WaPost Analysis: Trumps new problem: Theres growing talk of a downturn in 2019

[riversedge]

Except for the very well off--we will all suffer more. damn


Washington Post?Verified account @washingtonpost

Analysis: Trump’s new problem: There’s growing talk of a downturn in 2019

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Analysis
Trump’s new problem: There’s growing talk of a downturn in 2019


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/13/trumps-new-problem-theres-growing-talk-of-a-downturn-in-2019/?utm_term=.e02c12772d70


By Heather Long February 13 at 6:30 AM Email the author
1:22
Trump's spending proposal backtracks on his 'balance the budget' campaign cry

The White House's spending priorities for 2018 renege on President Trump's promises to lower the deficit and keep Medicare and Medicaid spending without cuts. (Video: Jenny Starrs/Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

President Trump is beginning his second year in office with a high-risk strategy: Juicing the U.S. economy at a time when it already looks pretty healthy. As his latest budget, released Monday, makes clear, Trump wants growth of 3 percent — or more — a year for the next seven years, a feat that hasn’t happened since Ronald Reagan was president in the 1980s.

Most economists say Trump’s economic dream is virtually impossible. The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, for example, doesn't predict growth will hit 3 percent at all in Trump's first term. The United States is in a different place today than it was three decades ago, many say. The population is much older now, making it more difficult to sustain higher growth, especially without additional immigration or some sort of technological revolution that would make American workers the most productive they have been since the 1960s.

But Trump doesn’t like being told no. He’s made a career out of defying the odds, and his “Trumponomics” recipe of cutting taxes and hiking spending is meant to spur so much additional business investment that productivity can hit record levels. In theory, that would then boost growth and wages further.



His budget predicts the longest expansion in U.S. history, with moderate inflation and unemployment falling to 3.7 percent in 2019, the lowest level since 1969. Some economists, however, say the more likely result is growth picks up for a year or so and then a downturn hits. By then, the U.S. government would be even deeper in debt with less money to spend to revive the economy.

“This is a joke,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget...............................

[Iliyah]

1. Oh come on, hell most sane people knew this before

the tax scam vote. Hell, t-rump and the GOPs are running the USA into the ground, which started 1/21/2017.

[unblock]

2. the sick thing is, *this* is the sort of thing that might actually get him impeached and removed.

actual high crimes and misdemeanors are nothing.

but ruin the party for the rich people, that's something we really can't have, now, can we.

[Historic NY]

3. Inflation reports out tomorrow.......

[Historic NY]

4. US economy is an 'accident waiting to happen,' says Yale economist Stephen Roach

[link:https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/us-economy-is-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-says-yale-economist-stephen-roach.html|]