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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIs Kennedy's retirement karma?
5-4 right-leaning decisions go to 6-3 right-leaning decisions with trump's sure-to-be ultra-conservative pick to replace Kennedy.
If RGB retires or passes the decisions become 7-2 right-leaning judgments.
Not any difference for us.
Kennedy, the alleged swing vote, showed he's just another repug, partisan hack by serving up this opportunity for trump, the imposter, to codify right wing dogma for a generation. and of course undo historic and just SCOTUS decisions like Roe v Wade, civil rights decisions, LGBTQ decisions and maybe even Brown v Board of Ed.
And it shows to me that the way SCOTUS justices are picked is flawed. The political leanings of the presiding president decides who serves on the court thus rendering justice anything but blind.
Parties were anathema to many of the founding fathers but they are now a reality. I know it's considered heresy to even suggest a change in the Constitution but this should be changed, along with ditching the effin Electoral College.
Or course none of that will happen. We are truly fucked. What the hell is going on? Everything is falling into place for this orange debacle to move us closer and closer to fascism.
Is karma punishing the country for the original sins of enslavement of Africans and the genocide of Native Americans, with those of us on the left being just collateral damage?
wasupaloopa
(4,516 posts)marl down table.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)wasupaloopa
(4,516 posts)you have given me advice. I take notice in a good way.
I have a bad reaction to the mae colpa folks when it comes to all the things I am guilty of that my ancesters did.
brush
(53,876 posts)or more is not something to be alarmed about?
wasupaloopa
(4,516 posts)prove it.
brush
(53,876 posts)the enslavement of Africans. The whole litany of wars, coups, Monroe Doctrine/Manifest Destiny, assassinations, occupations and takeovers (we've been engaged in one of more of those things for well over a century and still are), eventually catches up with us and I'm contending that how everything has broken right for the orange pustule to steal the electionfrom Putin and his bots, Interstate Crosscheck vote suppression, Cambridge Analytica using Facebook, Assange, the 70-some thousand votes in 3 states being just enough to swing the election, Comeyall of that happened to install trump who is now maneuvering his way to more and more fascist policiesthat amount of injustice does not go unpunished, even if it takes generations. And this generation and trump moving us more and more to the extreme right regardless of who it hurts (see Muslim ban being okayed by SCOTUS and the heinous family separations at the border-kids in chain-link pens), there will be a reckoning.
Just my opinion. Empires fail and it starts at the top. trump is payback.
wasupaloopa
(4,516 posts)because of what we are doing today not what our ancestors did.
brush
(53,876 posts)perpetrated by descendants of the same strain as before (see not just trump but also McConnell and Sessions and their ilk).
It hasn't stopped. If we don't win the House at lease and go full bore on investigative hearings on trump and the repugs, it could be over.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,714 posts)The sins of the parents shouldn't be visited on the children.
dameatball
(7,400 posts)Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,505 posts)we'd be even more fucked.
Exotica
(1,461 posts)off the RW side of the court. It will thus soon be 5-4 hard right wing. If Trump is re-elected it will surely be 7-2 hard RW, over even 8-1 if Sotomayor dies or resigns due to her advancing diabetes, unless we take back the Senate. Hell, if Breyer or RBG don't make it to end of 2020 we could see 6-3 or 7-2 even if Trump is defeated in 2020.
GOTV 2018
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,505 posts)brush
(53,876 posts)Last edited Thu Jun 28, 2018, 01:22 PM - Edit history (1)
Whoever it is will be ultra-conservative so there will no longer be any occasional left-leaning decisions.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,505 posts)EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)White folks would have disappeared a long time ago.
brush
(53,876 posts)slavery and Native American genocide.
And fascism always falls (see Hitler's Germany, Mussolini's Italy, and Franco's Spain).
LeftInTX
(25,563 posts)What is going on is opposite of karma........
cynatnite
(31,011 posts)according to the RW taliban.
