Gallup no longer considers Texas a Republican state.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

[Cha]

1. Jeeze, what happened since

2016?! Loving this.. big surprise!!

TY, RSF!

[Gabi Hayes]

2. This

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWQsJybVoAAnBO-?format=jpg

[Cha]

4. Mahalo, Gabi

[Gabi Hayes]

6. he mea iki

I so fluent!

Dare we hope the wonderful, heroic children tip the scale

[Cha]

8. The Audacity of HOPE..

Yes We Dare!

Link to tweet

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=10265382

[Gothmog]

49. Trump was held to less than 10% margin in 2016

This is one of the lowest margins for a GOP candidate in Texas in a long while

[Cha]

80. Mahalo, Gothmog! Yay!

Go Texas!

[Gothmog]

81. Ha Ha-Brietbart is worried about Texas Democratic primary turnout

This makes me smile

Link to tweet

Brietbart is not a trustworthy source but it is nice to laugh at the angst being expressed about Democratic turnout by these idiots

[Cha]

83. Please make it so.. I think the Dems are

are Woke!

[NewJeffCT]

84. Yes

Texas was about the same margin as "swing state" Iowa and Georgia and Arizona about the same as "swing state" Ohio.

[Gothmog]

79. More The #BlueWave2018 is not just in Harris County but all over #Texas!

Link to tweet

[TexasTowelie]

3. A lot of that map is begging to go blue.

Of the statewide races in 2018 it looks like the Republican most likely to be kicked out is Ted Cruz. He doesn't poll well among Republicans and that last name doesn't help as a reminder of what happened in Florida.

[Cha]

5. That would be Just Desserts..

if cruz lost.. all the ways he's tried to hurt people and lied since he got in.

[Tatiana]

7. TX, FL, GA, NC and PA... we can win these.

We just need some organization, grass roots support and $$$.

[Wounded Bear]

44. Penn just took a huge step in the right direction...

with the new gerrymandering map.

[Gothmog]

53. I was at my county CEC meeting on Monday

CEC means county executive committee which is the meeting of all of the precinct chairs in the county. In 2016, we had maybe 30 or so attendees. On Monday there were over 120. There is a great deal of excitement on the ground. A new Tejano or Latino group was announced and the Texas Black Democrats are opening a new chapter in my county.

[grantcart]

9. Nor Arizona. Trump did not get a majority in AZ.

[BadgerMom]

10. K and R

Work, donate, vote. I promise to do all of those. But, for just a moment, YAY!

[Midnight Writer]

11. As long as Republicans control the leg, courts, districting and election process, I won't hold my br

[Gabi Hayes]

12. At least we have the comsymplibmedia behind us!

[Hortensis]

36. Vote Democrat. Forget holding breath.

[TheFrenchRazor]

88. this, unfortunately. nt

[SergeStorms]

13. Pennsylvania.....

This map was almost certainly made before the Pennsylvania Supreme Court re-drew the heavily gerrymandered Republican districts. I think it's safe to say that it now leans Democratic, bordering on solid Democratic. Just the way is used to be, until people like Rick Santorum came along and started cheating like a mofo.

[vercetti2021]

14. We will take over Texas

Once we turn it from red to purple to blue. Bye bye any chance of the GOP winning the presidency again.

We are working hard down here to flip this state once and for all. Be great to see all of the southeastern area blue. Stretch it from Washington state all the way to Texas. Flip Arizona to blue. We got a southern blue wave going.

[Trueblue Texan]

27. I am with you!

[vercetti2021]

28. Awesome

Much love from the Texas Panhandle dear!

[Dem_4_Life]

32. Yes we will!!!

[FBaggins]

15. It isnt a development at all

Texas was grey on this map in 2016 as well.

The. Real developments are shifts away from red in VA/OH and the states surrounding IL

[Hortensis]

38. A "black, Muslim, foreigner" Democrat lost TX by 16 points in 2012,

an "evil, corrupt, white female, ambitious, murdering witch" lost it by 9 points in 2016.

I have no idea what sex or background our 2020 candidate will be, but assuming a generic personable white Christian male couldn't do wonderfully better in 2020 would not be smart.

Heck, these days I wouldn't bet against a candidate like Kamala Harris either.

