Terrifying Corn Supply/Demand Situation Unfolding

[FarCenter]

The depressing yield situation Gulke is seeing in his fields, is common across the country. So common, that Informa Economics drastically chopped their corn yield estimate on Friday. Its corn yield projection is now 120.7 bu./acre. However, the firm's is expecting a final national average yield of 131 bu./acre.

...

On Friday, Aug. 10, USDA will release its first survey-based estimates for corn and soybeans. Currently USDA’s national corn yield average is currently 146 bu./acre. If they drop it down to the mid-120s like Informa, Gulke says we have a demand nightmare on our hands.

He says reducing feed needs, ethanol use and exports down to make Informa’s 120 estimate pencil out looks like an almost impossible job.

Gulke says on a recent CNBC segment, it was reported it takes 3 lbs. of corn to put a 1 lb. of gain on a hog, 5 lbs. of corn to put 1 lb. on a cow and about five times as much to make a gallon of ethanol. "There’s going to be a real push out there to do something about ethanol."

The general public, Gulke believes, is not going to want to see meat and food prices increase, at the expense of ethanol.

http://www.agweb.com/article/terrifying_corn_supplydemand_situation_unfolding/

[xchrom]

1. Du rec. Nt

[veganlush]

2. funny, we feed all that fiber to animals,

In the case of pigs we torture and kill them in factory farms....hmmmm, what to do.... how about boycotting cruelty, eat vegetables

[NoMoreWarNow]

4. eating less meat would definitely help a lot of issues

though much of the corn we grow is not good for human consumption, from what I understand.

[CrispyQ]

16. You are right.

Most of the corn grown in the US goes to feed animals & to the HFCS industry. Watch the documentary "King Corn." There was a scene of a farmer in a field of corn & he said, "All this corn & it's not fit for eating." It's really a great movie!

This movie is a few years old, so I don't know how much is now grown for ethanol.

[chervilant]

20. Food, Inc.

is another essential documentary.

BTW, I have gone Vegan, for health reasons. The carnivores in my circle of friends are really torqued by my decision.

[Marrah_G]

63. I've gone mostly vegetarian (I still eat local seafood)

Like you it's for health reasons. My family and friends have been really supportive. My mom was the only one concerned about nutrition but I put her at ease explaining my other sources of protein.

[Zalatix]

17. Then where will people get their protein? Beans?

[MindMover]

49. Get a steam cooker and cook up a cup of rice and beans and voila ....

very good protein and very good for you ... a lot better than meat ....

[Zalatix]

50. I'll be healthier but also miserable. Beans make me gag.

And knowing my luck, you will probably hate beans a few hours after I have had them...

[MindMover]

51. I buy a digestive aid without pancreatin and solves all gas issues related to eating

any protein including beef ... by the way, if you are over 45 years old, you should be using a digestive aid anyway ....

[Zalatix]

53. Any natural digestive aid suggestions?

[MindMover]

57. Grapefruit extract and if 10 drops mixed with your orange juice

doesn't get you going in the morning then I take some bitters in the evening ...

[JDPriestly]

55. Lots of calories. That's for sure.

[caseymoz]

22. Vegetarianism will make farm animals extinct.

Just saying. The only reason why those animals have a niche and are doing so much better than most wild animals is that we raise them for food.

[CrispyQ]

32. "those animals have a niche and are doing so much better than most wild animals"

I assume by 'doing so much better than' you are referring simply to their numbers, not their quality of life. The life of a factory farm animal is one of the most cruel & inhumane on this planet. The conditions we perpetrate on layer hens is particularly heinous.

[caseymoz]

36. Yes, I'm referring only to their numbers.

Extinction's irreversible. You can alleviate or stop suffering, but once a species is gone, it's forever.

And if you ask me, the whole natural, ultimate purpose of pain, as far as the animal feeling it is concerned, is to prompt it to avoid death if it can.

Farm animals cannot be introduced into the wild. They make poor pets. Nobody's going to raise them except for food and money. If human's stop eating meat, their habitat is gone. So far we've been poor at rescuing and maintaining endangered species.

I don't like the treatment of food animals either. However, the basic problem is human overpopulation. We could improve their conditions, but the fact we have to feed so many human beings, which then just grows our population, makes the lives of other animals miserable or impossible.

