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A big tweet from the NYT's Nate Cohn (Original Post)
RandySF
Mar 2018
OP
mcar
(42,334 posts)1. Oh please, oh please!
renate
(13,776 posts)2. interesting that *this* prediction is turning out to be so accurate, yet
...the race is 50-50, which is not what was being predicted.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)3. House districts are very difficult to poll
That's why betting odds on them are seldom if ever offered. I've wagered on politics since 1992 and seen odds on House districts only a handful of times.
I'm concerned about the projection of 229,000 votes. CNN is showing only 206,000 in the tally right now. I was hoping far fewer votes would be outstanding, given the trend toward Saccone.
Spider Jerusalem
(21,786 posts)4. 50-50 is within the polling margin of error
you have to take that "+/-3% into account, not just the topline numbers.