[duforsure]

16. Texas is turning

Fed up with Abbott, Cruz and others, they realize now they'll destroy their health care, and Social Security. Seniors will not stand for anyone doing that, anywhere. Cruz and Cornyn just like the tax scam will vote for all social programs to be cut and destroyed. Texas House members of the GOP should be worried too as more learn they'll vote against these programs, and will cause many to run from supporting these people again. Cruz is hated even by the gop in Congress, and hope he would leave.

[DFW]

18. Matt Angle, Aimee Boone, etc. have been working for decades at this.

It is finally paying off.

As a contrast, about 15 years ago, I was at an event of the TX Democratic Party where Jim Carville was speaking, and he said when he was asked to speak before the Texas Democratic Party, he assumed the thing would be small enough to be held in a phone booth.

[LeftInTX]

47. There is an improvement

I'm on the ballot for precinct chair! I was recruited. We thought there wasn't a precinct chair, so I filled out the forms. It turned out that there was. But, I'm on the ballot. Two is better than one!!

We certainly aren't as organized the Republicans in Bexar County, but I'm glad to hear that we are doing better.

The TDP has been holding training sessions for local parties. Also our local party is actively holding precinct chair training and recruitment.

[DFW]

59. You might met either Matt or Aimee at some point, then

Tell them their friendly Texas Democrat in Germany said Hi! I promise you they'll know who you mean!

[oberliner]

17. Every one of those states listed as "toss up" went to Trump

Except Nevada.

[DFW]

19. The wheels of change turn slowly.

The important thing is that they not stop turning.

[oberliner]

20. Or maybe there was something more nefarious in all those toss-ups going Trump's way

As in - some "funny business" being involved.

[DFW]

42. I have no doubt that there was plenty of that

Our task is to GOTV to such an extent that they have no chance to manipulate the figures credibly (e.g. 2008). Otherwise, they will do it again and again and again. It's not like there is any believable evidence that the country as a whole does better under Republican administrations. They HAVE to cheat on order to win. Maybe not for Senator from Oklahoma, but definitely for Senator from Wisconsin, Florida, or Governor of Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida (always Florida).

[uponit7771]

23. Yep and all the states where HRC was up 2 - 3% that went Red Don were Voter Suppression

... states.

At some time America has to come to grips the ReThuglican party is a problem and factor that in

[Pope George Ringo II]

52. Don't overlook fatigue

Putting aside those of us who follow politics and have real ideologies, a depressing percentage of Americans are just a bunch of flakes who get bored and want to mix things up every few years.

[MountCleaners]

70. True

I think it's how we got such a shitty governor in Illinois. If Twitler keeps running his mouth, some people will get sick of the overexposure.

[xmas74]

21. Missouri went from solid to leans.

There's room to fight but we really need the help.

[LiberalFighter]

22. Indiana? Right. Sure. When?

[vercetti2021]

24. Didn't it flip to blue in 08?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

46. Yes

Pretty sure the Republicans here will make sure it doesn't happen again. We quickly went back to Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016. And don't forget that we elected Mike Pence Governor in 2012. We had a run of Democratic Governors in the 1990's (Bayh/O'Bannon) but Republicans have had an iron death grip on this state since 2005. I believe that Senator Joe Donnelly is literally the ONLY statewide elected Democrat left and we have a (very) small number of Democratic Congresspersons. There are some Blue bastions in the state like Indianapolis (where I live) but the super-majority Republicans at the Statehouse keep trying to find ways to mess around with us.

[LiberalFighter]

77. Only for Obama. Then 2012 back to red.

[tblue37]

25. K&R for visibility. Register voters and GOTV. nt

[Trueblue Texan]

26. Woooooo HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I've been tellin' folks for YEARS there were a lot more libs in Texas than the media gave credit for! There are also a whole LOT of folks who are liberal and don't realize it! My dance teacher (in this EXTREMELY conservative town) told me, "You say you're a liberal, but you're not crazy. You have a lot of common sense." Well, DUH! Stop listening to Fox news and you might figure out they are mis-characterizing a lot more than just liberals!

[Johnny2X2X]

29. Is Texas Jerrymandered?

Might not be since Republicans have had control for so long they’ve probably just assumed they could keep without cheating.

