Trump is more established at this point. We may be focusing on all the lies and outrageous stuff but some people were worried he'd take us to war or ruin the economy/stock market, or whatever. Those fears steadily fade. That's why the approval rating logically ticks upward, even if nothing else changes. I warned about that last fall. I specialize in situational variables. Trump can be every bit the lowlife but his approval rating will move upward as long as nothing super significant intervenes to change that.
I would be thrilled at a dip back to 37 or 38 prior to the midterm. This tape could do that but I was very discouraged tonight to hear Omarosa describe it as an audio tape and not a video with audio. I would estimate audio alone is only half as powerful. With the bus tape we saw the context as Trump said everything, and there was no way he could argue it was doctored, although naturally he attempted that in pathetic fashion after being elected.
The timing has to be perfect. Ten to 14 days out appears to be ideal, but for public attention span and also to impact early voting.
I still have my doubts this tape is in the hands of someone who will release it to harm Trump. Otherwise I have no idea why it was kept away in 2016. We heard rumors about it then, along with fines and legal jeopardy if released by an NBC employee or former NBC employee.
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