Even if Trump got impeached by the U.S. House...

[left-of-center2012]

It would take 67 votes in the Senate to convict
and get him out.

With a "blue wave" this fall,
we may have 55 Democratic Senators.

And even if we get Trump out,
we'd have President Pence (and 'mother').

[gratuitous]

1. Well then, might as well not even try

Thanks for your persuasive concern.

[Garrett78]

40. A failed attempt at impeachment could prove costly for Democrats.

[marylandblue]

2. If Republican lose both the house and the Senate

they will have no incentive to back Trump anymore.

#GOTV

[emulatorloo]

7. Very good point.

[unblock]

10. Not clear at all.

Republican worry most about getting re-elected and as their states (and gerrymandered districts in the House) get reduced in number, the ones remaining will be even more partisan.

That means they worry more about getting primaries than the general as the general is usually a forgone conclusion.

They can be pissed and disappointed with Donnie, but they won't do anything to piss of their base.


Basically, Donnie can't be removed via impeachment or forced resignation until foxnews turns on him.

Don't count on it.

[marylandblue]

16. I think there is about to be an historic shift in the Democrat's favor

I could be wrong of course. But they've been losing in districts that have been red for years. If that happens in November, they won't have so many safe seats anymore and the whole dynamic will shift. I should make an OP about why I think that will happen.

[unblock]

18. I hope so. Demographics continue to help us. But I don't think we're there quite yet

I do think we have an unusually good chance to win one or both houses even before our real demographic advantage kicks in, due to the outrageous incompetence and contempt for democracy from the trumpies.

However, many districts and states will stay red despite all this. And if this doesn't change their minds, what will it take???

[marylandblue]

27. See my thinking on this here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210638409

[Garrett78]

42. Yep. The Trump base is the Republican base. Republicans can't afford to alienate that base.

Even if there's a blue wave (leading to very slight majorities for Democrats), don't expect Republicans to change much. After all, Trump is a monster of the GOP's making. He's more outlandish - more overt in his bigotry - but Republican rhetoric and policies over the last 50 years (going back to Nixon and the Southern Strategy) have set the stage for someone like Trump. He's pretty representative of who Republicans are.

[unblock]

43. He's *exactly* who republicans are because that's all he cares about

He is *only* interested in representing the republican view (his). He is the first president to operate with complete contempt for people outside his own party.

So *of course* he's got stronger by support within his party. Every other politician inevitably is somewhat disappointing to their party because they all try to appeal to a broader coalition, they all want to represent as big a majority as they can, not just their own party.

Donnie said screw that, so he can give republicans, at least in rhetoric if not policy, exactly what they want, without watering it down to be palatable for the rest of us.

[guillaumeb]

13. That would take a miracle.

Given the gerrymandering and the fact that so many lightly populated rural states are so filled with conservatives.

[uponit7771]

44. +1, ... and the house and Senate can start investigating where KGOP PACs are getting their money fro

... I'm sure the NRA isn't the only outfit getting stocked with Russian cash.

[manor321]

3. Strategy

It's about continuing to bury his administration under (real) scandals to hamstring them from being effective while in office. And of course taking the House or Senate would kill any horrible bills from passing.

[guillaumeb]

14. The House alone is all that is needed,

If the Democrats win the House, and if they resist the lure of bi-partisan accomplishment, Trump's legislative agenda would be stopped.

[EffieBlack]

28. I think the Senate's more important

Because judges

[guillaumeb]

29. The number of Democratic Senate seats that are up for election this year

make that goal a difficult one. My view.

[EffieBlack]

31. I know. But a girl can dream

[empedocles]

4. Pence is indictable

Timing here would be tricky. Trump out after January 20, Pence quickly taken down. Dem house speaker next in line. The times have been somewhat unpredictable.

[unblock]

19. There is zero chance of a party change via impeachment.

Even if Republicans agree to help to remove both Donnie and pence, they'll never help with the timing that causes a Democrat to become president.

[empedocles]

5. Pence is indictable

Timing here would be tricky. Trump out after January 20, Pence quickly taken down. Dem house speaker next in line. The times have been somewhat unpredictable.

[emulatorloo]

6. Pence has the charisma of a sack of potatoes. Couldn't sell ice water to people in hell

Not a big fan of those who try to scare us off from working to get rid of Trump by using Pence as a boogeyman. Ymmv.

At any rate GOTV

[Jake Stern]

32. To me that's the scariest thing of all

While staring horrified at the guy screaming and waving a machete we overlook the quiet man a few feet away who is setting the timer on his bomb.

[emulatorloo]

33. Point is Trump can sell his destructive policies to his supporters. Pence can't sell anything

Indiana was sick of him.

