http://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-local/2018/02/15/rick-saccone-conor-lamb-special-election-district-18-congress-pennsylvania/stories/201802150135
With just under a month to go before the March 13 special election, the race between Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District is far closer than expected, according to a new poll from Monmouth University. But it’s unclear how much more room Mr. Lamb has to grow.
Mr. Saccone holds a lead over Mr. Lamb, with a margin that varies depending on which turnout model pollsters use. Assuming that partisan turnout is consistent with that of other special elections in the past year, Mr. Saccone’s advantage is 49 to 46 percent. A lower-turnout model, one that assumes voters turn out in the same proportions as the 2014 midterm elections, gives Mr. Saccone a 5-point edge of 50 to 45 percent. Both those results are within the poll’s 5.5 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.
“Saccone has a slight edge, but it’s nowhere near the double digit advantage Republicans typically enjoy in this district,” said Patrick Murray, who directs Monmouth University’s Polling Institute, in a statement. “The potential for a Democratic surge like we have seen in other special elections helps Lamb stay in the hunt but it does not close the gap entirely.”
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