RCP poll averages: Obama/Romney = Obama/McCain

[ProSense]

RCP poll averages: Obama/Romney = Obama/McCain

by Rolandz

Real Clear Politics has an interesting page that compares the state of the presidential race in national polls from 2008 with those of 2012 on a daily basis. These numbers represent the averages of all polls on that particular date.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

And what do we find?

That the standing between Obama and Romney today is almost exactly the same as the standing between Obama and McCain in mid-August of that year.

On August 9, 2008, the numbers were Obama 46.9, McCain 43.3.

On August 9, 2012, the numbers are Obama 47.8, Romney 43.9.

In fact, Obama's lead against Romney is slightly larger than his lead over McCain, 3.9% vs. 3.6%.

And this is true for virtually all of July as well.

Conclusion? The dissatisfaction with the economy does not seem to be translating into an abandonment of the incumbent by the voters.

A few caveats: the chart doesn't account for voter enthusiasm, which might work against Obama, but it does include Rasmussen polls in the averages, which may mean Obama's numbers are actually marginally higher than those listed here.

Take it for what it's worth. I realize it's still early and that the state-by-state race is what really counts. But I think that this is a good indication that Obama is in a pretty decent position going into November. It certainly beats having it be the other way around.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/09/1118291/-RCP-poll-averages-Obama-Romney-Obama-McCain

Interesting. The RCP comparisons go back to February 8.

[MineralMan]

1. Nice find.

Thanks.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

2. Clinton beat a corpse (Dole). Obama will easily beat a mannequin attired in magic undies.

[Happyhippychick]

3. Interesting they don't mention that it doesn't take into account voter "enthusiasm" for Romney.

They mention Obama but not him. I don't see anyone saying that they are going to crawl over broken glass to vote for Lurch.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. "voter enthusiasm, which might work against Obama"

??? The very heart of his 2008 vote came from women and minorities and since GOP has been anti- all of those groups, their enthusiasm has grown even larger for Obama - most notably the Hispanic vote. So I don't think that's a problem. The problem might be actual ability to vote based on all the voter suppression laws in place.

[RedStateLiberal]

5. Hmmm. It was numbers like that in '08...

...that made McCain go with a "game changer" for his VP pick.

I wonder if Romney will learn from that mistake or also make an outside-of-the-box pick for VP? I'm guessing he won't and will pick someone bland but desperate times call for desperate actions.