Trump did play a big role in the result in Ohio -- but not the one he wants you to think

[Pluvious]

Some technical analysis regarding Tuesday night’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.

Maybe, just maybe it's all in his head.

One thing's for damn certain...

Come November, we better fucking see the greatest turnout of Democratic voters in modern history, or it's game over, kids.

It took President Trump very little time to assume credit for Republican Troy Balderson’s apparent victory in Tuesday night’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.

“When I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good,” Trump wrote on Twitter a bit after all the precincts were counted. “After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better. Now Troy wins a great victory during a very tough time of the year for voting.”

Most of that is obviously untrue. The early vote was always expected to favor Democrat Danny O’Connor by a wide margin; he won it by about 27 points despite ending the night down a point in the overall vote. No turn for the better in that regard, given that Trump claims the margin was 28 points when he arrived. (It’s not clear how the votes actually broke down. Ohio only offered data on the party composition of the voters returning ballots.)

...

There is one important point obscured in the debate over the narrow result. That it was close at all was a function of the leftward shift of the country seen in other special election races since 2016. That shift is broadly and fairly attributed to Trump’s unpopularity.

( remember, if your free reads quota is up, just open a private/incognito browser window )

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/politics/wp/2018/08/08/trump-did-play-a-big-role-in-the-result-in-ohio-but-not-the-one-he-wants-you-to-think/

[dalton99a]

1. The traitor should get out and campaign 7 days a week like he said

even 8 days a week

[dchill]

2. I encourage his efforts.

I don't like paying the tab, however.