I have another thought: that is farm animals might just evolve and adapt to the conditions we've put them in, perhaps becoming extremophiles. However, that's at least a thousand years in the future, too far to be a considered in their treatment today. Besides, I think our food production system will collapse long before that.

[CrispyQ]

44. Overpopulation - a topic that riles many, even on DU.

The resistance to discussing this issue just boggles the mind. We are so clinical when we talk about other species overpopulation but our own? Head in the sand.

I think our food production system is going to collapse sooner than anyone expects. Soylent Green may have been prophetic.

[Ghost in the Machine]

78. " So far we've been poor at rescuing and maintaining endangered species."

Tell that to the alligators in South Florida and the Whitetail Deer populations in East Tennessee... both were hunted to almost extinction, and were endangered species, but they are way over-populated now, to the point of becoming a nuisance...

just saying....

Peace,

Ghost

[caseymoz]

85. So, what's the percentage?

How about the blue whale? The manatee? The tiger? Or the condor?

Meanwhile, we've introduced pythons to the Florida Everglades which might reverse the success with the alligator. For mass extinctions, it's just getting started.

[NCarolinawoman]

81. *****

[RebelOne]

38. Well, that's good as I am a vegetarian,

and I would like to see many farm animals saved and not used for food.

[caseymoz]

48. You don't understand.

The only niche those animals have is living on a farm. If they aren't raised for food, they can't be released into the wild. I think they will literally become extinct.

[Marrah_G]

66. That's silly

First of all, they wouldn't be "released into the wild". Even if everyone went vegetarian, people would not all do so at once. Also, many farm animals like cows, goats, sheep, chickens, ducks etc have other contributions besides flesh. Dairy, eggs, wool, pest control...

[caseymoz]

74. Didn't I say they couldn't be . . .

released into the wild? Sheep and wool is one thing, but it's questionable whether cows are viable to raise if you can't sell the meat. If people have ethical problems with killing cows for food, why wouldn't they have it for clothing and accessories? Plus, you take food away from a cow and that's a major hit on revenue. The cost of raising them wouldn't be worth it.

For chickens and eggs, it depends on if we're talking people going vegan.

I'm not talking about this happening in our lifetimes, but in a thousand or two thousand years. My point is, that going vegetarian because you have an ethical objection to food animals has, at its center, a paradox. If you don't need the animal for food, or leather, and so on, what would keep it from going extinct like many other animals? Food animal has become its niche.

[Marrah_G]

79. Cows and goats = dairy

Sheep = wool

[caseymoz]

83. But if the reason for avoiding slaughter . . .

Last edited Wed Aug 8, 2012, 09:08 PM - Edit history (1)

. . . is that it consumes too much grain, (I mean, how many pounds of grain go into a pound of beef?) They're still going to be consuming that much grain to convert it to milk. That grain and soy could instead be fed to people directly. Therefore the same efficiency problem that started this sub-thread applies to milk cows as well. If you're so desperate to feed people that beef and pork become luxuries, then milk becomes a luxury, too.

I'll also say, if you're going to replace the meat protein with milk, dairy conditions are going to be as inhumane as they are now for pork and beef livestock. They would have to suck as much milk out of those animals as possible. They'd be injected with hormones and never be allowed to leave their stall. Guilt will certainly be a temptation.

[JDPriestly]

56. You would still have to feed the cows -- and corn is not their natural

diet. They prefer grass. There isn't much pasture left to feed cows.

[1-Old-Man]

62. I'd be willing to bet an awful lot that what you just predicted will never happen.

[caseymoz]

75. Okay, over what period of time?

I'm talking about in 1,000-10,000 years. If nobody eats meat then, what do you picture farm animals becoming, then? Pets? Farm animals are pretty badly behaved, and they make ferrets look cleanly.

I'm just pointing out there's an irony to vegetarianism as a moral position. You're not just saying you won't kill the animals; you're also saying you don't need them, either. So, today what's happening to animals human being don't need? Many of them are going extinct, and many times we can't seem to find the collective effort to save them.

[Marrah_G]

64. Not the ones for dairy and eggs

[caseymoz]

76. Depends on if people go vegan.

But otherwise, what you're saying there is true.

