Will the blue wave obliterate the Long Island Nine?

[RandySF]

Democrats in New York are hoping to capitalize on a predicted national “blue wave” to flip Republican state Senate seats and regain control of the chamber. A big part of that battle is playing out on Long Island, where Cuomo has been asserting his influence to ensure strong candidates are in position to take advantage of the political momentum driven by opposition to Donald Trump’s presidency.

“I have never seen a Democratic governor work as aggressively to recruit Democratic candidates to the Senate,” said Patrick Halpin, the former Democratic assemblyman and Suffolk County executive, now managing director at lobbying firm Mercury.

Long Island has nine seats in the state Senate, often unimaginatively referred to as the “Long Island Nine.” They constitute a powerful voting bloc in the chamber, usually voting together on local issues that are important on Long Island, such as the environment, property taxes and school aid. For the past seven years, a Long Island state senator has led the chamber as majority leader, beginning with Dean Skelos in 2011 and now with John Flanagan since 2015.

The nine have also historically been Republican.



https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/blue-wave-long-island-nine.html

[lapucelle]

1. We flipped Nassau County blue last November and we're really optimistic about our chances. N/T

[phylny]

6. I didn't know that!

My dad lives in West Hempstead. I grew up there, same house. He was such a compassionate, wonderful guy, and still is in many ways, but Fox and One America News have turned him into a staunch Trumper and Republican. I'm glad to hear Nassau has shifted.

[lapucelle]

8. We have a Democratic town supervisor in Hempstead

for the first time in over 100 years. (FYI for anyone who doesn't know LI: There are twice as many people who live in the town of Hempstead as who live in the state of New Hampshire, so it's no small job.)

We had an interesting Democratic primary for county executive last September. The sitting Republican comptroller ran as a Democrat, while the Republican ran unopposed. I'm beginning to agree that we need stonger ballot access rules.

I work in West Hempstead!

[msongs]

2. the same cuomo who asserted his influence to keep repubs in charge in one chamber? maybe

he has seen the anti-trump/republicans light now

[lapucelle]

4. No, the Cuomo who spearheaded the effort for a $15 minimum wage and free in-state college,

set a workable timetable, and is actually accomplishing the goal.

[Jim Lane]

5. msongs is correct about Cuomo's record of abetting the turncoats of the IDC.

There's quite a bit of progressive legislation that could have been enacted during the course of the last several years, but wasn't. The reason it wasn't was that Andrew Cuomo found it politically convenient to let the Republicans control the State Senate. That way, no bill would reach his desk that would create a political problem for him, because either signing it or vetoing it would have alienated someone whose support he wanted.

This year, for the first time, he's making an effort to flip the State Senate. Has he had a change of heart? Not exactly. He sees the blue wave building and he wants to polish his credentials as a Democrat for a run at the presidency. He's belatedly trying to put himself at the head of a parade that's going on with or without him.

[Danmel]

7. Cuomo is also term limited.

The seats Dems are most likely to pick up are the 3rd Senate District, where Monica Martinez s running against Dean Murray, who currently is in the assembly minority and the 4th Senate District, where Lou D'Amaro is challenging incumbent Phil Boyle, who was weakened in an aborted race for Suffolk County Sheriff. He lost a primary to a Republican who subsequently lost a very tight race to Democrat Errol Toulon, the first African American county wide office holder.

The 5th district is also ripe for the picking. The incumbent Carl Marcellino, has been in Albany for so long, he has fossilized. He does nothing. The Democratic candidate, Jim Gaughran, has a real shot at this.

Kennedy's retirement adds to the urgency. NY had never codified the protections in Roe v Wade. If it is overturned, abortion will become illegal in New York without legislative action. The Democratic majority Assembly has passed a reproductive Rights bill repeatedly but it has always died in the Senate. So we have the urgency of now working in our favor.

I worked for the county Legislature for 12 years and now work for the assembly. One seat in the Senate and everything changes.
It creates an interesting dilemma for Democrats in more conservative districts. They have been able to vote for very progressive bills, knowing they would never pass the Senate. If the Senate flips, not so much.
And Dems in state government on Long Island have to be careful about being lumped in with the city Dems, whose interests, particularly in respect to school funding and transportation are often at odds with the needs of suburban districts, even the many that are not affluent at all.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed and walking door to door for our candidates getting petitions signed and then it's into the battle. During election season, I often take more than 300,000 steps a month talking to voters. I make phone calls, I donate what I can.
We all need to step it up. Everything we care about is at stake, in the Empire State and across the country.

EXCELSIOR! EVER UPWARD!

[lapucelle]

10. Thank you for your insights and your hard work!

[Jim Lane]

11. No, Cuomo is not term limited.

He's currently seeking the Democratic nomination to run for his third term. If he wins the primary and then the election for his third term, he'll thereafter be eligible for a fourth term, a fifth term, etc. New York doesn't have term limits for Governor.

[lapucelle]

9. Local politics are always complex.

Last edited Sat Jun 30, 2018, 11:23 AM - Edit history (1)

A systematically rising minimum wage, free college for those who make under $125,000 a year, stronger gun laws to close loopholes that enabled domestic abusers to own some firearms...slow and steady wins the race.

Those who stayed home or went third party in the GE 2016 insisting that the apocryphal perfect always be the enemy of the actual good helped bring us Trump. Cuomo is far from perfect, but he's evolving and backing it up with deeds and enacted legislation.

[Jim Lane]

12. The New York State Senate isn't especially complex -- just unusual.

Several Senators who were elected as Democrats then broke away from the Democratic Party. They called themselves the "Independent Democratic Conference" but caucused with the Republicans, giving the GOP control of the chamber.

Cuomo has been complicit in all this, as detailed in a couple of Politico articles: "Cuomo meets with Senate Dems, stays quiet amid rising noise" and "Cuomo stands by as Senate goes Republican". The latter article quoted Cuomo's memorable defense of his abandonment of the Democratic Party: “To become hyper-political, I think, violates your oath of office."

Only recently, when he sees a blue wave coming, has Cuomo started tacking to the left.

[Danmel]

13. Ooops. I was thinking of County Executive

The State Senate is more complicated because Simcha Felder, who is technically a Democrat, caucuses with the Republicans and because Republican Tom Croce, from the 3rd SD, decided mid-term to re-enlist in the Navy, leading to a nominal 31-31 tie because of the aforementioned Simcha Felder.

There wasn't even a "Big Ugly" hodgepodge kitchen sink of cesspool compromise this year and the Assembly and Senate closed up shop as scheduled. Now it's back to the districts for the elections.
Cuomo has been content with all of this dysfunction but he's got Cynthia Nixon's hot breath on the back of his neck now.

[Suburban Warrior]

3. Dean Skelos is

Going to jail, along with his son.