Based on numbers and percentages from MSNBC

[angrychair]

If that holds than Lamb wins by ~2000 votes by my math

[FakeNoose]

1. It's going to be really, really close

Go Conor, you can do this!

[dchill]

2. Not seeing it, but I hope you're right.

[angrychair]

5. I used steve kornackis numbers

And vote percentage breakdown for Lamb up to this point vs. the remaining votes uncounted

[dchill]

9. He just said that absentee ballots should go more than 50% for lamb.

So that's good.

[angrychair]

12. Yea, I think Im going to be a off

Now that we have some more hard numbers on actual absentee ballots outstanding

I’m thinking going to be about 1,000 in favor of Lamb

[Nevernose]

3. Right now its 600 votes

But we’ll see. Aren’t they still counting absentee ballots?

[angrychair]

6. Still counting three counties

Roughly 8000-9000 left to count plus absentee ballots

[bearsfootball516]

4. I hope youre right

But it’s being said the remaining votes in Allegheny slightly favor Saccone. It’s going to come down to the absentee votes, I think Saccone might have the most raw vote tonight. Then we have to count absentees to decide the winner.

[angrychair]

7. I took that into account

I was breaking 52% of Allegheny outstanding votes for Lamb (he has averaged 58%) and 43% of Washington and Westmoreland for Lamb (46% is his average so far for remaining counties)

[CabalPowered]

8. Isn't that recount territory?

[Orange Free State]

10. NO automatic recount in Pa

Except for statewide races. I thought that applied too, but it doesn’t.

[lindysalsagal]

11. Nope. No paper there. Bastards.

[angrychair]

13. The difference has to be greater than half a percent

To avoid a recount.