Nate Silver: Cruz could lose.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

[Freelancer]

1. That would make me happy all over my body -nt

[yortsed snacilbuper]

2. Kick

[IluvPitties]

3. Go Beto!

[duforsure]

4. Cruz is really, really hated

And he voted for their tax scam bill that'll give the wealthiest people in this country billions, while taking health care away from millions more, and now they're working to destroy Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. Cruz will help them do this, Beto won't. That's why so many are turning on Cruz, he's supported corruption by trump and has done nothing to stop it. Cruz will lose , its caving in on him daily with trump talking and tweeting crazy lies and claims, and Cruz is also another serial liar like trump, and the people are fed up with liars, and crooks, and will vote them out of office. Every time trump says or does something stupid, which is most of the time, it's hurting people like Cruz. Vote them out!

[oberliner]

5. Nate Silver: Cruz has an 80 percent chance of winning

Would be another way to put it.

[mythology]

9. Considering the last time there was a Democratic Senator from Texas was 1993

Those odds are better than we've had in a while.

[RandySF]

10. Nate Silver would say that a 20% chance of winning is not negligible.

[oberliner]

11. Very true

It would definitely still be a major upset, though, if Cruz lost. Let's hope this happens! It would bode well for the "blue wave" that is hopefully about to be upon us.

[grantcart]

12. The other issue is that the GOP is going to have to spend resources tovwin

Spreading the field will make them weaker in other places, and they could still lose under the right conditions

[oberliner]

14. If Cruz loses, it will be part of a huge Democratic Party wave

Let's hope that is the case.

[Jim Lane]

15. Rich individuals more likely than party organs.

Cruz has made few friends in the Senate, even on the Republican side of the aisle. Also, Texas campaigns are expensive, so a dollar would go further elsewhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if the NRSC devoted very little money to Cruz's race.

OTOH, he presumably has a big fan club among millionaires and billionaires. That's where the spreading that you mention may come in.

[Raster]

6. Go Beto, GO!

The only thing that would please me more than Beto whipping the shit out of Cruz, could be tRumplethinskin* frogmarched out of the White House in 'cuffs.

[blogslut]

7. O'Rourke's state-wide Town Halls are paying off.

GOP candidates barely acknowledge the parts of the state that aren't Houston, San Antonio, Dallas or Austin. We'll see some ads about a month before an election and on a rare occasion a candidate will breeze through on their way to a fundraiser in one of the major cities.

Beto doesn't breeze through. He visits every little and medium town in a district. He eats at our restaurants. He visits our local highlights. He puts on his track shoes and runs in our parks. We rarely get this kind of attention, especially not from Cruz or Cornyn.

In my part of the state national Democratic candidates don't even buy airtime, which makes sense economically but not politically.

Go Beto!
https://betofortexas.com/

[beachbum bob]

8. incumbent under 50% vs a challenger who 50% of the voters don't know is BIG trouble

for Cruz.

Beto's numbers can only go up.

[grantcart]

13. Good point

[rgbecker]

17. Beto's numbers will go up when people get a chance to hear him.

Very impressive candidate. I can hear him all the way up here in Massachusetts.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Awful comparison between Texas and Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania was 33% self-identified conservatives and 27% liberals in the 2016 exit poll. That is lower than the national gap, which is 9%. Pennsylvania remains a friendly state, no matter the 2016 result.

Texas, on the other hand, was 44% self-identified conservatives to 20% liberals. That is the bottom line devastating reality. The state is too far away, despite some favorable aspects like fewer whites than Pennsylvania and more Hispanics.

I've seen Nate Silver make that mistake previously...too much faith in the short term polling when it conflicts with the basic conservative/liberal percentage. His odds on Trump winning Alaska in 2016 were absurdly low due to that factor.

Rachel Maddow also makes this mistake with regularity during election years.

It is not impossible for Cruz to lose but no chance I would take 4/1 at this stage. Nate is not a gambler if he thinks 4/1 is decent value, this far removed in essentially a future book. It would have to be 10/1 and preferably 15/1.

[radius777]

18. Hillary only lost TX by 9%

so it is not that far away from being a swing state, especially with the state becoming more diverse and urbanized .. recipes for Dem success.

As long as Beto does well and gets Dem constitutencies excited/turned out, that is a win in my book for Dems even if he ultimately loses.