[oberliner]

3. It's amazing

Literally nothing will dissuade them.

[fallout87]

23. Impeachment AND conviction is a pipe dream

In order to impeach and convict... his numbers will need to be in the 20's or low 30's. Doesn't look likely. If you impeach and dont convict, there is backlash (see Clinton in the 90's).

We will beat Trump at the ballot box.

[Hortensis]

46. No. "Amazing" to some, expected by experts.

Threats to the power of their chosen leader from political opponents strengthen support. That's just the way it is. Nixon was unpopular with most of the right his presidency was seen as under attack by the left. Then they rallied in ferocious loyalty to their leader and even reelected him by good numbers with Watergate unresolved.

Authoritarian types (most of those still identifying as Republicans) tend to see Trump as the strong leader they crave, and they trust him to lead them to victory through the evil Democrats. Others just hang in out of partisan determination for victory against whatever evils they imagine liberalism to be.

When the first group finally accepts that they've been backing a weakling (it was extremely close to the end for W, the very last weeks), support will mostly evaporate. The second group already suspects or knows that, but when mounting proven malfeasance points to the inevitable, they should dissociate themselves from him. As is starting to happen cautiously in congress and apparently among some who have decided to be "independents." Self-identified Republicans are down to about 24-26% now.

At least that's how they've reacted overall in the past. First comes awareness that they backed a dud, then comes withdrawal of support and acceptance of action against their former leader.

[fallout87]

58. No. And the history of the US

should tell you how difficult it is to remove a president. I'm sure the same "experts" you cite thought there was no way he'd be elected. The only way tRump gets removed is if the economy tanks and his numbers go into the 20's. That's what happened to nixon. An remember, there was no Fox, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. when Nixon fell.

[Hortensis]

65. I'm talking about behavior of party supporters.

Please don't answer if you're not going to read and consider how your opinions might intersect my comments.

I'm very aware of how difficult it is to remove a president, and believe it should be. I don't think anything in my post suggests otherwise. Bipartisan support among the electorate for removal is hugely important, and the factors you address would be expected to have a strong effect on that.

[fallout87]

72. Here's where I disagree:

When the first group finally accepts that they've been backing a weakling (it was extremely close to the end for W, the very last weeks), support will mostly evaporate.

Your whole premise is wrong. He has a cult following, and they will back him no matter what. We see it everyday despite the nonstop scandals. Likening Trump like Bush is off base.

[Hortensis]

73. Okay. But W had a strong cult following also.

He was fit to be an insurance salesman, maybe run his own agency eventually in his mature years, but he really would benefit from guidance and discipline from a more competent person. Remember all the businesses he was set up in that he ran into the ground?

Instead, W became a leader of tens of millions who supported all the way his lies to them, his crimes against humanity, his gross incompetence and ignorance (unsurpassed until Trump), and the hundreds of thousands of needless, tragic deaths he caused. Some of his followers and/or their children died needlessly, and they praised him.

W was strongly authoritarian in his beliefs and did a great deal to undermine democracy during his presidency that people don't really realize.

Almost the entire world was so happy when we reassured them by electing a competent, principled man like Obama, but not W's followers. They wanted a stronger version of him, not better. And certainly not less authoritarian.

I'm describing hard-core authoritarians, who make up most to all of the remaining 24-26% of Americans who identify as Republicans. They choose leaders and then support their actions without question as long as the cult delusion is sustained. If they discover, as I said, that they've backed a dud, a weakling, they need another strong man to follow. This isn't some imagining of my own. You might read about authoritarian personalities. The vast majority are social conservatives who have been taught to despise and attack liberals and everything liberals do. They want a leader who promises to destroy us, and right now they've given their unquestioned loyalty to Trump.

[still_one]

34. Why is that amazing? 30% of the populous believe that President Obama isn't an American.

40% of the populace had no problem voting for a racist, sexist, bigot.

