Rasmussen New Poll - Good News in Wisconsin

[demwing]

Not only does Ras have Obama up in the state, but it looks like Tammy Baldwin has broken through in the Senate race, and now leads all candidates, including GOP primary favorite Tommy Thompson. This is the first time Baldwin has lead Thompson, and the breakthrough is significant, with Baldwin clobbering Thompson by 7 % (48 / 41).


This strengthens the likelihood of Dems maintaining control of the Senate, and if the Ras says Baldwin is up 7%, you gotta wonder how badly she's actually beating the field.


The tide is turning, amigos.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_senate

[Booster]

1. Since I'm a Dem I would vote for Tammy anyway, but if I live in Wisconsin I would be

compelled to vote for her just because of her military status and what she gave up for this country. Come on, Wisconsin, do the right thing.

[undeterred]

2. Her military status??

This is Tammy Baldwin - she is an attorney who has been in the House for 10 years and not a veteran. If elected to the Senate she will be the first openly gay woman in the Senate.

[demwing]

5. You're probably thinking of House candidate Tammy Duckworth

running in Illinois against that fucker Joe Walsh.

[Booster]

9. Yes, I was. Sorry. I've got to quit speedreading before replying to a post. My bad.

[grantcart]

3. Similar results in Ohio by another right wing pollster

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125160887#post1

[demwing]

7. Thanks, don't want to get too optimistic

but it seems as if a shift is happening, and Americans are favoring forward progress over retroactive retirement.

[earthside]

26. And if the Dems don't change the filibuster rule ...

... maintaining a slim majority will all be kind of pointless anyway.

[cali]

4. I'm less sanguine about the Senate

I don't see Kerrey winning in Nebraska or McCaskill winning in Missouri.

[demwing]

6. McCaskill and Kerrey are not doing well

But our Senate chances are still solid.

RCP shows 47 likely or leaning Dem seats (including an Independent from Maine), and 8 tossups. Add Nelson in Florida, Warren in Mass, Kaine in Virginia, and Baldwin in Wisconsin and you've got 51. There's our majority.

Then look at the wildcard in Indiana where an unpopular teabagger won the R primary and opened a solid red seat to a VERY possible Dem victory, and a recent internal poll that has Heitkamp up in North Dakota, and we're holding our ground at 53 seats.

If Tester manages to keep his seat in Montana we may actually gain a seat.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html

[cali]

10. I don't think we can put either Warren or Kaine in the likely win column at

this time. Angus King probably will win in Maine and I'm hopeful about Tammy. I think it looks about 50/50 as to whether we'll hold the Senate.

[demwing]

13. Still in the Toss Up

Nelson in Florida, Warren in Mass, Kaine in Virginia, and Baldwin in Wisconsin

But in each of those states, the latest poll shows the Dem candidate leading, if only by a narrow margin.

Kaine is the only one I'm really worried about, especially considering the ramifications of having that asshat Allen in the Senate.

[Scuba]

8. I saw another poll that was totally depressing. It showed that ...

...100% of Wisconsin voting precincts use electronic voting / scanning machines. Don't relax.

[demwing]

11. hey Sunshine!

[Scuba]

12. Captain Buzzkill strikes again.

[lastlib]

14. Beautiful news!!

[Poiuyt]

15. That is good news. The teabagger candidate has been spending tons of money on TV ads

You can't get near a TV here in Wisconsin without seeing an Eric Hovde ad. The good news is that he's starting to sling mud at the other republicans.

[demwing]

19. That's what think is happening here

Thompson is getting nailed by Hovde, and Baldwin comes out the winner

[dragonlady]

23. Meanwhile Tammy has a very nice ad out

She explains how her grandparents raised her, instead of her teenage mom and the father she never met, and how she was proud to take care of her grandmother in her declining years. This speaks to the "Wisconsin nice" tradition, very similar to Minnesota nice, that I think many voters would like to get back to after all the drama in the last few years.

[Lifelong Protester]

16. Go, Tammy!!!

Thanks for the post.

[boomerbust]

17. Remember the recall?

8:00pm 50-50
8:30 pm Walker wins by 7

[demwing]

18. Yes I do, but I remember the weeks before

Walker was always ahead in every major poll.

[Motown_Johnny]

20. They sometimes do this early just to reverse the numbers later and claim "Momentum".

Don't buy into any of the (R) pollsters numbers.

[demwing]

21. Wow, some people cannot let even a little good news stand

without succumbing to the urge to pee on its pant leg.

Sorry Motown_Stormcrow, I choose to feel enlivened today.

[Motown_Johnny]

24. Fine, but when they swing the other way you need to respect that too.

Choosing to "crow" about these when they are good means you can't reject them when they are bad.

I choose to not trust Wormtongue sources, even when they tell me what I want to hear.




Edit to add: Thanks for casting me in the same light as Gandalf. I can think of very few compliments which would compare with that.

[demwing]

25. I'm fine with that

you play with the cards you are dealt.

BTW, even the most unreliable sources can tell the truth. Did you see this?:
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/07/17/obama-right-americans-cant-succeed-without-government/?intcmp=obinsite#ixzz21vUZDfL5

[Motown_Johnny]

27. The best lies are distortions of the truth. Of course they sometimes tell the truth

but relying on them to do so seems foolish.

[demwing]

28. Ok, I tried to be pragmatic with you

no disrespect, but go rain somewhere else

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. K&R