Karma is bullshit.
brush
(53,876 posts)cynatnite
(31,011 posts)You're saying what's happening is karma because of past evils. I'm saying it's pure bullshit.
brush
(53,876 posts)LeftInTX
(25,563 posts)There are other dictatorships too: Look at the Kim regime in North Korea. Look at Assad in Syria. Look at Erdogan in Turkey. Gaddaffi was around for a long time too. Living under Putin doesn't sound like much fun.
Heck I don't even know what is going on with some countries in sub-saharan Africa, but it often doesn't sound very good.
Just because fascism existed in Europe, doesn't mean we get to discount dictatorships around the world.
brush
(53,876 posts)over time.
LeftInTX
(25,563 posts)Dictatorships are on the rise. Democracy is fragile.
Evil is always present, it is a law of nature.
I wish Karma was true, but it isn't.
Defeating fascism in Europe required a World War.
Lots of fascist stuff is still going on and has been for 70 years. It just isn't happening in Europe.
Will it go away in my life? I'm 62.
brush
(53,876 posts)result in reaction against.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)That's marriage equality and prohibition of capital punishment against minors.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Kennedy was the fifth vote on almost every 5-4 decision. A conservative replacement means they remain 5-4 decisions. The difference is there are fewer 5-4 decisions on the liberal side.
brush
(53,876 posts)whoever it is will be young, ultra-conservative and there will no longer be occasional left-leaning 5-4 decisions. They'll always be 5-4 right wing decisions.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)brush
(53,876 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,543 posts)I am going to smack myself for this but you might have Roberts do some "swings". There is an interesting analysis in the NYT today about the court -
By ADAM LIPTAK and ALICIA PARLAPIANO JUNE 28, 2018
<...>
In recent terms, Justice Kennedy had voted with the majority in divided cases more than 92 percent of the time, a higher rate than any other member of the court. This term, his rate dropped to just over 84 percent and Chief Justice Roberts passed him, at 87 percent. Justice Gorsuch was third, at 74 percent.
<graphic>
Collectively, those three justices occupied the ideological space at the courts center, which had for years been home to Justice Kennedy by himself.
But it was Chief Justice Roberts, who assigns majority opinions when he is in the majority, who seemed to be consolidating power this term.
If Mr. Trump is successful in appointing Justice Kennedys successor, Chief Justice Roberts would almost certainly find himself at the courts ideological center.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/28/us/politics/supreme-court-2017-term-moved-right.html
Wish I could post the graphic from the NYT but the legend overlay isn't embedded in the graphic. The Washington Post basically said the same thing yesterday however and they have the same graphic as the NYT except theirs is including more years in the past -
by Christopher Ingraham June 27 at 4:26 PM
<...>
<...>
Let's focus on the right end of the chart, which brings us close to the present day. There's a thin yellow line there indicating the ideological position of Kennedy. You'll notice it perfectly tracks with the black median justice line.
Here comes the important part: In terms of ideology, the conservative justice closest to Kennedy is Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., according to the Quinn-Martin scores. President Trump is almost certainly going to nominate somebody to the right of Roberts. Trump's previous confirmed nominee, Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, for instance, is much closer to Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. than he is to Roberts on the Quinn-Martin scale.
With Kennedy gone, and (presumably) a conservative to the right of him filling the vacancy, that means that Roberts becomes the court's next median justice. As of the 2016 term, that would shift the ideological score of the median justice rightward, from Kennedy's -.362 to Roberts' +. 257, more than a half a total ideological point. To put it in simpler terms, the chief justice is now the court's swing vote. One important caveat is that scores haven't been calculated for the 2017-2018 term, which just wrapped up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/27/chief-justice-john-roberts-is-now-the-supreme-courts-swing-vote/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1761fad33f33
brush
(53,876 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,543 posts)John Roberts Will Probably Be The Supreme Courts Next Swing Justice
By Ritchie King, Oliver Roeder and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring, which means the makeup of the Supreme Court is about to shift dramatically. For the past 12 years, since Justice Sandra Day OConnor retired from the bench, Kennedy has been the courts median justice, with four justices to the left of him and four to the right. During that time, he has vexed both liberals and conservatives with sweeping, high-profile rulings on issues such as gay rights and campaign finance. And now President Trump will replace him with a judge who will almost certainly be more right-wing than Kennedy, decisively tipping the balance toward the courts conservative faction. This will likely bring an end to the delicate equilibrium weve become accustomed to over the past decade.