People who have those convictions do not change those convictions easily, and the influence of social media, and other mediums of propaganda have taken us back to those "good ole day"


There is one thing that I don't think has been reflected adequately in polls, and that is the feeling I hav that there are republicans, who are very conservative, who are very upset with the direction of their party. Problem is I don't think they are motivated enough to vote them out of office, though it might surpress their voter turnout, which makes it even more imperative why Democrats and independents who are very upset by the turn of things need to get out and vote.


I agree, nothing will dissuade them

The George Wallaces, Lester Maddox's, etc is coming out of the shadows, and it is quite alarming.

[oberliner]

60. Yeah, I guess amazing is not the right word

Depressing.

[still_one]

63. I am very depressed about it also

[workinclasszero]

6. The only answer is a blue wave

in the midterms to start the healing of this nation from the Trump disease.

[Blue_true]

66. Exactly, that is why the other 61-65% must forget their differences and get rid of that bastard. nt

[gldstwmn]

75. There are rumors that

Trump Jr. may be indicted this week.

[True Dough]

76. Oh please!

OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE! OH PLEASE!

Let it be so!

[gldstwmn]

81. I'm good with that as long as Daddy goes with. n/t

[John Fante]

2. Sorry to ruin the party, but 41.8% is atrocious

given the fact that we're involved in no unpopular wars and the economy is holding up remarkably well.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[oberliner]

4. I hope we see it drop to 30

[Azathoth]

9. Not physically possible

Trump can't go below 38-39%. Not even if he rapes and kills a child on the White House lawn.

[ooky]

16. Right. If he does that they will blame it on made up

"Obummer" and "Hildabeast" plots.

[NYC Liberal]

62. Bush got down to 19%.

But of course that was after almost 8 years, two wars, and the Katrina disaster (among everything else).

[John Fante]

19. It would take a recession or a disastrous military operation, like

war with Iran or NK, to get Trump's numbers permanently below 40%. IMO

How awful does a person have to be to still support this man after the family seperation stuff?

[Garrett78]

7. And his approval rating has been far steadier than that of any of his predecessors.

Simply put, he has a cult following. He really could shoot someone on 5th Avenue in broad daylight.

[John Fante]

20. The lone bright spot is that Trump's room for improvement is minescule.

Any other POTUS in his shoes would he sitting on 55-60% approval ratings right now. Clinton in the late '90s, for example.

[Garrett78]

21. He has a relatively low ceiling and a relatively high floor.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. I disagree he has a relatively high floor.

His low is being inflated a lot like Clinton's was in the late the late 90s through a strong economy. Clinton would have faced a larger backlash had the whole Lewinsky affair happened with an economy Bush was working with in the early 00s or Obama went through throughout his whole first term. But because the economy was at historically high levels, people were far more forgiving. They could tolerate the actions because personally they were doing okay and as long as they could do okay what the president was doing in his personal life really didn't matter.

Now it's not quite the same but I fully believe Trump's numbers are inflated by the economy. That's bad news for him because we saw what this economy should be doing to a presidential approval: see Obama the last two years of his presidency.

There are people out there who don't like Trump but tolerate the bullshit because their 401K has done the best it's ever done the last two years. They tolerate him because, on the whole, the economy is pretty good.

I do not believe 41% of this country is hardcore Trump supporters. I believe it's probably closer to 30%. That additional 10% that is boosting his approval above horrific goes away the second the economy tanks. If we enter a recession between now and 2020, his approval will drop even further.

Really, unless Mueller has a damning smoking gun that leads back to Trump committing real collusion and treason, the only two events, IMO, that will crater his approval are:

Economic recession (as explained).

Massive casualties at war (Bush had a generally healthy economy between 2004-2007 but was saddled with a shit-show in Iraq that overwhelmed any positivity with the economy).

I don't think the latter will happen beyond an absurd war with NK or Iran, but there are signs the US may be heading for a recession soon. If it does, Trump's numbers will drop below 40% easily.

