New analysis shows GOP should be terrified of midterms -- & they could get wiped out worse than 2006

[DonViejo]

New analysis shows the GOP should be terrified of midterms — and they could get wiped out worse than in 2006

BRAD REED
03 AUG 2018 AT 09:59 ET

A new analysis from the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter shows that the Republican Party should be deeply worried about their prospects in the 2018 midterm elections — and she warns they could face an even bigger wipeout than in 2006.

The basis of Walter’s dire forecast for the GOP is her analysis of past Cook ratings for past “wave” midterm elections in 2006 and 2010, in which the organization had listed fewer seats as “highly vulnerable” in August before adding several more such seats to the “highly vulnerable” category by November.

“For example, between July 2006 and November 2006, we moved 24-GOP held seats from Lean/Likely Republican to Toss-Up (or worse),” she writes. “Between August and November of 2010, we moved 35 Democratic-held seats from Lean/Likely Democratic to Toss-Up (or worse).”

Why is this so potentially ominous for the GOP? Because in both 2006 and 2010, the party that controlled Congress wound up losing significantly more seats than the August “highly vulnerable” ratings would suggest.

What’s more, Walter says that “Republicans already have more seats in the highly vulnerable category than they had at this point in 2006 or than Democrats had in August of 2010.”

In the end, Walter concludes that the GOP had better pray something big changes between now and November, or else they face the very real prospect of an electoral wipeout.

“If 2018 follows a similar pattern to 2006 and 2010 — where less vulnerable seats move into more vulnerable territory in the fall — the GOP is almost certain to lose their majority,” she writes.

Read the whole analysis here.

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https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/new-analysis-shows-gop-terrified-midterms-get-wiped-worse-2006/

[JaneQPublic]

1. Only if Dems vote.

Complacency is our worst enemy.

[Wounded Bear]

2. Hear, hear!

[berksdem]

3. +1

the fact is we need to GOTV in astonishing numbers. Otherwise, we are royally F*&*ED

[gopiscrap]

6. plus 2

[lagomorph777]

8. +3

[dalton99a]

7. Absolutely. GOTV!

[LakeArenal]

11. Lovely, thanks!!!!

[RhodeIslandOne]

9. And Vlad stays out of the booth n/m

[NewJeffCT]

14. but, now we know why Republicans have allocated 0 for election security

and the state Dept has disbursed 0 of what they've been allocated.

[lapfog_1]

4. Russians to the rescue

or "The Russians are coming!"

I'm convinced that the GOP has been rigging elections for 20+ years... actually changing vote totals in electronic voting machines. In addition they have lost boxes of ballots, actively removed people from voting roles, gerrymandered the fuck out of republican controlled states, reduced voting time, made voting more difficult in Democratic districts by reducing polling places and voting machines.

All of this has changed around 5% to 10% of the vote total... meaning Democrats have to outperform to win by 5 to 10 percent.

Then came the Russians to "hack the minds" of low information voters by spreading propaganda.

My guess is that in 2018 Democrats will have to outperform by MORE than 10% to win. Not 10 percent of the published vote totals, but by 10 percent of willing voters and those who have been de-programmed from Russian spread propaganda.

So... while I applaud the analysis that shows a GOP wipe-out... I remain worried that with all of the cheating and gerrymandering and Russian help... we will have a horse race to take the house... and may actually lose a seat or two in the Senate.

[duforsure]

5. Wait until they're exposed individually in Congress for taking putins money,

It will create the biggest swing in control of Congress ever in our history, and many will be charged. If I was one of them I'd be scared to death , and in panic mode, then turn and talk to Mueller.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Only if "Dems" stop attacking Dems.

You probably know who I mean.

[StevieM]

12. The dfifference between 2006 and 2018 is gerrymandering.

If not for the gerrymander we would completely destroy the GOP in this election.

[NewJeffCT]

15. Back when he was a Republican still

Joe Scarborough admitted that gerrymandering was the only reason Republicans held onto Congress in 2012 when Obama was re-elected. Dems needed another 17 seats to get the majority at the time, but extreme gerrymanders in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and elsewhere stopped any sort of big pickup

[LiberalLovinLug]

13. Which makes me wonder why they're NOT terrified

Their hubris seems to know no bounds. And not just Trump. McConnell still has that shit-eating turtle grin. It's like they don't need Trump but they'll milk his deranged distractions as long as they can while he survives in order to steal as much as they can but in the end the GOP is not concerned about votes. They know they already have it in the bag.