[Dem_4_Life]

34. Oh yes very much so...

Texas would have been blue a LONG time ago if it wasn't for the gerrymandering. Take a look at Austin's districts. There are 6 congressional districts that run through Austin.

[link:|

[Pope George Ringo II]

54. True as far as it goes

But that still leaves us explaining how a blue state went for Trump, Cornyn, Cruz, etc. At some point it becomes more likely that the state actually is red. For now.

[Javaman]

35. Heavily gerrymandered.

thanks to cement head rick perry and his illegal redefining of the districts.

I live in Austin.

[Ilsa]

37. Yes. For example, the conservative counties

of Victoria, Lavaca, DeWitt, etc, are tied with a democratic Nueces County, which is Corpus Christi and heavily Hispanic. Yet their representative is douchebag Farenthold. Part of the district around Austin includes a narrow section that snakes down to San Antonio, no doubt to lump as many Democrats together in a district that would obviously vote Democratic. It has some messy, gerrymandered sections.

[dalton99a]

40. And this gem:

[DavidDvorkin]

48. Wow

That's a lot of Democratic voters.

[uponit7771]

60. To the nth degree

[beachbum bob]

30. unless democratic voters in all the competitive states get off their asses and vote

it doesn't matter what gallop says. The real issue is having a voter base who reflects their anger at all things trump and all things republican come election time and get out and vote. We need to take back the state legislatures and governorships.

[X_Digger]

31. Now, stop sending my TX donations to other states.

One of the reasons I stopped donating to the DNC was because my donations were pissed away in 'batleground states' rather than here at home. Since that time, I've been giving to individual TX candidates.

[crazycatlady]

33. Great!

Now I hope that last week's events inspire every high school senior in this country (who turns 18 before November) to register to vote and show up at the polls. I know the FL kids will.

[Corgigal]

39. South Carolina

Isn't really deep red. It takes longer and longer to call that state. I just moved from there a year ago, it's purple. Won't be ten tears until blue.

[Gothmog]

41. Texas will turn blue one day and when that happens the GOP will have no chance to elect POTUS

There are a large number of good Democrats on the ground working to turn Texas blue

[uponit7771]

61. +1, all the voter suppression is to stop what's going to happen in Texas. I knew

... this state wasn't deep red when I saw that over 50% of my neighbors were from coastal states.

Radio adds where I'm at are making sure to say democrat and "life long democrat" because they know the KGOP is going to get mud stomped come November

[Gothmog]

64. Turnout was down 2014 compared to 2010 due to voter id

Democrats sued and the voter id law is gutted to a significant degree. Now one can vote with any form of ID so long as they sign an affidavit and did not have an approved form. In 2016 Harris County had a 200+ poll watchers out to fight GOP attempts to suppress the vote and Harris County turned solidly blue.

Gerrymandering is still in effect in Texas due the SCOTUS block the ruling of the three judge panel. I am hopeful that the rulings in the Wisconsin and Maryland cases will help for the next cycle.

[D_Master81]

43. Indiana is considered NOT heavily RED?

We have a Repub Gov, 1 senator i think about 9 of the 11 house members and the state house is all super majorities for the GOP. 1 chamber i think is 71-29 GOP. If thats a tossup this whole study is off. I know Obama won in '08 but other than that the Dems have won 1 statewide election in 8 years, Donnelly who ran against Murdoch (who said rape was God's will).

[LAS14]

45. I was surprised to see that KY is also not Republican. How long has that been true? nt

[Gothmog]

50. It is still early but this is encouraging

I am seeing reports of higher Democratic turnout in the primaries across the state

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

51. Here are some more early voting numbers for Texas

Normally, GOP voters out do the Democrats in early vote

Link to tweet

[LonePirate]

56. Seats will flip from red to blue if that trend continues.

[Gothmog]

57. I hope that you are correct

[LAS14]

65. These are the kind of statistics I like!!! nt

[Gothmog]

67. It is still early in the early voting period

[Gothmog]

55. Democratic turnout in Harris County is way up

Link to tweet

[uponit7771]

62. +1 and this is for off year primaries

[Gothmog]

68. You need to compare these numbers to 2014

[Farmer-Rick]

58. Well, if they aren't a RepubliCON state, what are they? A Russian state?

Just kidding.

