Jobless claims show unexpected improvement

[ProSense]

Jobless claims show unexpected improvement

By Steve Benen

Don't look now, but initial unemployment claims are actually starting to offer reason for cautious optimism. The new report from the Department of Labor is not only encouraging, it's unexpectedly so.

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Aug. 4 fell 6,000 to 361,000. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to rise 5,000 to 370,000.

To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.

In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've only managed to dip below the 370,000 threshold five times in the last 18 weeks, but here's the good news: we've been below 370,000 in four of the last five weeks.

And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.



http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/08/09/13198739-jobless-claims-show-unexpected-improvement

[WI_DEM]

1. even though people looked at unemployment going up a notch we did produce

165,000 jobs last month--the best jobs report in several months. I'm hoping in the months before the election that we can continue to see more improvement in the job market which would take the teeth out of Rmoney's only real issue.

[demwing]

3. If the unemployment rate dips beneath 8

even a bit to 7.8, (get your) Mittens (off) RMoney will have no campaign - and the ugly will start in earnest.

[coalition_unwilling]

2. Excellent news but should be seasoned with a dose of caution, given

the fact that the 'Take This Job and Shove It' Index shows employees increasingly reluctant to quit voluntarily (an indicator that they perceive - whether rightly or wrongly - a tightening job market). Sorry, I don't have a link for this index, but it actually exists and is one that labor economists also consider.