Statistical Dead Heat in PA 18th Congressional Special Election...

[DonViejo]

March 5, 2018
Media Contact: Nikolas Emack-Bazelais
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617-824-3491

Emerson College ePoll: Statistical Dead Heat in PA 18th Congressional Special Election.
Democrat Conor Lamb leads Republican Rick Saccone 48% to 45%, 10 days out from
election

A new Emerson College poll finds Pennsylvania’s 18th District Special Congressional election
with Conor Lamb at 48% and Republican Rick Saccone at 45%, 7% of likely voters are
undecided. The data was collected between March 1-3 and used an online and landline sample of
474 likely voters with a CI of +/- 4.8 percentage points. Full podcast listen here
http://bit.ly/2FiLxZG.

This election has garnered a lot of voting excitement with 56% saying they are very excited to vote, and 7% not excited at all. It’s voter excitement that might put Lamb over the top.

When asked about level of excitement among voters about the election, 63% of Lamb voters reported being very excited compared to 53% of Saccone voters. Lamb voters also are paying more attention to the race, with 47% reported paying a lot of attention, compared to 42% of Saccone voters.

Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a 33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion.

Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of
the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about 33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22% of the vote.

Trump won the district 58% to 39% in 2016, and Mitt Romney fared equally well in 2012 with 58% of the vote to 41% for President Obama. Trump currently has a 47% job approval in the district with 43% disapproving, despite 46% of the district being registered Democrat.

more
http://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ECP_PA18_3.5.18_PR.pdf

[MFM008]

1. Looked similar before the

Alabama vote. Expected to be so close even a win for GOP then the D pulled ahead.