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The 6 Senate seats Democrats could maybe, possibly win from Republicans
The 6 Senate seats Democrats could maybe, possibly win from Republicans
The opportunities for Democrats to gain ground in the Senate, ranked from most to least likely.
By Dylan Scott@dylanlscottdylan.scott@vox.com May 2, 2018, 7:30am EDT
Democrats have a tall order in the 2018 Senate elections. They have to defend 10 seats in states that Donald Trump won — and on top of that, if they want to reclaim control of the Senate, they have precious few opportunities to take seats from Republicans.
At this point, Democrats need more or less a straight flush to win the Senate: They have to hold those 10 seats, some of which are in very hostile territory, and then pick off two states from Republicans. The two obvious candidates are Nevada, where Dean Heller is already in clear trouble, and Arizona, where Jeff Flake is retiring and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema already has a strong showing in the early polls.
After that, things would have to get weird for Democrats to make bigger gains in the campaign for the Senate. Some of the ingredients are there: They have a popular former governor, Phil Bredesen, running in Tennessee. Texas is the Democratic white whale and they have a young, charismatic candidate, Beto O’Rourke, to challenge Ted Cruz. Maybe Republicans will self-sabotage in the South again, if Chris McDaniel can top Cindy Hyde-Smith among Republicans.
All those seats are all very long shots. The degenerates who gamble on politics give Republicans the upper hand in keeping the Senate for a reason. But there is a path for Democrats to win the Senate. It starts with winning eight or nine or all 10 of those seats they’re defending — and then winning two or three or four of the Republican-held seats on this list here.
Nevada: Dean Heller is in big, big trouble
Who is the Republican? Dean Heller, who was elected to the Senate in 2010. Perhaps the biggest loser of the Obamacare repeal debate, after he stood beside extremely popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval and said he wouldn’t support any plan that Sandoval didn’t — and then, a few months later, did exactly that.
Who is the Democrat? Rep. Jacky Rosen. First elected to Congress in 2016.
How much do people love/hate Trump here? Heller holds the unfortunate-for-him distinction of being the only Senate Republican up for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton won. Plus, Nevada is a state with an increasingly active Latino- and labor-dominated Democratic base. Per Gallup (our source for the whole post), Trump is at 42 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval. According to Morning Consult, our other go-to source, Heller himself is looking at 37 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval.
Tell me the weird stuff. Seriously, Obamacare repeal was a debacle for Heller. First, he held a press conference with Sandoval and proudly declared that for his state, which had expanded Medicaid to cover tens of thousands of poor people, the governor’s opinion would be the deciding factor — and Sandoval did not support repeal. But then after some browbeating from Trump and some reports that outside GOP money would help out Heller if he went along with the party, the senator ended up voting for several different repeal plans. Truly a profile in courage.
This is in a state that voted for Clinton, 48 percent to 46 percent, over Trump. The road was already hard for Heller. He didn’t make it any easier on himself.
So do we know who’s going to win? The one poll we have put Heller up a single point over Rosen, his lesser-known challenger. Officially, from the Cook Political Report, it’s a toss-up. But Dean is in for a very long year.
Who is the Republican? Dean Heller, who was elected to the Senate in 2010. Perhaps the biggest loser of the Obamacare repeal debate, after he stood beside extremely popular Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval and said he wouldn’t support any plan that Sandoval didn’t — and then, a few months later, did exactly that.
Who is the Democrat? Rep. Jacky Rosen. First elected to Congress in 2016.
How much do people love/hate Trump here? Heller holds the unfortunate-for-him distinction of being the only Senate Republican up for reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton won. Plus, Nevada is a state with an increasingly active Latino- and labor-dominated Democratic base. Per Gallup (our source for the whole post), Trump is at 42 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval. According to Morning Consult, our other go-to source, Heller himself is looking at 37 percent approval and 40 percent disapproval.
Tell me the weird stuff. Seriously, Obamacare repeal was a debacle for Heller. First, he held a press conference with Sandoval and proudly declared that for his state, which had expanded Medicaid to cover tens of thousands of poor people, the governor’s opinion would be the deciding factor — and Sandoval did not support repeal. But then after some browbeating from Trump and some reports that outside GOP money would help out Heller if he went along with the party, the senator ended up voting for several different repeal plans. Truly a profile in courage.
This is in a state that voted for Clinton, 48 percent to 46 percent, over Trump. The road was already hard for Heller. He didn’t make it any easier on himself.
So do we know who’s going to win? The one poll we have put Heller up a single point over Rosen, his lesser-known challenger. Officially, from the Cook Political Report, it’s a toss-up. But Dean is in for a very long year.
more...
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/2/17303554/senate-elections-2018-midterms-democrats-beto-orourke-kyrsten-sinema-dean-heller-jacky-rosen
