Will the primary results tell us who wins in November?

[mysteryowl]

Meaning, said # of votes for a democrat verses the total that voted for the republican.

Example:
Democrat had x4 candidates and the total # of votes = 300,000
Republican had x2 candidates and the total # of votes = 150,000

Can we expect that the dem will win in November?

Thanks.

[marylandblue]

1. It can be a good sign, but in competitive districts, mostly no

Too many other variables. Primary turnout may reflect higher interest in a particular race on one side. Primaries tend to attract the base, but general elections bring in a lot of other people who may vote differently.

[mysteryowl]

3. Okay, thanks for the response.

Darn. I thought it meant those races are safe and will be dems in November.

[triron]

2. Not if the Russians have anything to say about it.

[mysteryowl]

4. Or, republicans

[triron]

5. They will lose without Russian help.

[dchill]

6. Which is why they're not going to stop it.

Traitors.

[Ccarmona]

7. Two Words:

Turn out!

[PoliticAverse]

8. No, because if there are 2 candidates and one winning is a forgone conclusion...

turnout tends to be light. If there are 4 candidates and a spirited race turnout tends to be heavy.

[Ccarmona]

9. You're Assuming There's There's Just One Race on the Ballot

In our area, we have multiple elections: Congress, State House & Senate as well as for State Executive Branch elections In addition, there are many Country positions up for election

[mysteryowl]

10. Yes, there are multiple offices on the ballots.

The dems are pumped up and turned out to vote in the primaries, with a low turn out for republicans. I think that is a good sign projecting for the November election.

[Garrett78]

12. But if the big ticket race is competitive on 1 side and not the other, it'll impact overall turnout.

If, for instance, if the gubernatorial race isn't competitive for the Dems but is for the Republicans, down ballot races for Dems could potentially see lower turnout.

[mysteryowl]

14. Okay. Very interesting.

So, no assumptions can be made.

[PoliticAverse]

15. Right. Certainly it portends better for your side to have the higher turnout in the primary...

but it's always who actually shows up in the general election that matters and that may be different.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

11. Not necessarily.

There could be lots of reasons why fewer Republicans turned out.

In the 2008 primary caucuses in Kansas, 36,723 Democrats participated.
19,133 showed up for the Republican caucuses.

When it came to November, 699,655 voted for McCain, 514,765 for Obama. Even putting aside the fact that both parties did caucuses, not primaries, there was clearly an enormous amount of enthusiasm among Democrats compared to Republicans. But in the end, it didn't matter. The Republican carried the state.

I know it's just one state, and a good example of anecdotal evidence which demonstrates nothing beyond that anecdote, but it is illustrative of how you can't judge very much from the primary results.

Because overall so few people vote in a primary, or attend a caucus, you need to be careful about making inferences from the primary to the general election.

[mysteryowl]

13. Thank you so much for your extensive reply.

It is disappointing, but I can see how the whole vote can turn on its end. Wow.

So, no rest for the dems. Sleep a few hours tonight and wake up hitting the ground running.

[PoliticAverse]

16. Thanks for posting an example using actual numbers. n/t