The Stock Market Is Having its Worst Second Quarter Since the Great Depression

[LongTomH]

Fortune mag: The Stock Market Is Having its Worst Second Quarter Since the Great Depression:

If you feel like the second quarter has begun badly, you’d be right.

U.S. stocks are on track to have their worst April start since 1929, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 index slumped 2.4 percent as of 1:10 p.m. in New York, a rout exceeded only by its 2.5 percent decline 89 years ago, a prelude to the devastating crash later that year that brought on the Great Depression. (Back then, the index only comprised 90 stocks.)

China’s retaliatory trade tariffs combined with President Donald Trump’s criticism of Amazon.com Inc. to send equities into a tailspin Monday. Shares in the online retailer tumbled, encouraging a sell-off in consumer discretionary and technology stocks. The S&P 500 broke through its 200-day moving average — a key technical support — sending volatility higher.

The stock slide also looks pretty bad when compared to the beginning of other quarters. Equities are on pace to lose more than on any other quarterly first day since October 2011, when stocks plummeted 2.8 percent, Bloomberg data show.

I'm so old, I remember when people said: "Vote for a Republican and you'll get a depression; vote for a Democrat and you'll get a war"

Now you can vote for a Republican and get 'em both!!!!!

[unblock]

1. I remember "if you want to live like a republican, vote for a democrat!"

"... and if you want to live like a democrat, vote for a republican."

[appalachiablue]

9. Awesome, never heard this before.

[Hoyt]

2. Don't think you can really look at Stock Market on a short-term basis. Market is still up more than

I would have guessed when he was elected. Don't think he had a lot to do with that, but to hear him tell it . . . . . . .

But it has not been worth it and he's causing a lot of problems that don't bode well for our long-term future.

[S.E. TN Liberal]

4. The decline is very obvious if you look at what the stock market has done since...

...the republican'ts passed their budget.

[Hoyt]

5. I thinks it has more to do with potential trade war, inflation, higher treasury yields.

Of course, the budget and tax cut certainly impact potential inflation and yields.

Fact is, we had a strong run up that was probably exuberance, especially with this buffoon in office.

[A HERETIC I AM]

19. Out of curiosity, and Im not trying to be snarky here...

But can you explain the correlation with Treasury yields in your post, as you best understand it

What is the actual effect of higher “treasury yields”?

My question is not meant to suggest you do not know, rather to make clear to those that may not be aware just how significant that single point is.

[GusBob]

3. This article is 3 weeks old. What has happened since then?

I only saw today was a dig downer, but I seem to recall some up days last week

EDIT to add: it had creeped up during the month, but today's slide wiped out all of Aprils gains

[RainCaster]

6. This is called 'winning'

Get used to it, this is what we will get as long as the GOP remains in power.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. Stocks simply aren't down all that much.

What they're really doing is moving sidewise, up some days, down some days. Which, come to think of it, is basically what the market does.

And that 2.4 percent decline as of 1:10 pm? At the close the market was only down 1.74%.

Plus, as I understand it, markets move more on earnings than anything else, and earnings are expected to be up significantly this year.

I don't get all the doom and gloom I constantly see here about the stock market. Me? I'm staying in the market.

[ooky]

10. Its a flat trend since the first big drop.

Seems to be trying to reach correction and then comes back up when near or passes correction. That's been the trend for about 10 weeks running now. I think the doom and gloom comes from people getting spoiled from the meteoric rise it was in before it finally fell. For about a year it did nothing but rise.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

11. Right.

And if anything we are way overdue for a correction.

[Honeycombe8]

13. In all the fairness, the OP says "the quarter."

All I know is...I've lost thousands, a lot of thousands, of dollars in my IRA account.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

17. What is your percentage loss?

I do not expect you to answer that, since it is truly none of my business. But your mix of holdings matters, and if you're well diversified, in the long run you will do just fine.

But I do want to point out that if you have a very large amount of money in your account, a relatively small percentage drop can be several tens of thousands of dollars, just has a relatively small percentage drop in the Dow looks huge to many people because it's still several hundred dollars.

Yes, my investments are down from what they were when the Dow reached its recent peak back in January, but I'm not very concerned because I knew that high wasn't sustainable.

[Honeycombe8]

18. The Dow has lost about 2% in one month...

One month:

Dow down about 2%
S&P down about 1.79%
Nasdaq is up about .21%

That's what the OP was saying....big losses for the opening month in a new Quarter. You can argue that one month doesn't make a trend, but it's correct that the first month of the new quarter has been significantly down.

But consider that the market was already down from the quarter before.

Nasdaq down about 5.5% incl prior quarter
S&P down about 7% incl prior quarter
Dow down about 8% incl prior quarter

We are close to being in a correction. Not quite there. And prices are STILL too high for many stocks.

But all experts I've read think there will be a positive return for the year. But OUCH in the meantime.

For example, I have Apple stock. It's down quite a bit from highs. But I'm not worried. This is a good stock in the long run, and it's STILL too high to buy, from what I've read. Just a month ago, its price was lower. Investors overreact whenever Apple releases a new product. If consumers don't shoot purchases out of the water, investors punish the stock, even if sales are healthy or normal!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

20. Sounds like you have a good handle on what's going on.

I don't happen to own individual stocks, but when I did, in the somewhat distant past, I tended to pay too much attention to the ups and downs of the most volatile of them. I've actually been in the market some 40 years now, which means I've weathered several big pullbacks.

[Honeycombe8]

8. It's horrible! So I guess we're in a correction. nt

[madville]

12. Good buying opportunity

I've been investing since the 90's, been through the .com bust, the 2008/2009 bust, etc. How much is it up net the last two years? How much will it be up in 10 years?

You can't be in short term or for a year or sporadicly, it's a decades long strategy for the average investor. One could just as easily say it's one of the best two year periods in market history as they could say it's the worst quarter, the net gains all depend on the window you are viewing it from.

[Honeycombe8]

14. For some things. But many are STILL too high!

That's how sky high prices had gotten. And best to wait for it to hit bottom...many still have a ways to go before hitting bottom.

[Wednesdays]

16. Right.

January 21, 1930
"Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said that reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction." News dispatch from Washington

http://www.reliefmine.com/articles/economy/183-quotes-following-the-1929-stock-market-crash

[workinclasszero]

15. Republicans destroy and loot the economy then give the proceeds to the 1%

How many times do people have to see this before they wise up?

[Scurrilous]

21. K&R