Trump has announced that he will choose Kennedys successor from the shortlist of 25 contenders that he made public during the campaign and updated last year. Many of the people on this list are federal appeals court judges, so we have some sense of how they might vote if they made it onto the Supreme Court. If almost any of them are appointed, Chief Justice John Roberts will be the courts new median justice. When the court hears a case that touches on the most contentious issues of American life, a conservative majority will be all but assured.
Its easy to see why Kennedys departure could lead to such a seismic shift for the court. Although Kennedy is certainly not a moderate on many issues, his willingness to vote with both wings of the court made him the courts median justice during every term since 2005. In that time, his score drifted toward the liberal bloc think of his tiebreaking votes on important issues such as abortion and gay rights while the other justices, with the notable exception of Roberts, remained more entrenched in their separate positions. Since Kennedy became the reliably median justice, the ideological range between the middle five justices has been wider than it was at any other time in modern Supreme Court history.
A Supreme Court with someone like Roberts in the ideological middle would not be unprecedented. OConnor, for example, was in the middle before Kennedy, and she often scored as more conservative than Roberts does now. The same goes for Lewis Powell, a Nixon appointee, and Byron White, a Kennedy appointee, both of whom were the median justice of their day and clocked scores to the right of Roberts score today. And back in the late 1940s and early 50s, many members of the court sat tightly bunched around an ideology score thats slightly more conservative than that of Roberts in recent years.
<...>
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-roberts-will-probably-be-the-supreme-courts-next-swing-justice/
BUT the website "above the law" begs to differ!
Just because there are four justices to your left, and four justices to your right does not make you a centrist.
By Kathryn Rubino
If youre like a lot of people, distraught over the imminent retirement of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, you may have spent the morning trawling the internet for good news something to reassure you that the country is not headed towards a right-wing hellscape. You may have even come across my colleague David Lats piece on the Supreme Court. But as much as that may comfort you in the short term, Im afraid it is nothing short of mainstream centrist porn designed to take you out of the fight before us.
Lat pins a lot of hope on Chief Justice John Roberts and his supposed centrist leanings, as evidenced by his decision in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius (the Obamacare case), where the Chief Justice cast the deciding vote that saved the law. But that downplays the way the decision was really a backdoor effort to undermine the commerce clause (which under Americas curious jurisprudence forms the foundation of many civil rights cases). And just because there are four justices to your left, and four justices to your right does not make you a centrist. When Trump nominates, and the Senate inevitably confirms, any of the FedSoc acolytes on the short list, the middle of the Court will be shifted to the right and that is dangerous for a whole shit ton of reasons, including gay rights and reproductive freedom.
In his article, Lat argues that two cornerstone civil rights cases Obergefell and Roe will be safe from an overturn. And it is certainly true, no matter who becomes the next Supreme Court justice, those cases are likely to remain good law avoiding the red flag treatment, if you will for at least 5 10 years. But to act like those rights wont be under attack when the middle of the Court moves to Robertss worldview is a short-sighted case of ostriching.
<...>
https://abovethelaw.com/2018/06/john-roberts-will-not-save-us/
treestar
(82,383 posts)not all of them are spring chickens. That's why we have to get out in every midterm, regular and special election.
Wwcd
(6,288 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)No, doesn't work at all.
brush
(53,876 posts)trump may very well be payback.