I love all the optimism concerning 2018 midterms...

[busterbrown]

however there was a strong sense of optimism back in Nov 2016 as well!
Remember 538? Man i was pissed off at Nate Silver...

And this my friends is why I am even working harder this year to purge the rats...
I will never relax no matter what the polls tell us..Good News Can Be Dangerous!

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Be optimistic but ASSUME elections will be stolen

Kinda like "trust but verify"

[RandomAccess]

11. Exactly. Do whatever you can to get paper ballots, hand-counted

in full public view.

The nifty thing is -- that's also the perfect foil for Russian interference.

[YessirAtsaFact]

2. If I think we will win an by 1,000,000 votes I still vote

I’d rather win by 1,000,001!

[Heartstrings]

3. Yes! Stay aware, volunteer and hit the streets!

Personally, I'll never trust another poll ever again!

GOTV!

[dalton99a]

4. Complacency IS dangerous - GOTV.

Disregard the noise.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. I agree with not taking anything for granted after 2000/2004/2016

I feel encouraged knowing that so many Republicans are resigning/retiring and that so many Democratic candidates are running for their seats. I'm mainly concerned about the Senate and losing some Democratic seats like Donnelly's in Indiana (he is the ONLY Democratic state-wide office-holder left, sadly enough).

[Salviati]

6. Stay angry, stay engaged

And no matter what, VOTE!

(and by vote, I mean straight Democratic ticket, across the board.)

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Nate Silver was the one emphasizing caution in 2016

I have no idea how anyone can be pissed at him. At one point Silver went on a drunken twitter rant and tweeted that anyone who thinks it is a 99% race is a monumental idiot. Something like that. I forget his exact words. He scoffed at Sam Wang of Princeton and also at the Stanford professor and others who were using the nutcase 99% garbage.

Silver had Hillary's odds in the 65-70% range in the final days, which is not much of anything. As I emphasized at the time, that is the equivalent of a 4.5 to 5 point favorite in an NFL game. Nobody even sneezes when that type of favorite loses in football. But somehow in elections anything about 50% is locked in as what is going to happen...guaranteed.

Hillary was absolutely the favorite on election day. Trump's team expected to lose. Trump himself expected to lose. The result doesn't change the fact that Hillary was the rightful favorite.

Nate Silver changed his impression of the race after Comey. He didn't try to wave that off, as so many here did. I remember Silver writing that before James Comey jumped into the race he thought the final 10 days would be a boring lead up to another election in which the outcome was already known.

Here's a Silver article from the day before election day, where he examines the Comey impact including mention that Hillary's theoretical odds dropped from 81% to 65% after Comey jumped in. For reference, 81% is the equivalent of a 9.5 point football favorite. Comey shifted matters from Trump needing a major upset to merely a minor upset. But the media did an incompetent job of describing the changed dynamic.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-comey-hurt-clintons-chances/

[blake2012]

8. I think the poster was pissed at the time because 538 was giving Trump stronger chance

than many polls did.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Keep an eye on how independents view Trump

That is the key to 2018 and 2020, far beyond turnout.

Hillary never had a chance at the touted lopsided victory because independents were always in Trump's camp. They wanted change. Independents then turned sharply against Trump in spring 2017, and his approval rating dipped to its low point when independents had their most unfavorable view of him. Not exactly complicated.

A few weeks ago the Wall Street Journal ran a story indicating that Trump's rising approval rating was due to independents dropping from 61% with an unfavorable view of him in January, to 51% unfavorable in mid March. That was the most ominous indication I've seen. We can't win big in November if independents have only a slightly unfavorable view of Donald Trump.

Fortunately this latest wave of trouble should shift it back again. I have been awaiting the next wave of similar polling, with an eye exclusively on independents.

We aren't going to overwhelm the GOP via turnout in a midterm. As always, preference overwhelms turnout as the most vital variable. Give me independents and moderates favoring my side and you can spend all your time on suppression and turnout. Math wins.

[NewsCenter28]

10. Need to sound serious alarm bells-An OP would be accused as trolling

So I'll post here. Quinnipiac, highly respected, shows Trump surging in their poll and our 2018 midterm lead collapsing. We are in trouble and nothing is guaranteed!

[Garrett78]

14. Most independents are extremely partisan. They are anything but moderate.

https://www.thenation.com/article/what-everyone-gets-wrong-about-independent-voters/

In fact, according to an analysis of voting patterns conducted by Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt, those who identify as independents today are more stable in their support for one or the other party than were “strong partisans” back in the 1970s.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

12. I expect bots/trolls to create storms in DU

Opposing extreme views on second-tier issues will create chaos. And there will be opposing extreme views on which issues are second-tier and which are take-no-prisoner litmus issues. We will be at each others' throats.

And we won't know if the opinions are from organizations outside the U.S. and there will be debate on whether or not that matters.

In other words, an average election year.

[lamp_shade]

13. On a scale of 1 (pessimist) to 10 (optimist) - I'm a 4.5....

Remember 2000? I was an 8 or 9
Remember 2004? Same
2016? I was a 10
Never again. No blue waves or blue tsunamis for me.
Anything can happen and I will remain carefully cautious right up until election day.