[Garrett78]

44. What I mean is that I don't expect him to ever drop below 30% or so. Given how atrocious he is...

...that's incredible. Due to his cult following, I don't think we'll see sub-25 like Truman and Nixon experienced.

[Drunken Irishman]

74. I could see him getting to Bush levels. I think Gallup had his low at 25%.

[Demovictory9]

50. 40% of the population are VERY VERY happy with his racial stances... he's against THEM

they understand that.

[Eliot Rosewater]

52. His approval rating is being PROMOTED here, thanks for pushing back as we all should

[Wellstone ruled]

5. WSJ and polling is a total joke.

[Garrett78]

8. It's more or less in line with other polls. We need to accept that a large percentage of...

...our fellow citizens are racist, sexist, hypocritical assholes.

[Wellstone ruled]

25. Sorry,can not agree.

Anything Murdoch associated is suspect at best. As far as NBC,this satisfies their attempt to create something out of whole cloth.


Just look back to this time in 2016.

[Garrett78]

29. But it is in line with other polls. That's just a fact. 538's aggregate has him at right around 42.

[still_one]

35. That is the harsh reality

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. He is at 41.8 at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Drunken Irishman is right. The economy is preventing Trump's numbers from collapsing. If we were in recession his approval numbers would be in the high twenties like Nixon in the Summer of 1974. What's ignored in the comparisons between Watergate and Corruptiongate is that the nation was in a recession in the former.

[Garrett78]

47. I don't think he'd be in the 20s. We all realize that in this economy...

...other presidents would have a much higher approval rating. On the flip side, other presidents would see a substantial drop if the economy were to turn sour. But we aren't talking about other presidents. We're talking about Trump and his cult following.

As bad as Trump is (and he just had a horrible week), his approval rating has been far steadier than *any* predecessor. It would take a lot more than a recession to get Trump below 30. At the same time, his rating isn't going to get any higher than it's been for the last 19 months.

Trump's ceiling is very low and his floor is relatively high--when compared to predecessors.

[fallout87]

24. No, it isn't. 538 rates them at A-

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Wellstone ruled]

26. Wow,still a

skeptic at best.

[Eliot Rosewater]

54. True but there is an agenda here that is undeniable yet continues, HERE

[meadowlander]

10. Starting to think we've been invaded by actual pod people.

Alternately 41% of Americans have been in a coma all year and woke up 3 seconds before the poll.

[oberliner]

13. Believe it or not, they actually like him

Which is even more scary than the pod people theory.

[windwardbmh]

11. I don't understand

How can trump have a 40% approval rating when 26% of voting population voted for him?

[oberliner]

12. Are you seriously asking this question?

[Chemisse]

78. The 26% figure is flying around out there, and is confusing if you don't know a whole lot

and how statistics are used in elections.

[oberliner]

80. It's about the same figure that most winning candidates get

[Chemisse]

87. My point is that we usually talk about the race in terms of the percent who voted for each candidate

among those who voted.

The 26% figure is being discussed because it shows how few people in this country actually cast a vote for Trump.

Was I really that unclear? I thought it would be nice to cut the new poster some slack.

[oberliner]

88. Gotcha

I guess I misunderstood what you were trying to communicate.

[Chemisse]

89. Thanks.

[Chemisse]

77. That percentage is based on the fact that around half of the voters stayed home.

And we don't know or count who they would have voted for, had they made it to the polls.

Among those who got out and voted, 46% who voted for him.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

14. tRump has 100% approval rating with the,

Ku Klux Klan.

[Turbineguy]

15. There hasn't really been all that much surprising news lately.

We already know his friends and associates are crooks. Illegitimate children, no surprise there.

And if he'd cut out and eaten Mother Teresa's heart, his cult would still love him.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

17. This is what cultists look like

We have to admit that Trumpism has nothing to do with policy and probably never did. It's all about the culture warz and their support for him has become cult-like at this point. Trumpism has become a type of political religion for many where people have thrown off all sorts of common sense and reason. They support him purely to stick it to "the Libs." I really don't think they care that he's a criminal at this point. That says more about them and the decline of the American electorate than anything else.

