Any rumors/gossip/word about turnout in PA 18? I can't wait 5 more hours to talk about it. nt

[LAS14]

[scheming daemons]

1. Higher than midterm, but lower than Presidential... that's the story locally.

I'm guessing turnout will be around 40-45%.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. what're you doin?

You got time to vote 3 or 4 more times! Get Tux off that couch and get back in line!

[scheming daemons]

10. Doesn't work that way. Democrats don't cheat.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

12. we are always accused of it

Must've been fleets of busloads of illegal aliens rolling through Alabama to get Jones elected. It's the only rational explanation.
*cough*

[hvn_nbr_2]

24. Busloads of illegal aliens

The funny thing about all these fleets of buses full of illegal aliens going to polling places is that nobody ever sees any of them. I guess George Soros rents all the invisible buses with invisible drivers on every election day.

[dameatball]

26. crap.....can an invisible bus go around or over a really big wall??

[moriah]

16. I thought that was taken care of by the bussed-in minorities!

Geez, are you telling me they didn't get that whole thing organized already and regular folks have to do it? Whst are my donations paying for anyway?

just for clarity

[laurieu]

29. That's my guess too.

More people than I usually see, but not as many as in a Presidential election. I thnk the higher the turnout, the better for Lamb.

[scheming daemons]

2. Keep in mind... Lamb does better in LOW turnout models, because it means GOP stayed home

[titaniumsalute]

3. Actually Monmouth polling says the opposite

A Monmouth poll released in mid-February, using the same model, found Saccone with a slight edge, 49 percent to 46 percent.

The poll suggests Lamb can win even if that Democratic surge falls short, however. In a more restrictive turnout model — designed to mirror a lower-turnout electorate that typically votes in midterm elections — Lamb has a slim, 2-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent. A higher-turnout scenario, more similar to a presidential election, produces a 7-point Lamb lead, 51 percent to 44 percent.

[NCTraveler]

4. Polling is showing the opposite.

The Monmouth high turnout model has Lamb up by six. Low turnout model has him up by two.

Edit to add details and link:

"Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year."

"Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. "

"A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. "

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/

[scheming daemons]

6. Ok, I read it wrong.

[NCTraveler]

7. You only needed to do one thing right today.

I wish I had the chance to join you. My Florida voter ID wouldn't be accepted, I'm sure.

[RandySF]

9. Republicans are also turning out

I heard a 40% projection for Westmorland County

[blue neen]

11. How do you know Republicans are turning out?

? Just curious.

[NCTraveler]

15. I don't see how that connection can be made.

With the information you have provided.

[RandySF]

18. Its a heavily Republican country

Allegheny (suburbs) is expected to come in 25-30%

[NCTraveler]

19. We are energized.

I think it can just as easily be answered as an upward tick of people voting for the Democrat. Not that Lamb will win the county.

[blue neen]

20. Democrats hold a registration edge in Westmoreland County.

It's about 47% to 42%.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. Watch https://twitter.com/nate_cohn. No hour-by-hour updates. Wait and see.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn

[getagrip_already]

22. this guy needs a translator.....

He is talking in toungues.

But he seems to be casting shade on lamb's chances. Hope he's wrong on that.

[LAS14]

25. Thaks for this. Although I wish I could understand his two most recent tweets. nt

[TeamPooka]

14. C'mon PA! nt

[beachbum bob]

17. DU obviously doesn't have much of a presence in PA-18

[ebbie15644]

21. I voted for Lamb and my dad voted for the puke

[PA Democrat]

23. I posted some raw figures from my precinct with historical comparisons here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210351200

[regnaD kciN]

27. I have no particular desire for turnout info...

I remember too many times (especially 2004) when we were buoyed by exit poll data showing our side dominating...then the results came in and we were devastated.

Frankly, this is a pro-Trump district, and I thoroughly expect the (R) to win -- followed by a tidal wave of media frenzy on how "President Trump has regained his swagger" and "it looks like the 'Blue Wave' is turning into a ripple."

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Your final paragraph is very likely

It's too bad a test at this stage is not in a more balanced district. This is heavy lifting, no matter the polls.

I still think there is plenty of Shy Tory reality in the heavily white areas like this one.

[LBM20]

30. Why do so many progressives think so negatively? Is it viral? Because it REALLY stinks!

[bluestarone]

31. I'm so nervous that i feel it's the 2016 election all over again!!!

Come on PA DEMOCRATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GusBob]

32. Ok ya, " I heard" Michael Tomasky who is from that area on the radio this am

He said it comes down to white union male voters, and the turnout in the "south hills" area, which is suburban