Why War with N. Korea is very unlikely.

[Stuart G]

Last edited Wed Feb 7, 2018, 01:20 PM - Edit history (6)

Please hit this link, it is a map of Southern Asia. There are two major countries that border North Korea to the north and northeast, and have enormous power in today's modern world. The two countries in question, are China and Russia. Yes, Russia has a very small border with North Korea. Look for the Russian city of Vladivostok. It is about 75 miles from the North Korean border

It is in these 2 countries own self interest to prevent war between North Korea and the United States. It is that simple. It is not complicated. Today is 2018, not 1949. It is my opinion that the leaders of Russia and China will do everything to prevent a war between the U.S and their neighbor North Korea. Why? Who would want a war that close to your country? Russia and China border North Korea. Take a look. If you were a leader of either of these counties, wouldn't you do everything possible to prevent such an event? Sure there is "bluster" and "talk." Some leaders of countries "bluster and talk." But that is not war. It is in the self interest of Russia and China to prevent a war between the United States and North Korea.


http://www.maps-world.net/southern-asia.htm

[zipplewrath]

1. Assuming rational thought

You're making a rational argument, but it isn't clear that rationality rules at the moment, on either side of this dispute. What you point out is the very reason this situation is so dangerous. Any mildly irrational act could initiate a series of actions which could force various countries to attempt to "stop" a conflict by means that may only serve to escalate it. WWI served no one, and yet it was started by the act of a single person/action and spun out of control due to existing fears and disputes.

[atreides1]

2. Really?

And what do you expect Russia and China to do, if Trump goes ahead with his "Bloody Nose" attack on North Korea? The reality is that neither of those countries can prevent Trump from launching a preemptive attack...and neither country will step in when North Korea retaliates!

If the US escalates and attempts to cross the DMZ, then the Chinese will come in on the side of the North Koreans, in much the same way they did in 1950.

It isn't up to either country to prevent a war, that responsibility lies completely in the laps of the United States!!!

[Stuart G]

3. China and Russia have very strong economic ties to North Korea.

North Korea is not an economic powerhouse. It is a poor country. Its leader spends a HUGE....!!! amount of money on army and equipment....China and Russia help support the economy of North Korea. Therefore, those two could have strong influence on North Korean's leader to prevent war..

Yes, North Korea's leader talks that way. But..and this is very important...veterans in North Korea, China and Russia, who have fought in war will do everything to prevent such an event. And everything is everything.

Some statistics about the Korean War...from CNN
_____________________________________________________________________________________
The US sent about 90% of the troops that were sent to aid South Korea.

The first war with battles between jet aircraft.

The US spent around $67 billion on the war.


US Troops Statistics:
Source: Dept. of Defense
US Deaths:
Hostile: 33,739
Non-Hostile: 2,835
Total In-Theatre: 36,574
US Wounded in Action - 103,284

Other Casualties by Country (killed and missing):
Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
South Korea - (217,000 military, 1,000,000 civilian)
North Korea - (406,000 military, 600,000 civilian)
China - (600,000 military)

[bluestarone]

7. my opinion China WILL hold true to it's word IF WE strike first.

It would't surprise me if China, Russia already discussed this? Maybe there would be a small reaction at first. (depending on just type preemptive strike we did) This has possibilities of many many deaths, and out of control WAR!! Crazy to take such a chance in my view!

[Stuart G]

8. If the Trump orders a strike, for no apparant reason..it is a sign of insanity.

Then we will see what happens. The orders might not be carried out. The staff might resign. Far worse than the .."Saturday Night Massacre".. under Nixon...Also, Putin would use his influence to stop Trump. But we can hope this never happens. I don't think it will. That is the reason for the original post.

[bluestarone]

9. gotta wonder anymore if they would or would not carry them out!

Day by Day i lose faith in relying on his staff denying his orders! I certainly hope we never have to find out what they would do!!

[Nitram]

4. The problem is that Trump has the power to order a unilateral attack, and he might do so if

it looks like he's going to be indicted or impeached.

[Stuart G]

5. Maybe, an order, and everyone involved in the White House will try to prevent it.

Some generals and military leaders might resign instead of carrying out such an order. It is unwise and insane. This is not a wall with Mexico. North Korea is a country that is 6000 miles away from us. Also, it is clearly not in our interest to have a war. And almost everyone in this country knows it. Russian and Chinese leader who have some influence on Trump will do everything possible to stop him, as will our own leaders and allies.

[Nitram]

6. You may be right. I hope so.

[dembotoz]

10. trump has lived pretty much by the principle of what can he get away with

not what is right, not what is wrong, but what can he and his lawyers get away with.

i almost wonder if not getting invited to the royal wedding would be a sign to him to walk more softly
can not make deals if no one returns your calls