General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIncreased threat of a trade war is ramping up fears of a 'full-blown recession'
Even as growth ramps up to what could be the fastest rate since before the financial crisis, economists are worried that a trade war could tip the U.S. into a significant slowdown or even a recession.
Fears over a GDP pullback comes as President Donald Trump threatens another more severe round of tariffs aimed both at China and the European Union.
Specifically, the worry is that the duties could spark a larger global trade war that triggers inflation and kills U.S. growth just as it appears to be accelerating out of its post-crisis malaise.
"Our calculations suggest that a major trade war would lead to a significant reduction in growth," Michelle Meyer, U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note. "A decline in confidence and supply chain disruptions could amplify the trade shock, leading to an outright recession. We continue to believe that the probability of a full blown trade war is low but the risks are rising and it remains a key uncertainty to our outlook."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/increased-threat-of-a-trade-war-is-ramping-up-fears-of-a-full-blown-recession/ar-AAz1plV?li=BBnbfcN
We've had nearly ten years of growth. We're probably due for a recession. The Republicans antics will probably make it worse.
BigmanPigman
(51,638 posts)in 2008 and gets ZERO credit from the GOP. Instead they thumb their noses at the country and pass massive tax cuts for the rich. Now trade wars will end all the "growth" for the mega-rich and the deplorables who voted for the great deal maker will have their personal bank accounts dry up. Cry me a river. I voted for the financially responsible party and now my ACA, taxes and fixed income are fucked due to them!
bdamomma
(63,928 posts)this trade war is not only affecting the US, it's affecting the world and even the little island of Bermuda!!! Fucking Trump.
Corgigal
(9,291 posts)trump ask...How you like me now?
roamer65
(36,747 posts)Gerald Celente...trends forecaster.
We are rhyming the 1930s.
Liberal In Texas
(13,583 posts)Low interest rates, tax cuts and an inflated stock market. The stock market is built on a house of cards. Plus the Dow is not the economy. Trade war? Accelerate the resident problem.
We're in for some hard times with the Trump economy.
Get liquid.