[Downtown Hound]

18. Is anybody surprised?

The Trump cult doesn't live in reality and isn't governed by logic. They are a cult. The only thing it would take to drive them away from Trump is if the economy gave out, and even then, his approval would probably bottom out in the low 30's. The rest of that 30-34 percent would follow him into the fires of hell if he told them to.

That is the true definition of cult.

[MoonRiver]

22. All "they" care about are the fetuses.

I know people who voted for and support him, yet also hate him. Getting anti-choice justices on the SC is literally all they care about.

[stonecutter357]

27. #facknews !

[Renew Deal]

28. The problem isn't just Trump. It's the entire republican party

[retread]

30. That will change when the economy enters its recession cycle. n/t

[qwlauren35]

31. Approval is a funny word.

His supporters approve of his results, they approve of his bluster, they approve of his anti-government attitude, and his ability to be a piece of shit but still move forward with Republican social policies.

Having campaign finance issues hasn't changed any of that, so there is no reason for his approval ratings to change.

[Kingofalldems]

32. Is someone taunting us?

[Squinch]

39. Isn't that someone ALWAYS taunting us? Also, cherry picking.

[Kingofalldems]

48. Every freaking day. It's tiresome.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Well, there are a lot worse polls for Trump that are just as or more current.

[Eliot Rosewater]

57. Yeah but that is NOT what is in the best interests of some. THIS poll is for some reason

[Bernardo de La Paz]

33. a "stormy" week. . . . nt

[Jamaal510]

91. +1

[Awsi Dooger]

37. When making predictions, always ignore today

The people who delighted in last week's news didn't exactly ignore today. They overreacted to absurd degree, which is extremely typical. Watch hour after hour of pundits on cable and somehow believe it is transferring to the public at large.

You actually had posters here and elsewhere proclaiming the end was near. Heck, you had the genius who wrote the book on Trump asserting that he would step down.

It is all lunacy. Donald Trump will serve a full term, remain this popular with his devotees, and in all likelihood his approval rating will rise in 2020 as he seeks re-election. Incumbency is a massive, massive advantage, aligning with benefit of a doubt. Only Jimmy Carter in more than a century has lost when it is an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term.

If any Republican was elected in 2016 we had to be fully aware that it would likely mean two terms. That is the benefit of looking at things from a broad scope and always ignoring today. I can hope for Donald Trump to be defeated in 2020 but I do not believe it will happen. However, the good news is that at least this Republican gives us a chance to knock him out after one term. A standard Republican would have been a cinch as incumbent, with an economy like this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. The bull market and the economic expansion are already the longest in history.

Betting it continues another two years seems like a risky bet. He can never win re-election if America is in recession. I don't believe any president in modern history, if not all of history has, and Trump won't be the first.

[bearsfootball516]

79. That recession has to happen, first.

It very well may. But it also might not. We don't really know. People have been predicting the economy would crash since November 2016. Almost two years later, we're still waiting.

[Quixote1818]

38. It has dropped a bit at 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[oberliner]

41. No it hasn't

Pretty much the same since May.

[John Fante]

51. See post #37.

There is no hope for us Democrats. We may as well shoot ourselves now and get it over with. Trump and his awe-inspiring 41.8% approval rating is a shoo-in for a second term. Ivanka will follow him, followed by Junior.

[oberliner]

56. Don't give up hope

The midterms could be the beginning of an important shift away from Republican rule.

[Doodley]

40. Democrat lawmakers and candidates need to make a stronger case.

Trump and the GOP redefined Hillary Clinton who had approval in the sixty percents as Secretary of State. We need to redefine Trump. For example, ask most people who has been better at controlling deficits and government borrowing and they will say Trump is better than Obama. We have to take control of the narrative.

[oberliner]

55. Agreed

This is very well stated.

[Kingofalldems]

49. Mueller doesn't go by polls, oberliner.

Too bad for GOP sympathizers on the internet.

