Pardoning Manafort Wouldn't Work

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2018/8/14/163215/745

Pardoning Manafort Wouldn’t Work
by BooMan
Tue Aug 14th, 2018 at 04:32:15 PM EST


Paul Waldman asks a straightforward question:

From the beginning, there has been a question hanging over Manafort’s case: Why won’t he flip? After all, other Trump aides have when faced with possible jail time, and Manafort is facing more than anyone. There’s a real possibility he’ll never see another day as a free man. One popular explanation is that he’s afraid that if he tells everything he knows, some people in Russia would become displeased enough to kill him.

So Manafort may have decided that it’s better to take his chances with a jury than to find a strange substance smeared on his door handle one day.

If I were in Paul Manafort’s shoes, I’d have a reasonable amount of confidence that the government could successfully place me (and my wife) in a witness protection program, but I’d have no confidence that this would protect my extended family. Are his adult daughters and their families going to also disappear off the grid? How about other family members, mistresses, or other people I care about? The truth is, as long as a nation state that is indistinguishable from a violent organized crime family is bent on punishing me, I’m not going to feel like the people I care about are safe.

This may be the real reason Manafort won’t talk. He still owes Oleg Derispaska somewhere around twenty million dollars and he has no prospect of repaying that debt in cash. All he can do is keep his mouth shut and hope that’s enough to get some forgiveness on the debt.

Waldman thinks Trump will ultimately pardon Manafort, but only after the second trial which will cover his dealings with Ukrainians and Russians. The problem with this prediction is that Manafort needs charges hanging over him in order to invoke his right against self-incrimination. If he’s pardoned for most of what he could conceivably be charged with, he could be compelled to tell the special counsel what he knows or face fresh charges of contempt and obstruction of justice. Is he really going to count on Mueller to give up or Trump to counter every new charge with a fresh pardon?

Maybe things really will get this weird and broken, but I think the reason Manafort hasn’t already been preemptively pardoned is that it would not solve Trump’s problems and probably would exacerbate them. Even for congressional Republicans, there’s a limit to how nakedly Trump can obstruct the investigation and get away with it. He has not fired Jeff Sessions or Rod Rosenstein, for example, and he’d run into similar problems if he started pardoning Manafort for refusing to cooperate with investigators when he faces no prospect of self-incrimination.

Add to this that Manafort can still face state charges, particularly in New York State, and I don’t see the pardon card as much of an option for Trump. If he’s desperate enough, maybe he uses it and maybe Manafort can avoid spending his life in prison. But it would not solve Trump’s problems or make all Manafort’s problems go away.

[dsc]

1. NY state may not be able to charge him

they have a strong double jeopardy law there which covers being charged federally.

[dawg day]

4. What about Virginia?

He has been living there. When you conduct financial crimes, you probably do it wherever your laptop is.

[dsc]

7. I would think VA could

NY law seems to be close to unique in this regard.

[spooky3]

8. Isn't there also a trial scheduled in DC? Nt

[dawg day]

13. Well, he probably didn't pay NY state taxes

That is a different crime. And it's likely NY would prosecute tax evasion on the level Manafort's accused of. It would be millions, probably.

Tax evasion. Shoot! They shoulda asked Al Capone. interesting that Trump bleeted about how no one's been treated as bad as Manafort since Al Capone, convicted of tax evasion. (I guess he forgot about the Rosenbergs... executed.)

[dawg day]

2. He might well prefer to spend his declining years in a federal prison...

rather than Attica State Prison.

[SunSeeker]

18. Good point. Kinda hope he rots in Attica.

But I'd prefer he flip and Trump rots in Attica.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

3. I Still Don't See Him Taking The Fall

A guy who wore a $15K watch, spent $1M on suits, and bought a $15K Karaoke setup, is not going to spend his twilight years in jail, wearing a cotton jumpsuit.

He is expecting a pardon, and it is not some guess on his part. He'll take his chances with any state charges, If they happen.

[dawg day]

9. What's in it for Trump?

He's probably better off with Manafort completely discredited and in prison.

He's probably been told that Manafort will have to testify if he's pardoned.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

10. Someone Mentioned In Another Thread

If his sentence is commuted, the conviction would still stand, which is different than a pardon, so he would not have to testify.

[dalton99a]

14. +1. A very strong possibility

[marylandblue]

11. Good point - he may have offered Manafort a pardon and not follow through

That's the best of all worlds for Trump. A discredited witness who can't testify without putting himself in further jeopardy.

[ProudLib72]

5. If you want to see an angry mob take to the streets in the millions

Then go ahead and pardon the fucker, Mr Rump!

Honestly, I think this would be second only to firing Mueller in generating more animosity than he can handle.

[revmclaren]

6. There was a discussion today

I think it was on MSNBC, that he could still be charged with evading paying State income taxes. Other charges may just be waiting in the wings for a number of State AGs to bring against him that in theory could mean more time served than the Federal charges.

Anyway you look at it...he's boned!



Only! 2018 - 2020.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

12. Russians do not play nice when money is owed them....

They murder the family before they murder you. They spare No one.

Paul Mabafort made his bed with the Russians. Time to pay the piper. I do not feel sorry for him.

[RockRaven]

15. I wonder if Trump's ignorance and incompetence isn't also acting as a gate-keeper of sorts

We know Trump is impulsive, and we know he gets obsessed with things, and we know he doesn't care about rules and norms, and we know he doesn't follow advice when behaving impulsively... so why hasn't he pardoned Manafort during one of his many fits of pique?

Maybe because he doesn't know how. Trump himself literally doesn't know what words to write down on a piece of paper to pardon Manafort. And neither do his closest toadies/sycophants. They need someone with a modicum of expertise.

So Trump needs one of his learned peons to assist, like the White House Counsel, or similar. But when Trump tells them he wants to pardon Manafort they have to tell him all the reasons it is a bad idea: it won't hold up, it'll get you impeached, it will get YOU charged with crimes, it will make it so he can be forced to testify against you, etc, etc.

I'm not saying Trump's "don't pardon Manafort" staffers are patriots, not at all. But they may be talking him out of it, because that's what's good for him. And maybe the opportunity to distract him only arises b/c he's an incapable bumblef*ck.

[C Moon]

16. Rich and connected. He'll never do time.

[Honeycombe8]

17. Depends on what he promised Manafort.

Trump is a con man, but if he promised a pardon & renegs, then anyone else he tries to convince to keep quiet will know Trump won't follow through. So if Trump promised, he has to complete the deal and pardon him.

BUT...the trial that just concluded didn't involve Trump. So there's no reason for Trump to promise a pardon for that, is there?

[calimary]

19. Wow.

Whole new way to look at it. If trump pardons Manafort, then Manafort can be compelled to testify and can’t take the 5th.

Who would Manafort fear more? I suspect that, if you take into account all the years that Manafort has been hobnobbing with Russians and Ukrainians and oligarchs with big bucks and bigtime connections to Putin and all these seedy people in pretty damn dubious environs, you think he ISN’T aware - VERY aware - of what can happen when you wander off the reservation?

The comment about the “strange substance smeared in his door handle one day” just blared at me as though from a loud offkey trumpet blown straight into my face.