KS-GOV: Kobach Primary Victory Moves Race to Toss Up

[RandySF]

A week after the polls closed, Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer conceded the primary to Secretary of State Kris Kobach. While Kobach’s lead over Colyer dwindled to less than 100 votes two days after the primary, Kobach pulled ahead once county officials started counting provisional ballots. By the end of the day on August 14, Kobach’s lead had expanded to 345 votes. But, Kobach’s victory isn’t necessarily good news as most GOP strategists consider him to be a flawed nominee. As a result, the race moves to the Toss Up.

Kobach has long been a vocal supporter of former Gov. Sam Brownback and his policies. Brownback was very unpopular when he left office this spring and many voters now oppose the deep tax cuts that led to steep reductions in funding for education and other government services. Kobach is also a close ally of President Trump, who endorsed him in the primary. In a pre-primary poll of likely Republican primary voters, Trump’s job approval rating was just 69 percent, which is lower than it should be. Trump had appointed Kobach to be the vice chairman of his now defunct Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, which collapsed under the weight of controversy. All this provides Democrats with ample fodder to wield against Kobach.

State Sen. Laura Kelly won the Democratic nomination with 52 percent of the vote in a five-way field: former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer placed second with 20 percent. Kelly’s message focuses on restoring funding for education.

In the general election, voters are looking at a competitive three-way race with Greg Orman, a businessman who is running as an independent. Orman ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014, giving GOP U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts a competitive race. While Orman could siphon votes away from Kelly, he is also likely to win over some Republican votes, especially from Colyer supporters looking for an alternative to Kobach. Three-way races are complicated equations. In a state as Republican as Kansas, the GOP nominee would normally be at least a slight favorite, but Kobach is controversial enough to put this race in the Toss Up column.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/kansas-governor/kobach-primary-victory-moves-race-toss

[budkin]

1. I for one was glad to hear Kobach won... because now we have a shot

Who'd have thought we had a shot at Kansas of all places?

[beachbum bob]

2. Orman will end up giving Kobach the victory, as moderate republicans will vote for him

and if they vote for Kelly, Kobach would certainly lose

[LonePirate]

3. Articles like this are junk. Colyer was Brownback's running mate. His supporters liked Brownback.

There are two questions to answer regarding this race.

1. Do Republican women, especially college graduates in Johnson County and Wichita, stay loyal to the party and vote for Kobach or do they opt for Kelly? If they vote for Ormand, that helps Kelly.

2. Do independents who would probably tilt to Kelly in a two-way race, vote for Ormand? If so, that helps Kobach.

For Kelly to win, there needs to be a large Dem turnout plus she needs to win a huge share of independents and she must win some disaffected or dissatisfied Republicans. There are too many voters in the state who always vote Republican regardless of the candidate that Kobach starts out with an advantage despite how horrible he is.