Trumps Election Nightmare

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/04/25/trumps-election-nightmare/

Trump’s Election Nightmare
April 25, 2018 at 8:15 am EDT
By Taegan Goddard

Jonathan Swan: “Top Republicans have conceded for months that they’re likely lose the House in November’s midterms. But some well-wired operatives now tell Axios that President Trump may face his real nightmare: losing the Senate, giving Democrats both ends of the Capitol, and one-third of the government.”

“It’s not just that Democratic dominance at the Capitol would speed impeachment proceedings and trap the White House in a thicket of oversight probes and hearings. Twin losses would be a massive repudiation of Trump and his brand of Republicanism, just as he embarks on his reelection.”

Said a Republican lobbyist: “Everyone just universally assumed it would be status quo or Republicans would win a seat or two. And now it feels like Republicans are at a risk of losing one, which would be a 50-50 Senate or two, which would be a Democratic Senate.”

[tanyev]

1. May 2018 be the year Republicans learn they need to be careful what they wish for.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. We win three, they win one

My way too early predictions:
We flip Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
They flip Indiana.

We barely hold on to WVirg, Missouri, NDakota, Florida.
They barely hold on to Texas.
New Senate 51-49 Dem (with two Independents in Vermont & Maine caucusing with Dems).

[DrDan]

3. I am feeling uncomfortable about Florida - scott's ads have already started - a ton

of money will be spent on this one

[A HERETIC I AM]

4. Heres one of the problems with Florida that rarely gets mentioned

It is chock full of retirees from states up north that have state income taxes. Florida has the appeal of not having them (one of only 7 states that don’t) and as such, all those “blue hairs” as we affectionately call them, HATE the idea that someone might dare charge them more to live here

So...what did they do?

Elected a scumbag, barely escaped being a felon medical fraudster for governor and may just send him to DC.

There are plenty of progressive folk in this state but they don’t vote in the numbers the retirees do for obvious reasons - we work every day making their lives better

[Funtatlaguy]

5. Two things will help Nelson

A lot of Puerto Rican’s moved to Florida after going so long without power.
Many will register and vote Dem.
A lot of 17 year olds that turn 18 are upset about NRA GOP ties and will register and vote dem.

[DrDan]

7. scott is doing a lot to court the Puerto Ricans - I believe he is visiting PR again as we speak

he has waived some professional licensing requirements, provided a lot of housing for those who evacuated to Florida, etc.

Nelson did not look particularly strong last couple of times I saw him.

I know the PRs typically vote Dem, but I don't think their votes are guaranteed.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. When you say "strong" what do you mean?

Politically? Physically? He's held that seat for some time now I believe.

[DrDan]

10. physically - he is showing his age (75) - has been in Senate since 2001

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. Ok. Got.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. I'm on the fence about Indiana

So far, nearly all of Donnelly's would-be Republican opponents have issues, especially Rokita. Indiana is a pretty blood-red state, so Republicans have a built-in advantage, but Donnelly hasn't done anything AFAIK that has particularly angered anybody, he is the incumbent, and seems well-positioned to hold on to his seat IMHO.

[RockRaven]

6. There will be an ungodly amount of money

spent in GOP senate races by superPACs. The writing is on the wall that the House will probably be lost, so the Koch brother types will dump everything into the half-dozen or so Senate races which have the slightest chance of going either way. It is going to get very, very ugly.