[Marrah_G]

80. I doubt the world would ever go vegan

maybe vegetarian someday. I think that at the very least lowering of meat consumption is something that may well come to pass. People are beginning to think more about what they eat.

[caseymoz]

84. Humankind might not have a choice. nt

[FedUpWithIt All]

39. We have screwed up the cycle.

To grow enough vegetables, to support human life on this planet, takes a lot of input. This input is a return, to the soil, of nutrients and fertilizers.

The most natural system replaces these things through the waste of the creatures who consume the plant life. To do away with the natural system you have to create a synthetic system. This requires MASSIVE amounts of dangerous and destructive chemicals, many of which are petroleum based.

The largely abandoned model, of natural grass fed livestock's (grass being a plant source easily grown on marginal land and unsuitable for human consumption) waste returned to agricultural land as a fertilizer, is the most responsible method of food production. The animals are treated ethically and allowed to behave in a natural manner, the cycle of nutrients is preserved and there is little, non sustainable, energy lost.

[Marrah_G]

67. I am a big fan of grassfed, free rage animals

There is a natural rotation that is great for the animals and for the land

[snooper2]

65. because I love the look on my daughter's face

When I come inside and start slicing this on her plate for her--


MMMM MMMM gooooooooooooooood Daaady!

[veganlush]

86. i raised both of my kids

Without carrion, and they love that fact. it also means zero dietary cholesterol. vegans are animal lovers, animal lovers are vegan.

[veganlush]

87. you can be almost certain

That if she isn't kept in the dark, if she's not made into a low information type, if you trust her with the truth of its origin, she might well change her mind. I know meat tastes good, I used to eat it before I became aware of the costs. if you give a child an Apple and a piglet, they,ll bite the Apple and play with the pig, not the other way around. she'll identify with it as a fellow traveller, a fellow being with the ability to feel.thats why what happens to factory farms animals is kept so hidden. most people would give up bacon if they let themselves know how pigs are treated, for example. ditto for the other fellow mortals. we can eat just fine without requiring cruelty

[lunatica]

3. This is bad news

It is scary

[Fresh_Start]

5. I always felt it was obscene to turn food into fuel

while there are so many people starving on this planet

[RC]

14. I agree. It takes way too much energy in the form of fossil fuels to produce and land to

grow the corn to produce ethanol to burn that results just as much pollution as gasoline does. Overall there is no gain, except for the corn growers.

My 2004 4cyl car gets 19-20 MPG around town with ethanol. With real gasoline, without any ethanol, it gets 24/25. I pay more for the real gas, but cost wise, it breaks even.
Oh, and it runs better also. A little more peppier. I'm not seeing any "savings" with ethanol. On the road, I gotten up to 32/33 MPG with real gas. 27/28 over the same route with ethanol.

[HereSince1628]

6. Something to help put those yield numbers in perspective...

Over the past 50 years the US has tended to not to have long runs of back-to-back low yields




There is a lot more corn from non-US sources going into the market.

[amandabeech]

70. We'll have a per acre yield around that from '65-'70.

It will be a good year to go on a diet.

[HereSince1628]

82. My renters corn looks about that poor, but the soy is making a good recovery...

it was blooming at the end of last week. If it rains simliar to what we've had over the past 10 days he'll do Ok.

[amandabeech]

88. That's great.

Maybe my Mom's renters will come out okay on their hay. My Mom's in Michigan north of the hard drought. They only have D-1, and the hay will come back if there's some rain in the fall. The corn is toast, though.

[bemildred]

7. It's not nice to fool Mother Nature. nt

[pnwest]

8. Ya think "terrifying" might be a little strong, here?

Alarmist much?

[Zalatix]

18. Yeah, say that 6 months from now when you look at your grocery bill.

Or if you live in Mexico, or another third world nation which will be drastically hit by this.

Terrifying? Right on the mark for them.

[Dash87]

21. "Terrifying" is a sensationalist buzz-word.

It's meant to grab your attention so that you will read the story.

[Marrah_G]

68. It is scary for people who live week to week and are just getting by

Higher food prices can make a really big impact on their lives. Those people who can least afford the hike in prices are often the ones without the ability to garden to supplement their pantries.

