GOP Strategist Predicts Loss of 40-50 House Seats

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/04/19/gop-strategist-predicts-loss-of-40-50-house-seats/

GOP Strategist Predicts Loss of 40-50 House Seats
April 19, 2018 at 7:26 am EDT
By Taegan Goddard

Alex Castellanos: “Thanks to a map that puts more Democratic than Republican seats at risk, our party will still cling to control of the Senate, but GOP House members lack insulation: They will crawl out from the smoking rubble of a 40- to 50-seat pounding to find they have lost their majority.”

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. Alex should not be so cocksure.

Democrats are looking pretty decent despite it all. Nevada, Tennessee, and Arizona could go Blue.

There is still work to do between now and November.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. Dont forget Texas and Mississippi.

The Dem Senate candidates there actually also have a decent shot as well.

Meanwhile, Dems biggest chances of losing incumbents are in Missouri, ND, WV, and Fla.

[hatrack]

6. If Blankenship wins the GOP primary (as seems increasingly possible) . . . .

We may well hold WV as well.

[Exotica]

9. IN is tough as well, maybe our worst chance overall, in my meaningless opinion

I have sorta good feelings about MO (if McCaskill would work harder to embrace the PoC base she needs to win) and ND, as it has strange voting patterns historically for the Senate, even if massively red overall, plus Heitkamp is a fighter. Indiana is going to be a tough row to hoe.

Mississippi? I have little faith in that one, unless the rethugs run Paedo Morre-level shite.

If I had to lay wager now (and putting a Blue Wave into play):


We flip:

NV (bye bye Heller!)

AZ (especially if the Repug isnt McSally, and almost 100% if it is the scum Arpaio who Sinema is running against, Kelli Ward would make it 80% plus we win) There also may be a special election to replace McCain. That is totally up in the air atm.

TN (Phil Bredesen is the perfect candidate to smack down the RWNJ Marsha Blackburn, although it will be close)


Near Miss

TX (If the wave is big enough this may flip, but the primary totals, which had a record Dem turnout and a down Rethug turnout, still leaves Beto half a million short of the rotter Cruz)


We Hold (I only list close races)


FL (Scott has been the weakest statewide FL Repug running over the last decade, he always trails the others in total votes, and Blue Wave carries Nelson over him)

MT Tester holds on, and we dodged a huge bullet when Ryan Zinke (Zinke was the at-large single House delegate for MT) was appointed Interior Sec, as he was leading Tester by 20 points plus in generic potential match-up polls. McTurtle had a fit when Trump picked Zinke. Rosendale is going to be his opponent, but the Wave keeps Tester in.

ME RW scum Lepage isn't running so 100% hold for Independent Angus King

MO McCaskill holds on, and once again she got lucky with a weak Rethug for an opponent, Josh Hawley has so far run a shit campaign

OH Brown holds on, he also dodged a huge bullet when Kasich declined to run (and Josh Mandel to a lesser extent)

PA Casey holds on,, in fact may win pretty big, again the Rethugs are running a shite candidate Lou Barletta

VA Kaine wins comfortably, Rethugs are very split, Trump is HATED in VA (60-65% disapproval, biggest of all the states I am listing here)

WI Baldwin (I love her) holds on, thanks to the Wave, but this one will be very close, Nicholson is going to get a shit tonne of outside Koch, etc money

WV Manchin holds on, especially if nut case felon Blankenship is the Rethug opponent, but super close if it is Evan Jenkins or Patrick Morrisey

We lose

IN I just cannot see Donnelly pulling this out, BUT atm, he is looking better, so maybe I will revise this. I need to see who his opponent will be, as the Repugs are all over the place. Indiana is the most rapidly changing to even more ruby red state out there, IMHO. The only good thing is just like MO, they put up shit psycho Rethug Sen. candidates (ND too, in the last Heitkamp race she lucked out with a corruption-charged opponent). WV, if Blankenship wins the R primary, is the same, along with Arpaio in AZ (I do not see him beating McSally).


If these predictions come true, we will take back the Senate (51-49)

still a lot of way to go, and with Trump, who knows what the state of the nation will be in November, if he goes supernova, then we may sweep all I listed, and if you add McCain replacement in, we could top out at 54-46 (TX, AZ number 2 flip and we hold IN).

I think, gut feel, in the House we pick up 45 to 55 seats. I will look into all after the primaries.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. Perhaps not.....

If Trump is not polling better than 50% in job approval, Republicans are in trouble. Alabama and Pennsylvania proved that correct.

The trade tariffs are causing problems for Republicans, as are the Tax Cuts.

[elocs]

2. In the end this will all depend upon the Left to get out and actually cast their ballots.

I can understand by a GOP strategist would predict a big Republican loss--anything that has a chance to make Democrats complacent and figure they are going to win anyways, so why would their vote be important?

[beachbum bob]

4. the building momentum is all on the democratic side and we must have a strategy and tactics

to retake our country. Some of the bigger points:

1. states that allow college students to vote in either their place of residence OR in the districts of their colleges. Massive voter registration drives on campus AND GOTV efforts in November

2. A coordinated voter registration drive in all high schools for 18yr voters

we could easily add several million new democratic voters to the pool.

establish the top 100 House and Senate seats that can be flipped and focus the time, money and effort in those districts and states. We could see many states rid themselves of countless republican congresspeople in doing this.

40-50 seats loss could be on the low side.

[crazycatlady]

13. College students have a choice in where they can vote

This was decided by the Supreme Court in the 70s.

I went to a county committee meeting last night, and the local BOE there is very active and has been in the high schools.

I'm working in a district that could flip.

[Vinca]

5. Let's hope for more.

[MrScorpio]

7. My, my, he's pretty optimistic

I was thinking somewhere around 70.

[beachbum bob]

8. sheer number of congressioanl elections decided by 10% or less places potential losses

close 70 if the democrats get out the vote

[Raster]

10. ELECT. NO. REPUBLICANS. - VOTE. EVERY. REPUBLICAN. OUT. OF. OFFICE.

[lpbk2713]

12. They'll have to use every dirty trick in their book.

And there are many.