voter study identifies 5 types of Trump voters and why they stick with him no matter what

[Demovictory9]

[“Trump has offended immense numbers of people,” says Emily Ekins, director of polling at the libertarian Cato Institute, who has published a detailed analysis of Trump voters. “But most people aren’t paying as close attention as the people in New York and D.C. whose job is to follow these issues. And the economy is hugely important to understanding voter choice.”

There’s good and bad news for Trump in the stability of his support. He does seem to have a core set of voters who will back him even if he shoots somebody on Fifth Avenue. That may provide a floor of 30% or so to his approval rating, meaning he wouldn’t slip below that under any circumstance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-supporters-never-waver-185256151.html


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In a study for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a privately funded research outfit, Ekins identified five types of Trump voters and assessed how important each group was to Trump’s victory. The breakdown helps explain why Trump’s supporters stick with him, no matter how controversial he is. It also reveals Trump’s weaknesses, which are considerable. Here’s an overview:


Staunch conservatives and American preservationists are Trump’s true base, representing about half of those who voted for him. They tend to be America-first nativists who are socially conservative and opposed to immigration, and may feel culturally threatened. Trump’s hard-line immigration policy is meant for them, and they’ll probably stick with him no matter what.

The disengaged, a small portion of Trump voters, aren’t very knowledgeable about politics, but they do tend to feel powerless and left behind in the modern economy. Trump’s vilification of immigrants and Muslims may appeal to them and earn their loyalty.

Free marketeers and anti-elites are more moderate. They tend to be traditional Republicans who may have voted for Trump simply out of party loyalty. They support free trade and a light government touch on the economy, which is at odds with Trump’s interventionist trade policy. Some of these people already regret voting for Trump, and he could lose more if his protectionist trade policy backfires or the economy weakens. Since these two groups represent about 45% of Trump voters, his approval rating could fall into the mid or low 30s if the economy begins to struggle, which would weaken Trump’s political power and his leverage over fellow Republicans in Congress. This is his biggest vulnerability.

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“He has underperformed, given the economic fundamentals,” Ekins says. “It shows what being offensive can do to a candidate.” It may show even more if those fundamentals weaken.

[wonkwest]

1. His trade policies are what will end him

I know here, on the political internet, we're all watching things like Mueller and Cohen.

But my sense is that trade will be his undoing. Once the effects of his madness there kick in, he will start bleeding support.

Surprised this came out of the Cato Institute.

[smirkymonkey]

2. K&R