[wilsonbooks]

9. The article calls for problems with a 120 bushels per acre corn crop.

Most of the Missouri corn crop is completely gone. Millions of acres of burnt up crops. I expect the situation is almost as bad in the rest of the corn belt. Look for meat prices to skyrocket.

[wilsonbooks]

10. This article was written before this years drought. Farmers are further reducing their herds

because the pastures are dried up and there is no hay left to feed. This is the worst drought to hit the midwest since the 50's.

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Cattle-numbers-lowest-since-1952-138223369.html

The numbers in the USDA’s January 1 cattle-inventory report, released on January 27, suggest continued short supplies and high prices for calves and feeder cattle. The report also hints, however, that the trend toward herd reduction could be starting to turn around.
The report shows all cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2012 totaled 90.8 million head, 2 percent below the 92.7 million on January 1, 2011. This is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cattle and calves since 1952, when USDA recorded a total of 88.1 million head.
All cows and heifers that have calved were down by 2 percent from a year ago, while beef cows were down by 3 percent.
The drought and forage shortage across much of the south pushed large numbers of calves into feedyards rather than winter grazing programs. As a result, the total for calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 25.7 million head, down 4 percent. The number of cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, at 14.1 million head, was up 1 percent from a year ago.

[hobbit709]

11. Maybe it will make HFCS more expensive than actual sugar.

[GoCubsGo]

15. That's what I am hoping.

I have notice that it is already being taken out of a number of products due to people complaining about it being in there. Maybe this will push the manufacturers to get rid of it altogether.

I'm hoping they'll also do the same regarding corn meal and corn gluten in pet food.

[6502]

27. Funny... I'm not against HFCS, but I think our goals might have converged...

(With climate science, I'm totally on board. I can go to the NOAA and know that my tax dollars paid for the reports by government scientists that have triple-checked the climate data with the best qualified minds in the world. Sadly, when it comes to HFCS, I have not done the same. I have not checked the FDA or CDC nor have followed any research on the topic... I'm in the dark. Anyway... that's why I cannot form a position on HFCS, yet... but... read on...)

... You see, I feel that one of the big problems with health in the US as related to obesity and diabetes is that companies wantonly use sugar to hook people. It doesn't matter if it is cane sugar, beet sugar, HFCS, or sugar from seaweed --- You drink 8oz of any of it umpteen times a day from when you are 5, you'll be diabetic by the time your a teen... Have it in too many foods and you'll be obese).

High levels of sugar with high levels of salt result in about the same flavor as less of both (because they kind of cancel each other out)... but I think that the body notices the high level of sugar charge in the food and gets us subconsciously hooked to that food. (The brain just records "calories per gram in that thing I ate was much higher than expected and higher than X other things... must make note to eat more of it!"... It's an evolutionary adaption in all animals, I believe).

HFCS have replaced cane and beet sugar in most foods.
It's because it is crazy inexpensive.
Everything is tooled for HFCS.

Well, with that said:

* Corn prices go up.
* HFCS goes up because corn prices go up.
* Too costly to retool for cane or beet sugar.
* Retooling and then paying the higher price will turn off most CEOS.
* Cheaper to just reduce the amount of sugar in the product to maintain profits.
* Oh... and that means they'll have to reduce the salt too to keep the flavor balanced.

... wait for it...


Win win.

[4th law of robotics]

73. It would take a lot to do that

considering we place tariffs on sugar but subsidize corn.

/ending grain subsidies would solve a lot of our problems.

[DCKit]

12. Let's not fool ourselves. They'll happily raise gas prices, too. nt

[Oilwellian]

13. We could always cut consumption by...

eating it raw.

[Thor_MN]

24. The corn they are talking about is NOT sweet corn.

It is grass, but it may as well be wood. The whole why do we turn food into ethanol argument is bunk. Field corn is not food. It can be processed into corn oil, it can be processed into HFCS (which would be even more evil according to some who alaways need something to rant against). There are thousands of products that can be made from corn. Livestock will eat it, but they will happily eat grass.

Granted, the land used for field corn could be used for food, but reality is that the economics favor field corn. If we want more food to be grown, we will need to change the laws that make corn more profitable. It is by nature relatively easy to harvest and separate from the chaff, but the big agra companies have compounded that via lobbying to get subsidies that make it the logical crop. Until there is equal or more profit in something else no amount of wailing and handwringing is going change "Why do we turn food into ethanol?".