[Jake Stern]

36. The hardcore 30ish percent that support Trump will almost certainly back Pence

and much of the rest will come into the fold over things like judicial appointments and laws stripping away LGBT rights, etc.

Not to mention the Trump voters who would feel stung by his impeachment and see supporting Pence as a gigantic "fuck you" to the libruls.

Pence doesn't have to sell squat - Right Wingers fears will do all the selling for him.

[USALiberal]

37. Pence is worse! Just as insane but acts normal. Nt

[Fozzledick]

8. I expect it will go pretty much like Watergate.

The Republicans kept defending Nixon even though they knew he was guilty as hell as long as they thought the cover-up would hold.

Once the cover-up fell apart and the evidence of his guilt was exposed and undeniable they couldn't turn against him fast enough to try to save themselves.

[Ccarmona]

9. Not to Mention the Growing Groundswell of Outrage from Their Constituents n/t.

[PuppyBismark]

11. Not if Pence is first indited, no constitutional protection for VP's

It is just a matter of timing. If there is any significant problems with Pence, both would go and with a Democratic majority in the House, the 1600 Pennsylvania is ours.

[oberliner]

12. He's not going to be impeached

[grantcart]

15. There is no path to more than 52 Dem senators and that would be a miracle

Last edited Sun May 20, 2018, 09:53 PM - Edit history (1)

The Republicans are going to control the Pres until 2021

Any other scenario is fantasy.

[left-of-center2012]

17. 2013 ?

Maybe you mean 2023?

[grantcart]

30. Lol 2021, man that is depressing.

[elocs]

20. "Any other scenario is fantasy." But this is the DU fantasy universe.

If you really, really want something to happen well then it just must happen exactly as you fantasize it will.

And this is not 1974 with Richard Nixon either.
But fantasize away.

[no_hypocrisy]

21. I'd accept keeping him where he is until 2021,

with enough Democrats in the House and Senate to neutralize his attempts to make policy. The only thing (without a 60+ advantage in the Senate) that could be problematic would be his Executive Orders, which would only last until he's voted out.

[mercuryblues]

23. That is the 1st thing Bannon

did when he went to the WH. got all of Obama's executive orders and had trump rescind them. Hopefully, with a Democratic controlled congress, much of Obama's EOs can become law.

[mercuryblues]

22. I have zero faith that republicans will vote to impeach

To many are complicit and trump won't go down by himself.

IMO the reason we need to control both houses is to neuter trump. Show Democratic priorities to the voting public via passing bills to help the American people. Forcing trump to either sign them or veto them. Give the 2020 presidential voters a reason to vote for a Democratic President.

Make things law so he can't govern by fiat. When trump wants to order a department like the USPS to arbitrarily raise rates on select businesses, a Dem congress can shut him down.

[beachbum bob]

24. The big picture is making the GOP either defend a crook or turn on him

Makes 2020 another blue tidal wave and more democrats in office where the senate has a filibuster proof majority...and a democratic president and the mandate of the American people. So don't think impeaching trump is a waste at all

[cynatnite]

25. House wins mean Dems will have subpoena power...

I'm not hanging my hat on a blue wave. I'll wait until August or September before I get my hopes up at all.

A house win would be huge. It doesn't mean that the current repubs will run from tRump. They're too scared of their base. Their posturing and fake outrage will continue.

[canetoad]

26. Laurence Tribe

On Rachel Maddow a few days ago. "You only get one shot at [impeaching] a president."

[NCTraveler]

34. Bring on Pence. Nt

[Jake Stern]

35. While impeachment would make us feel all warm and fuzzy

It will also light a fire under the asses of on-the-fence Republicans to get out and vote. They will rally around Trump.

[USALiberal]

38. Trump will never be impeached. Nt

[Thunderbeast]

39. Defending him MUST become an un-tenable position

The criminal investigation and Democratic hearings in the Democratic House CAN make continued support by GOP Senators impossible. These guys have to defend themselves in re-election bids that are much less safe in statewide races where the gerrymandered districts don't provide the safety of a House race.

I believe that the Mueller report will be persuasive....even to conservative Republicans. They may not care about his sex life, but they may finally understand the web of corruption is real, and that the Russians, Saudis, and Chinese DID buy significant foreign policy concessions with direct aid to his campaign and his business interests


The Obstruction of Justice and Abuse of Power cases will also be beyond dispute....even to GOP Senators who do not wish to stain their reputations or re-election chances.

[BlueTsunami2018]

41. If it is proven that he committed multiple crimes against America....

Not impeaching and removing him would say an awful lot. Wouldn’t they have to remove him?

This isn’t lying about a blow job, this is treason. It’s not partisan.