Nate Silver (538) has his House model up

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/


PRO TIP- Events with a 75% probability occur 75% of the time. They don't occur all the time.

[Fla Dem]

1. That's pretty awesome. Thanks for posting. nt

[KPN]

2. Thanks for the protip!

Oh, and thanks for bringing this potential good news to our attention. No sarcasm here! 5638 is right way more often than not, even if Nate's only showing 75% chance.

[SoCalDem]

3. Hmmmm.. Anyone else notice this?

In the decades where paper ballots were the norm (except fpr the ;ever states), Dems pretty much prevailed...

and then...

we get computer screen/digital ballot readers etc, and WHAMMO!!! repubs start "winning"

what a co-ink-i-dink

[DesertRat]

4. Silver says these are the same odds that Hillary had of winning in 2016 - 70-75%

Link to tweet

Also:

Link to tweet

With a broad playing field, the range of outcomes is quite wide: the middle 80 percent of the probability distribution covers everything from a 14-seat gain for Democrats (not enough to take the House) to 58 (!!) seats.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I would estimate lower than 75%

I prefer the number on Predictwise, currently 64%

https://predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house

Polls are fine but other variables mingle. Predictwise does a smart job of blending polls, betting markets and fundamentals like incumbency, which is always understated in terms of House races. I posted the other day that I believe our female nominees are going to struggle to oust incumbents. For whatever reason that post was not preferred and eventually removed, but I'll stand by the opinion. Independent male voters tend to shy away from the challenger females.

Besides, the economy and stock market are very strong. The market is up 1.5% today. If outlook remains strong until November it is going to limit the wave. That is simply logic...partisanship set aside