Sanders & Biden Remain Front-runners - The Granite State Poll - University of NH

[Donkees]

April 25, 2018

By: AndrewE.Smith,Ph.D. [e-mail]
ZacharyS.Azem,M.A. 603-862-2226
SeanP.McKinley,M.A. cola.unh.edu/survey-center

Excerpt:

When provided a list of potential candidates to choose from for the 2020 nomination, 28% of likely Democratic primary voters choose the 2016 NH winner, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 26% choose former Vice President Joe Biden, and 11% favor Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Fewer likely voters choose Kamala Harris (6%), Cory Booker (5%), Joseph Kennedy III (3%), Martin O'Malley (2%), Kirsten Gillibrand (1%), ...

Support for Sanders (28%) has slightly increased since February (24%), while support for Biden (26%) has fallen since February (35%).

Support for Warren (11%) has slightly declined since February while Kamala Harris (6%) now garners the fourth highest support in the field. Likely Democratic primary voters who live in the Connecticut Valley or Manchester Area, and those aged 18 to 34 are more likely than others to support Sanders.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2018_spring_primary42518.pdf

[Wwcd]

1. ehh?

[katmondoo]

2. Not with me

I love Biden but he is too old. No comment about Bernie

[wonkwest]

3. Eh, neither, thanks

I like them both, but they both have problems specific to each of them that lend themselves to not being effective presidents. Biden has too many ghosts and Sanders just triggers 2016 bitterness too much. Not necessarily his fault, but it's a reality.

It's time to look forward. Give me a Harris or Booker or O'Malley.

I want Biden and Sanders to contribute to the conversation, to speak to the constituencies we need - the blue collar, working class Democrats who have watched their unions dissolve over the past few decades.

But we need to go forward. We do best when we're looking ahead. Obama tapped into that spirit. Whoever comes next needs to do the same. I don't think Biden or Sanders are it.

But I'm glad if their voices are respected and can draw apathetic or new voters in. Let them get out there and do that. Just not president. We need to undo Trump and move ahead. Not stand in place or go back to 2006-2010 and figure that's some kind of progress. If we go two steps back, our next Democratic president needs to go three steps forward.

[Fullduplexxx]

4. Bs has been beaten by warren

[NCTraveler]

5. Neither Sanders or Biden will be getting my vote in a primary.

Unless it is a two person field, then Biden would get my vote. That would not make me happy.

[NCTraveler]

6. The increase in Democrats interest in the primary conmpared to independents and republicans is sweet

That is what should be highlighted. Yeah. I know. That isn't as divisive.

The trend line for Sanders over the last six months isn't that good while Harris has grown exponentially. And this is only using 22% registered democrats in the poll. Looking good for Harris and the democrats at this point.

IS BERNIE SANDERS'S 2020 SUPPORT SLIPPING? A SURVEY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS SAYS YES

Voters in a state that helped launch Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders's 2016 bid for the presidency may not be "feeling the Bern" as much two years later, now that it's rumored the senator could run again in 2020.

Sanders trails Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as well as former Vice President Joe Biden in a survey of New Hampshire voters' preferred 2020 candidate, according to new polling from Suffolk University released on Wednesday. Sanders won over just 13 percent of New Hampshire voters, while Warren was preferred by 26 percent of the respondents and Biden by 20 percent. New Jersey Senator Cory Booker fell below Sanders with 8 percent, California Senator Kamala Harris and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick each got 4 percent, and former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe and New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand received 2 percent each.

The poll was administered more than two years ahead of 2020's general election, but the results suggest that a state that once considered Sanders their first choice for president is open to other options when presented with a slate of potential Democratic contenders.

“For someone who hasn't visited New Hampshire in over a year, Joe Biden’s popularity is strong and steady," David Paleologos, Suffolk University Political Research Center's Boston director said. "What is perhaps surprising is that Bernie Sanders—who secured 60 percent of the New Hampshire Democratic primary vote in 2016—is retaining less than half of that support two years later."

http://www.newsweek.com/are-bernie-sanderss-2020-polling-numbers-slipping-survey-new-hampshire-voters-908766

A new 2020 primary poll has some really bad news for Bernie Sanders

A fresh 2020 Democratic presidential primary poll released Wednesday shows Sen. Bernie Sanders in a distant third place among a large pack of potential Democratic nominees — a troubling sign for the Vermont independent, who is mulling whether to make another run for the White House.

A Suffolk University poll of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters found Sanders trailing Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. In the poll, Warren leads the pack with 26%, followed by Biden with 20% and Sanders a distant third with just 13%.

https://mic.com/articles/189179/a-new-2020-primary-poll-has-some-really-bad-news-for-bernie-sanders#.eoZx5HHkN

Elizabeth Warren leads potential Dem field

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2018/05/liz_warren_leads_potential_dem_field

Herald says it's bad news for Warren as the early leader in NH often doesn't do well. Guess we can go with your article in that case. lol

[aikoaiko]

7. That's understandable. Bernie and Joe have the most experience on the national stage...

...of the politicians listed.

Booker, Harris, Warren, O'Malley, Kennedy, and Gillibrand can bring their A-game after 2018 elections.

Or maybe someone else.

[karynnj]

8. Too early -- this probably reflects mainly name recognition

This also is why Iowa (and NH in the primary season) are important. After the midterms this year, many of the people now getting single digits and maybe some not on the list at all will be testing the water in Iowa. If they feel there is a chance, they will announce a run - and get a limited amount of coverage for that. In past primaries, people in Iowa have come out to listen to potential candidates.

It is really hard to know which campaigns will gain traction. When Sanders announced in 2015, I would have guessed that O'Malley would be stronger than Sanders. I actually thought that O'Malley could benefit from Clinton and Sanders countering each other, but I thought that Hillary was by far the strongest and very likely to win the nomination.

I think 2020 is more like 2004 and 1992 than other recent years. In those years, there was a wide field with no real dominant front runner. (In 1992, Cuomo would have been the front runner had he run.) When the pre-primaries actually start, it could become a very interesting election.

One thought -- the Trump tool of setting groups against one another has created more deep divisions than at any time in my life time - and I lived through the 1960s. I suspect that many people want that to end -- but both sides have their opinions formed by "their" various media. Consider that Obama, who went out of his way to be high minded and fair, is seen through a very strange filter by the Fox News fed segment of the population. This may mean that those arguing that we need someone who can get out our vote -- as the dynamics of our elections may be such that the sides are already defined that much.