Mueller and the FBI had the evidence on Cohen before the raids.

[kentuck]

Where did they get it?

Perhaps it was discovered in the recent warrants served against Paul Manafort? After all, he fought mighty hard to keep them from the documents in his storage locker.

But, this raid was not made in the hope that they would find something on Cohen. They already had it.

Mueller was not gambling that he might find something.

[Skraxx]

1. The whole shitshow has been under constant FISA surveillance for some time now

[onenote]

2. And how do you know this?

Seems highly unlikely.

[bettyellen]

5. For this type of warrant he had to have something compelling on him.

[onenote]

6. But not the material being sought

The US Attorney wouldn't ask for a subpoena to collect material the FBI already had and a judge wouldn't grant that subpoena.

[bettyellen]

7. Of course not. They have evidence that things occurred and are trying to confirm it w additional

info. That’s standard. But they had to show evidence that they had reason to believe crimes were committed - Cohen was hiding things, and a coverup was coming.

[onenote]

12. Thats much different than what the OP claimed.

[bettyellen]

14. Some evidence isnt not evidence. Once threg were looking for stronger evidence and proof if others

We’re involved- that goes without saying. Are you really splitting hairs between some evidence and “the” evidence? Because it’s usually a pile of evidence, so “the” is a little ridiculous to hang your hat on. This is in fact how you get to “the” evidence, if there is such a thing.

[unblock]

3. Different kinds of evidence.

It's one thing to have testimony about criminal activity, it's an entirely different thing to have documents like the books and records of criminal activity.

[MGKrebs]

4. Well it's pretty certain they had something.

But if they had everything they just would have charged him, I would think, take him into custody and then get the warrant. So they are looking for more than what they have.
I think what we can say is, they have something and they have good info that there was more to get.

[marylandblue]

8. My guess is that have documentation of fraud and money laundering

Going back to well before Trump became president. Accusations of shady business deals have followed him around for decades. If they found multiple paper trails leading to Michael Cohen, then that would be enough to get a warrant.

Where did the paper come from? Maybe Deutsche Bank. Mueller subpoenaed Deutsche Bank last year. The only major bank that would lend to Trump and a bank known to be involved in money laundering.

[grantcart]

9. On Cohen? Bank transactions

[Hekate]

10. Yes yes yes

[NCTraveler]

11. Some of it seems cut and dry.

NDA just before the election. Paid for by Cohen. Trump knows nothing about it.

For certain aspects of the warrant I would think that alone would be enough. It is public knowledge from the parties involved and clearly outlines an in-kind campaign contribution that was unreported.

I'm sure there is a lot more but that one aspect can be garnered from public knowledge alone, and is in the scope of the FBI. Where else was it not reported? Was he upfront when extending his mortgage or is that the bank fraud aspect?

[safeinOhio]

13. They wouldn't dare charge after he called them and said....

"I will make sure that you and I meet one day while we're in the courthouse. And I will take you for every penny you still don't have. And I will come after you and everybody else that you possibly know," Cohen said. "So I'm warning you, tread very fucking lightly, because what I'm going to do to you is going to be fucking disgusting. You understand me?"