**The AP has not called OH 12 and Ohio Sec of State says 8,400 ballots remain to be counted*!

[NewsCenter28]

BREAKING NEWS: Balderson hold lead in Ohio special with thousands of ballots left to count

Republican Troy Balderson holds a slim lead in Ohio's special House election and claimed victory Tuesday night, but the Associated Press has not yet called the race, with thousands of absentee and provisional ballots outstanding.

Balderson had 50.2 percent of the vote to Democrat Danny O'Connor's 49.3 percent with 100 percent of precincts supporting.

O'Connor did not concede the race, and over 8,400 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted, according to the Ohio secretary of state's office.

See live results here.

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[greyl]

1. K & R nt

[roamer65]

2. MSNBC: 68 seats are more competitive than this district.

David Jolly is writing the obituary tonite on the Repuke house majority.

[DonaldsRump]

3. Why is everyone giving up?

First of all, kudos to Danny O'Connor for a GREAT showing in a ruby red district.

Second, Dem Party, send every lawyer and observer you can to count every vote, absentee, provisional, early, or election day. Fight for everything, and if you need volunteers, I am sure there are many people here who will come.

Danny, we are VERY proud of you!

[Legends303]

4. I thought I read somewhere it was only about 3500 provisional ballots left

if true that is really encouraging.

[Garrett78]

7. The 8400 number includes absentee ballots, and not just provisional.

In all likelihood, Balderson will come out on top. This is what Nate Silver posted earlier:

NATE SILVER11:04 PM
"So, O’Connor needs to win the absentee/provisional ballots by 21 percentage points to win the state if all of those ballots are counted, which they presumably won’t be. So let’s round up a bit and say he’d have to win them by 25 points. Provisionals tend to be very Democratic leaning, and so it wouldn’t be crazy to think he could get there if all of the uncounted votes were provisionals. However, the majority of them are actually absentees, and those won’t necessarily be Democratic. So it’s something of a long shot, but there are enough votes there that I wouldn’t want to “call” the race, unless I knew more about the nature of who tends to vote absentee in the district."

In response to this:

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1027025172656738307&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2Faugust-7-election-results%2F

[OhioBlue]

9. It could be that there are 3500 provisionals - some of which may be found to not be

eligible... so not all of those will be counted. For example, if you failed to provide ID, you need to show up at the BOE within 7 days with proper ID for your ballot to count.

There could also be absentee ballots that have been pulled and not returned to the BOE in time for the early count that add to the 3500 provisional ballots to equal 8400. Some absentee may be in process, postmarked in time but not received by the BOE before counting today. Some may have pulled an absentee and then gone to the polling place today and had to vote provisional.

In summary, both things can be true. There can be 3500 provisional ballots and a combination of provisional and unaccounted absentee ballots that equal 8400, but there are not actually 8400 votes outstanding. I shouldn't say that as an absolute, but the chances that all unaccounted absentee ballots were filled out and postmarked in time AND all provisional ballots will be found 1.)eligible and 2.) not a duplication of a pulled absentee are almost zero.

[bettyellen]

11. Kora Kim kept using that number from 40% of the precincts because the remainer they had no count at

all. It was confusing because he said it would eventually more than double the 3.5k.

[OhioBlue]

5. Hopefully, it breaks our way and if some of the provisionals were due to voter purges

hopefully, they get their registration updated before Nov.

[rogue emissary]

6. I've seen two numbers for outstanding ballots. AP 8,400 and NBC saying more than 3,400.

From CNBC

Republicans declared victory Tuesday night with all precincts on the outskirts of Columbus and the surrounding areas in the district reporting. But, with fewer than 1,800 votes separating the candidates and more than 3,400 provisional ballots still to be counted, NBC has not yet called the race. A margin of 0.5 percent or less triggers a mandatory recount in Ohio.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/08/ohio-12-special-election-results.html

[Garrett78]

8. Absentee + Provisional equals 8400

[rogue emissary]

10. Makes sense and thanks for the clarification.

[dweller]

12. 3400 and 8400

are easily misread,

3 or 8 at a glimpse ...

[rogue emissary]

13. Garrett78 is right. One is only counting absentee, and the other is counting absentee + provisional.

[blue-wave]

14. Great News!!!

I'll put money on it that we win once every vote is counted.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

15. MSNBC says if it gets to be a 0.5% difference between candidates it triggers a recount.

Right now it's at 0.9%

O'Connor's right not to concede. Make them to count every vote!

[irisblue]

16. More info from SOS(who is running as Rep candidate for Lt Gov)

WOSU News (@wosunews) Tweeted:
BREAKING: @OhioSOSHusted says 3,435 provisional ballots were cast, and there still 5,048 outstanding absentee ballots.

Balderson currently leads by just t 1,700 votes. https://t.co/CuLGZdfW5p

Link to tweet