[sybylla]

28. You're forgetting anything made with corn flour is made with field corn.

Cereals, tortillas, corn bread, and more, are made primarily with corn flour, not to mention all the processed foods that have corn flour as a secondary ingredient. There's more of it in our food supply than you think. Which will mean higher prices across our food supply next year.

[MADem]

60. You can do the same thing with hemp, and it grows in a hurry!

If only someone would think of that! Oh wait...they have! Pity they can't get moving on it...

[amandabeech]

71. Some types of field corn can be consumed by humans.

Some types are made into corn flour for corn muffins and cornbread. Other kinds are treated with lye and made into grits, breakfast cereal for the south for reasons that I can't fathom. Can't stand them unless they're swimming in cheese with some jalapeno. I'm also a popcorn fan. Of course, these uses aren't of the same magnitude as animal food.

Thor, please correct me if I am wrong, but aren't beans, at least white and navy beans, grown in some of the areas that also grow grain, like North Dakota and the thumb area of Michigan. Those spots aren't getting a lot of rain either. Perhaps more beans are in storage than corn, but I doubt if beans are going to be a bumper crop, either.

Pasture must be in bad shape your way, too.

I'm from western lower Michigan originally, and we grow almost all the tart pie cherries in the U.S. and a nice chunk of the apples and blueberries. The warm March followed by cold nights in April took out all the cherries and apples and left a really short blueberry crop. Corn and hay don't look too good, either, including that on the family farmland that my Mom and Aunt still own.

I'm not looking forward to seeing starving deer this winter, either. I hope that folks who know how to handle a gun will go out and get their buck and doe this year. I'd rather see their meat in the freezer than their starved carcasses in the fields.

[allan01]

19. re:Terrifying Corn Supply/Demand

ethonal has nothing to do with the increase of corn. it is the cost of the transportation. ie deisel fuel going up and up and up . we know who all controls that now dont we.

[safeinOhio]

23. I do what I have to do.

I already eat less beef. When gas went up, I drove less, so I'm spending about the same as before. It sucks, but is doable. Now, I'll eat more fish and game that I'll catch and kill. Taste better.

Lower demand will bring lower prices.

[HopeHoops]

25. Curiously, sweet corn is doing extremely well. Feed corn is not. Go figure.

It's usually the opposite in weather like this.

[sybylla]

29. That probably has to do with the timing of the drought.

Sweet corn typically has a shorter season, so it was better developed and better able to handle the lack of water than field corn.

[HopeHoops]

47. The rule is "knee high by the 4th of July". They planted in March and are already harvesting.

Feed corn tends to be a bit more rigid in the planting schedule. This season's fucked. But the shrub will still eat feed corn raw.

[fredamae]

26. At least part of the solution

is Drought Resistant Industrial Hemp! Jobs, Fuel, Fiber and Much more

[drokhole]

30. Industrial Hemp!!! Can't be emphasized enough...

Would be great for us, but not good for Big Agra / the corn lobby. From what I understand, it requires fewer chemicals, less water and less processing than corn, as well.

Also, cows/herbivores should not be eating corn in the first place. It's completely unnatural to their diet, causing all kinds of health problems (which require the over-use of antibiotics), while decimating the nutritional content/density/profile of beef.

[nc4bo]

31. +1

Saw the subject line of the post and meandered in ready to post the benefits of industrial hemp.

What's it going to take for us to smarten up?

You beat me to it

[fredamae]

34. Well, Then that's a good thing-that means

at least two of us are remembering the Best Ag Crop available for our changing climate.
Big ag missed the boat decades ago by ignoring this little miracle plant, now didn't they?

[nc4bo]

41. Big Anything purpo$ely mi$$e$ the boat.

They control the messages, the crops, the method of production, ect. and on top of all of that, they make sure they have the ears of our politicians and use their money and influence against us.

Big Oil. Big Pharma. Big Banks. Big Agri. could be so beneficial but because of greed, they do much harm.

We're not just consumers of the products, we're victims of them too.

We really do need to change our ways. If we keep facing these severe droughts, heat waves, acreage consuming fires, we'll be forced to, kicking and screaming.

