How is the stock market up almost 400 points?

[Sanity Claws]

Yesterday, it sank like a rock after news of the warrant executed on Cohen came out. Now it is gaining strength.

Similar things happened over the last week or two following the tariff news.

Am I the only one who things this market is rigged? I don't know what is propping it up but the rollercoaster ride makes no sense.

[HAB911]

1. Xi blinking?

China's Xi announces plans to 'open' China, including lowering tariffs on imported autos

[highplainsdem]

5. That's what I'm hearing this morning, that the market's less worried about a trade war.

[ooky]

24. There are no imported cars into China. Or exported from China either.

Perhaps the "market" doesn't know.

[MineralMan]

2. The market does not follow any sort of logical rules.

It's impossible, really, to predict its reaction to any particular piece of news. Forces are at work that are not apparent at all times.

[Scruffy1]

23. Exactly

Having spent a little bit of time in the securities business I know how haerd it is for some people to believe the market is not rational. No one I ever worked with had ever made or knew anyone who made money by technical analysis, but you still see tons of drivel about it. I think currently that threr is just other place to put the money because interst rates are very low and money can't sit idle. JP Morgan said it best:"Stocks go up and stocks go down." I also think some of the big players like Mercer can manipulate the market somewhat, but you'll never find out what they are really doing. The main elements are fear and greed. Sometimes fear wins, sometimes greed.

[ProfessorGAC]

28. On Top Of That. . .

. . .400 points is only a little more than 1.5%. That's not really that much volatility.

I'm not surprised at all. It goes down, then different investors see it as an opportunity to buy in and it rebounds a bit.

No really logic or reason behind each point of movement. Some rebounds might be more predictable than others, but there certainly are no set of logical rules that can be applied.

[kentuck]

3. The possibility of war...

..and spending big bucks on bombs and such?

[DetlefK]

4. Calm down. The stock market is not governed by logic.

Two emotions govern it: greed for more money and fear of losing money.

If the stock-market is up, then it's because it dropped recently and people figured now is a good time to buy.

[Exotica]

6. Bonds on the other hand, look more clued in to a grim trade war.....................

[Sanity Claws]

16. Hmmmm

Something to think about.

[ck4829]

7. You want to know why? The stock market is a complete social fabrication.

It doesn't measure 'real' events, it's not a measurement of real things. It's not like if you throw a rock over a ledge, it will fall down and hit the ground because physics. The stock market is the complete opposite of this. It is under the full sway of imperfect and incomplete information, human perceptions, human anxieties, and even lies.

One could indeed say the market is 'rigged', but it's much deeper than that. The Dow is really not a reflection of the economy in the present or the future and it's not a reflection of the economy in general, how right something is. The problem is confirmation bias, the sooner we reject it as some sort of oracle, the better.

You might be interested in these pages that my allies and I are working outside of DU:
http://rw-infopedia.pbworks.com/w/page/117407481/Oracle%20of%20the%20Dow
https://twitter.com/hashtag/DowMeansNothing?src=hash

[Sanity Claws]

14. Good luck on your project

I don't have time to look at the pages now but will this evening.

[GusBob]

35. Have you read the book "Flash Boys" ?

For the life of me, dark pools sound as crooked as all get out

[Hoyt]

8. It was up 400 yesterday, then FBI raided Cohen's office and home. Who knows where they'll go next

or what stupid junk trump will say?

[Hamlette]

36. I doubt it has anything to do with Cohen. Or even Trump's legal troubles.

Stocks went up under Clinton, even when he was impeached. (They went down in anticipation of Starr's report but had regained the loss before the House voted to impeach.)

[Ilsa]

9. Maybe mega investors are hopeful about IQ45 going down. nt

[YessirAtsaFact]

10. The fundamentals of the economy are strong

So there is no real world reason for the market to drop yesterday, other than the news about search warrants.

And there’s no real world reason for it to be up today, other than the lack of catastrophic news.

Basically, the market always overreacts to news, good or bad.

[mythology]

11. Because the best time to buy is after a bad day

The relative economic numbers are good. Employment, corporate profits, still low interest rates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

-attributed to John Maynard Keynes

[Sanity Claws]

13. Haha

I never heard that one before. Now I'll never forget it.

[DBoon]

26. My favorite quote from Keynes

"In the long run we will all be dead"

[Sanity Claws]

34. That is the one quote I did know.

[oberliner]

15. Positive signals from China?

[GeorgeGist]

17. Because it's a casino.

[DBoon]

27. "a random walk down wall street"

A classic book of investment advice based on your very statement

[NCTraveler]

18. Obama left this country in an economically strong position. Nt

[NRaleighLiberal]

19. as my financial adviser says, the market has no heart and no soul

It just does what it does.

I do think that if anyone really looked, Trump is manipulating the markets with his tweets.

[Le Gaucher]

20. China is reducing auto tarriffs

[cilla4progress]

21. Trump will get credit

For this?

[Brother Buzz]

22. Deserved or not, the orange anus will TAKE credit for it

[nolabels]

29. More like if one house of cards fold the other ones will also

Mostly because they are interconnected in many places.

They also hooked up with the wrong guy that pulling on the wrong card also but what are they going to do anyway

[ooky]

25. No, you are not the only one who believes the market is rigged.

Since the first big fall over 2 months ago its been locked in this pattern.

[unblock]

30. China is playing donnie

Donnie wants a p.r. victory. He's too stupid to know the difference between that and an economic victory, and too sociopathic to care.

They know this because Donnie is the most obvious and terrible negotiator you could imagine. He puts his emotions and motivations right on the table. No poker face at all and easily manipulated.

So China will make a few token concessions that will have little impact in exchange for American concessions worth 3 times as much but Donnie won't ever mention those.


The market is up because xi played the first part of this plan. The market will tank when Donnie closes the deal with the American concessions.

[Loge23]

31. If you're in the market, watch interest rates

If you have holdings in the market and are getting tired of the volatility, then it may be time to move into cash.
Three (3) year rates are close to 3% now and will probably rise in the coming months.
It all comes down to knowing what stocks you have and understanding their business and financials.
Another big consideration is timing and where you are in life now.
It could be time to at least trim your market holdings to free up some cash and reduce, somewhat, your anxiety.
One thing is pretty much assured at this point: we can expect significant volatility as long as we have a lunatic in the WH.

[moondust]

32. Irrational exuberance. n/t

[C_U_L8R]

33. China knows Trump won't be around forever

[IronLionZion]

37. Volatility is here to stay as long as that asshole is in office

The psychology driving the ups and downs is completely insane and accelerated by algorithms written to predict the ups and downs. He says stuff to dip the markets, and his buddies buy low. They of course sell right before he publicly releases his stupid ideas to the rest of us. The people benefiting from this are much wealthier and the people being screwed by this are much older and less wealthy.

Retirees would do well to seek less risky investments until Trump is thrown out.