Nate Silver gives CNN an A-, Gallup a B, just sayin

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[teamster633]

1. Thanks for the reminder...it does need sayin...

[Hortensis]

2. Just sayin' indeed. Fox's CNN transplant Alisyn Camerota's

show is the only one I occasionally see, looking for news in the morning, and to send her blatant Fox lies out into the nation alone should fail the network.

[former9thward]

3. I wonder what grade he gave himself on Election Day, 2016?

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Should have been very high

Nate Silver was probably the most astute analyst out there. He laughed at the 99% garbage and mocked the people who were asserting it. His explanation was the best of all...that if the state polling were wrong it would likely be wrong all over the place in the same direction, and it wouldn't take much of an error in the key states to push Trump over the top.

That's what people fail to grasp. These are hardly isolated outcomes. Everyone is voting on the same day or range of days, and being influenced by the same variables. You aren't going to have 4% error in favor of Hillary in one key swing state and 4% in favor of Trump in a similar swing state.

Silver had Hillary's likelihood much lower than virtually anyone else. He had it in the 65-72% range for the final two weeks. He wrote a long column detailing how much Comey had hurt Hillary's chances.

Hillary was absolutely the favorite. Both sides expected Hillary to win. The favorite doesn't always win. As I posted prior to the election, her odds were similar to a 5 point favorite in an NFL game. Nobody blinks when that type of favorite loses in sports. Somehow when the same thing happens in politics everybody goes nuts and ridicules the oddsmakers.

If political elections happened every day, like sports, we would become accustomed to unforeseen upsets.

[former9thward]

8. Really?

His projection Election Day morning after 5 hours of voting.

?w=575


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

[Imperialism Inc.]

12. Yes. Really.

A quick primer on probabilities. 28.6% is a different probability than 0%.

Unlike anyone else his model gave Trump a greater than 1 in 4 chance of winning. That would mean that the polls would have to have a slight systemic bias toward Clinton, or late breaking voters going to Trump, or him squeaking out an electoral college win despite losing the popular vote. All 3 happened!

I don't know, maybe you have swallowed Trump's b.s. about him winning bigly and have forgot what actually happened?

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Watch this Stephanopolous interview with Nate Silver from 2 days prior to election day

Nate basically nails everything. Silver says Hillary has a 65% chance but it is fragile considering comparative weakness in the midwest and with white working class voters. He contrasts Hillary's position to Obama at 85% likelihood in 2012 despite a similar 3 point national polling average. Silver says the 99% forecasts don't pass the common sense tests. Multiple times he emphasizes the electoral college weakness that Hillary faced.

Again, if you watched videos from other analysts at the same time frame they would have been dramatically more bullish on Hillary's chances. Silver wrongly takes the heat only because he is best known among the block, and he had Hillary above 50%:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/06/nate_silver_forecasts_showing_clinton_with_99_chance_of_winning_dont_pass_commonsense_test.html

[Hassin Bin Sober]

13. I was excoriated for posting one his warnings about possible outcomes a week before the election.

“Fuck Nate Silver, he’s a concern troll!!! Look at the Princeton poll!!! She’s at 99%!!!” was the gist of the comments.

The fact we were only a couple points ahead in some of the must-win battleground states was very troubling.

I always thought the polls hadn’t factored in the abject hate the right has for the Clintons. All my in laws are Republicans. They would crawl over broken glass to vote against any Clinton. It isn’t fair but it’s a fact of life.

What made me sit up, take notice, and gulp was Silver saying Trump basically had a one in four chance of winning - the same chance the Cubs had of winning The World Series. Being from Chicago, we were still celebrating the Cubs win.

[ProudLib72]

6. Be fair. He went through all the statistical wrangling believing the election was legitimate

OTOH, I have been reluctant to put my trust in him since November 2016, too.

[former9thward]

9. I have no problem with Silver.

I think he does a good job. But I treat polls for what they are -- polls and nothing more.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. And averaging the 45 and 39 keep Trump where he has been

Low 40s

Nate Silver is a compiler

Hopefully the CNN poll caught the immigration decline while Gallup had not, and a subsequent Gallup poll will include the same findings.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Gallup is a weekly poll as you know.

I suspect the Gallup poll captured the bounce from his phony summit. CNN was in the field from 5/14 - 5/17, after the bounce from the phony summit dissipated and the child hostage crisis came to the fore.

With that many children in custody how likely is it for one of those children to get sick or worse ?

What happens to his approval/disapproval ratings then?

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Good info on 5/14 to 5/17 CNN sampling

That makes sense regarding the border impact on one poll but not Gallup's 45%.

I plead guilty to not giving day to day developments much weight. Most of the time it helps me but apparently this immigration issue has more pull than I sensed, at least in the short term.

Trump has very low polling upside. That's always a given and needs to be kept in mind. Obama approval was eligible to rebound sharply over a stretch of several months. But Trump and his administration own so many divisive themes that one block or another is always under attack and rightfully turning against him.

[Kingofalldems]

7. Trump cavers not liking this one.

[Kingofalldems]

10. Kick this one.

[Quixote1818]

14. K and R - CNN 39% to 54% -- LOL! Brutal! nt

[Kingofalldems]

17. Kick this all night for the cavers.