[oberliner]

53. The Congressional Republicans do

And, unfortunately, they will get to decide what action to take with respect to whatever Mueller presents to them.

Unless we take control of the House and Senate in the midterms!

[miss-nasty]

59. Don't BOO!!!

🇺🇸 VOTE! 🇺🇸

[oberliner]

61. I wish I could vote in a swing state

[miss-nasty]

67. Don't give up...

even your state may swing. I am not well but plan to give it my all!!! I'm in a red state and I'm a registered republican. That's said, I've just not had the opportunity to declare anything different but not not a republican for long!!!

[oberliner]

68. Why are you a registered Republican?

[miss-nasty]

69. In May of 2016 I was

Still a republican and lived in a state that requires me to declare. I changed parties to vote for democrat for Hillary when she became the nominee. There was no way I was joining the party of tRump - I chose to leave.

[oberliner]

70. Thanks for sharing that

Good job leaving the Republican party. Hopefully many more will follow!

[miss-nasty]

71. They have me questioning my faith

but I'm still praying for them to find their way with all of the vitriol and hate spewing from the POTUS mouth and faux snooze propagandists. It's really sad - I've lost many friends and even close family over it - I'm damn offended by their hate!!! They're a majority of typical redneck supporters lost in life and simply stuck in decades gone "bye bye"...not that there's anything wrong with bein' a redneck I will always be one. I don't have any use for any of them except my daughter and her family - I will always love her and try to teach her by example - yes I love her even for her ignorant decisions. Believe me - she knows exactly how I feel as one of my grands said to me last Friday on the way to school that he decided he didn't like the orange turd in the White House.

[dem4decades]

64. In a related poll, the percentage of idiots remained stable.

[oberliner]

84. Yep

Well put.

[Doodley]

82. But Trump"s mental state remains unstable.

[tenderfoot]

83. LOL

[oberliner]

85. One has to laugh - crying won't help, that's for sure

[Awsi Dooger]

86. We are increasingly dependent on YouGov

That's not where I want to be. If you look at 538's list of Trump approval polls, the only two recent non-adjusted numbers lower than 40 in there have been from YouGov. I just joined YouGov. It's a damn online random site where they throw you a survey whenever they feel like it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Outside of YouGov you have to go back to that ARG poll to find 38%. But the non-YouGov polls since ARG have unadjusted numbers of 45-48-44-46-46-41-44.

As a handicapper and gambler, that is shocking at face value. And I despise adjustments. I'm sure posters here will look at the specific pollsters and adjust all over the place....sharply downward. But it's like explaining. The more you are adjusting the more you are losing.

We need non-YouGov sources to start consistently reporting unadjusted numbers of 42 and lower. Otherwise I've got to believe Donald Trump's actual approval is higher than conventional wisdom accounts for.

[Thunderbeast]

90. Must face reality....Neatly half of Americans are OK with racism.

I was SHOCKED!, SHOCKED! when they bought fear and racism to elect Reagan. How could they? Why did they tolerate his dim-witted governance? Remember; Reagan opened his campaign in Philadelphia Mississippi where three young civil rights workers were famously lynched.

I was ASTONISHED! when they refused to count the Florida votes; Turning the election over to the supreme Court in another Republican campaign based on race-baiting and fear. Bush ran against abortion and gay rights.

Words can't describe how I felt when these cretins made it close enough in the rust belt to allow the Russians to steal the electoral college for David Dennison. We did not have to decode his racist rants or rapist boasts.

Let's face it. We live amongst some of the most ignorant bigots on the planet. Most still believe in a virgin-born messiah who rose from the dead who will send you to Hell if you break their rules. They wanted a KING. They got one.

Once again, these ignorant fools fell for the big lie. The masters took the pie, and the brown people want to share the crumbs.

I am done being astonished. I fell for the lie of American exceptionalism when I was a child. As a country, we behave like the greedy hypocrites that the rest of the world has known forever.