I see my state is still red as blood, there are a bunch crazy people here. The day after the school massacre in Florida, my neighbor's 16 yr old boy was target shooting. But the problem was, the target was on my property where I pasture my sheep.

No dead sheep....yet.

[LostOne4Ever]

63. Texas is a republican state and will remain a republican state for the foreseeable future

As a person who was born in, raised in, and still lives in Texas let me make this clear:

Texas is blood red and will remain so. It was a far right wing state when it joined the union over 100 years ago, and it will remain so for the foreseeable future.

Please please please stop selling this false hope to the desperate. I fell for it with Wendy Davis, and I won’t fall for it again. Had Texas been turning Blue as everyone he claims she would have given Abbot a close race.

Instead she got blown out of the water in such an way that I still hurt remembering it.

Texas is my home. There is zero sign that it is turning blue where I live (the heavily Hispanic 23rd district). If anything people are getting MORE CONSERVATIVE not less.

[vercetti2021]

69. Way to be positive

So just give up and roll over and die then? No...fight to turn it blue. The tide is turning. Just don't give up hope.

[LostOne4Ever]

71. Being realistic is not giving up.

Giving people false hope, on the other hand, is just cruel.

[vercetti2021]

72. I don't have false hope

I have hope. But realistically yeah its red, but it isn't getting more conservative. 300% up for dems in early voting. That's highly usual. I have hope along with many other Texans

[LostOne4Ever]

73. I will have hope once a dem comes close to winning a statewide election

But I don't see that happening anytime soon. Early voting is meaningless if we ultimately get less votes.

Abbot is going to win. Patrick is going to win. Cruz is going to win. Cornin is going to win.

and so on...

What I am planning to work on is getting my district to flip back to blue. That is a realistic goal. I will work on pie in the sky goals after that.

[vercetti2021]

74. Well I can't flip this district

The panhandle is very red. So I'll work on statewide

[LostOne4Ever]

75. Good Luck! nt

[vercetti2021]

76. You as well

[Gothmog]

82. The Texas GOP is relying on voter suppression tactics that are not working

The demographic trends are in favor of the Democratic party. Older GOP voters are dying off and are being replaced by younger voters who do not support the GOP. The projections that I have seen show that Texas will be blue by 2022.

The Texas GOP knows these trends and are trying to rely on gerrymandering and voter suppression. Congressman Marc Veasey sued and the Texas voter id law was largely gutted. The Texas gerrymandering case will be argued before the SCOTUS and the Wisconsin partisan gerrymandering case was argued back in October or November. The GOP will not be able to maintain control over Texas forever.

[Gothmog]

66. Democrats set early voting records at start of Texas primaries

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

78. Update on Texas turnout

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

85. A trump endorsement may be the kiss of death for Texas GOP candidates

Link to tweet

[Awsi Dooger]

86. I don't fully buy into this

Arizona is the next state on the flip agenda. That state has already produced competitive statewide races despite not a full push, and an exit poll revealing 27% self-identified liberals.

I can guarantee Texas would not have 27% liberals or anything close to that. Probably more like 21 or 22%, if that.

The number of self-identified conservatives in Texas would almost certainly be 40% or above. That's the dividing line for currently out of reach. I always have to laugh when Rachel Maddow or other gullible types tout flimsy state polls in states that always feature 40+% self-identified conservatives. They have never studied the numbers or the trends so anything sounds cute and possible to them.

Of course, the state has been off the table in terms of exit polls so I am mostly estimating. In the near future I'm sure there will be statewide exit polls in the state as it moves closer to level. Recently the only thing we've had from Texas is primary exit polls.

The problem in Texas is participation. The raw numbers of likely Democratic leaning blocks are sufficient, but they aren't registered and don't turn out dependably even if they are registered. Whites and older higher income Texans dominate the ballot box while blacks, Hispanics and naturalized citizens have been badly lagging their true numbers.

We needed to be pushing registration everywhere while Trump's approval rating was lowest. I managed to register three young people here in Miami, one I met at the golf course and two who did work on my home. They expressed anti-Trump sentiment but when I asked if they were registered they said no. I helped them get registered and I'm confident they will follow through.

[Gothmog]

87. Today's updated turnout numbers

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

89. This is very interesting

Link to tweet