[shanti]

33. +2

[CrispyQ]

35. At some point we'll be forced into doing a lot of things we don't do but should.

Arghh!! Why does it always take getting right to the edge of the cliff before we, as a collective, come to our senses? And in this century, are we going to come to our senses in time? I have my doubts.

Good reading on the whole cow/animal husbandry thing is Howard Lyman's "Mad Cowboy." He doesn't proselytize or lecture, he just tells the difference between raising cows when he was a kid & big agra's version of raising beef. The best chapter in the book is titled "Bovine Planet" & he details the impact that livestock as a food source is having on our environment, from factory farms to grazing. The last sentence in the chapter is terrifying: And with desert will come famine.

Mother Nature is about to kick our collective butt down a notch or two.

[GreenPartyVoter]

77. +2

[Marrah_G]

69. I wish I could rec your post

[johnd83]

37. Is this cat litter made from edible corn?

"World's Best Cat Litter™ is the only natural cat litter on the market made from whole-kernel corn. Learn more about the absorbent power of all-natural,..."


http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CJwBEBYwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldsbestcatlitter.com%2F&ei=e2EdUKmkCom56wHC14GoCw&usg=AFQjCNHIw3ototMlcoRWpwRgIymG9N-bWQ&sig2=smqPf734FHnLhyYgtK0Pjg


If so it just makes me really angry.

[FarCenter]

40. Edible by animals, if not by humans.

From their faq -- "Using whole corn kernels, World's Best Cat Litter™ is safe and made from renewable resources."

http://www.worldsbestcatlitter.com/natural-formulas/frequently-asked-questions/

So it could at least be fed to cattle, pigs, or chickens.

[Poll_Blind]

59. Why does that make you "really angry"? It's totally biodegradable and safe.

I mean, you're talking like the corn they use in the cat litter was somehow destined for your table or some starving person's table. While the corn they use (from what I've heard) is edible, you have to realize this stuff is not the corn you pick up at the supermarket to eat. It's almost certainly "loss" material which wouldn't have been used for human consumption anyway, the exact same thing that happens to meat trimmings and bits which wind up in moist/dry pet food. For instance, something like the corn which remains on the cob after the main portion of the kernel is sliced away during processing for canned corn. Just an example.

On their website, they state:

The proprietary plant-derived ingredient in World's Best Cat Litter™ Multiple Cat Clumping Formula is a natural plant material used for animal feed.

As in, yes, it's technically edible. Technically.

But don't go getting it confused with something like Newman's Own dog food, which uses human-edible grade beef. What you're upset about isn't what you think you're upset about.

PB

[redqueen]

61. I've only seen litter made from corn cobs.

No idea what that stuff is.

[just1voice]

42. Prices may go up but demand will go down down down

People don't have the extra money to spend, we'll just eat less or shop locally if living in a non-drought area.

[lovuian]

43. China Buys Almost 1 Million Tons of U.S. Corn,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-25/china-buys-almost-1-million-tons-of-u-s-corn-will-probably-purchase-more.html

why are we selling our corn to China?

this is what happen to the Irish when their food they grew was bought by England and they starved

[own your story]

45. Well if you Latte Libruls would stop eating all those

dead, tortured animals, it'd be a start!

It's not just about talking big--it's about ACTION. And that goes for what we expect in our leaders, too! I don't want to get sweet nothings whispered in my ear and a mint on the pillow--I was REAL old-fashunned PROGRESSIVE DOINGS!!!!!!!!!!

[D23MIURG23]

46. We should not be making ethanol from corn in the first place.

If we are going the biofuel route, switchgrass has a more favorable energetic yield per joule invested.

[DDO16kadams]

52. Ethanol

Ethanol will save us... And ruin out fuel.

Switch to diesel like Europe and quit this corn crap. More corn more supply, less ethanol more corn.

[Enrique]

54. maybe it is DUs fault

[Amonester]

58. Will probably happen soon.

The Congress is so functional, nobody would think they'd not rush to solve everything in less than a week.

[4th law of robotics]

72. I'm not thrilled by the circumstances but if the silver lining is that we get rid of bio-ethanol

then I'll take it.

What an idiotic policy.