Please DENOUNCE any polls brought to DU that are NOT from reliable

[Eliot Rosewater]

sources or pollsters.

I think I saw one here over the weekend saying the "blue wave" is in doubt now, so as a trusting liberal I got worried, depressed (sadly knowing how easy it is to talk Americans into doing something stupid) and then I think one of us/you pointed out the poll was RASMUSSEN.

Now I am not sure if that was the case, I am not going to go look for it.

If you want to win an election one way is to LIE about leading in that election so as to convince the other side there is no point in voting and your side to vote to make sure you win, etc.

ANY polls or nonsense like that brought here to DU whether the one I am remember was or not, PLEASE people, SMASH it down with vengeance!

Thank you.

This next election is about whether or not the nation survives and possibly YOU too!

[Wounded Bear]

1. Meh, ignore them and let them drop...

In a "don't feed trolls" manner.

[redstatebluegirl]

2. We should not pay attention to ANY polls!

Get your butts out there and work for Democratic candidates and GOTV! VOTE PLEASE! Democrats paid attention to the polls in 2016 and look what it got us. A bunch of Dems stayed home and we got 45! Do not read polls!

[Eliot Rosewater]

3. I like that even better. Thanks.

[Hortensis]

20. Poison polls is a classic trolling technique, tho.

Ignoring and letting drop is best, but sadly, the more outrageous and frightening, the more commentary they tend to generate.

Also sadly, major media often knowingly use sensationally bad polls as excuses to create fake drama and controversy, so appearance in "mainstream" sources in itself means nothing.

I suggest when ignoring won't work challenging strongly, and even considering whether a poll should be alerted on. Most of us have seen so many by now that we know when to suspect then. But trying to think of, like, when polls reflecting badly on Democrats are

1. Outliers, contradicting the body of respected polls.
2. Explained to be biased and unreliable by experts.
3. Dismissed as invalid, not listed, not accepted for averaging by even one poll aggregator.
4. Shown to come from or be pushed by hostile sources.
5. Not published by known reliable pollsters, i.e., obscure sources.

There are no doubt other signs too, but poll that meets even one of them is very likely to be confirmed by others. We had a blizzard of them in 2016.

Note that outlier polls used in those UCLA analyses that predicted Trump's win and contradicted almost all others would not meet these criteria. They were seriously discussed by experts, who didn't know what to make of them but did not dismiss the source.

[ismnotwasm]

21. Excellent post

Thank you!

[BSdetect]

4. Kellyanne Conway owns some polling company. Enough said.

[highplainsdem]

5. Better idea: Find out about the poll's source and whether it's an outlier.

And don't overreact to polls.

[Wellstone ruled]

6. Agian the truth is spoken.

What is the source and Methods used. Are they recycling the same call lists.

[asiliveandbreathe]

7. AAAHHH - very good ER -finally someone steps up -

You make the case for "feet on the street", and in our "National Interest" and "survival" - we don't need polls.. - we need votes...

[SWBTATTReg]

8. I don't need a damn poll to tell me ...

what's wrong w/ this idiot and his cohorts, and tell me how to vote. Right is right, and the truth shall set us free! GOTV!

[4139]

9. Rasmussen was right on the money in 2016, Hillary by 2%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Just sayin’

[Eliot Rosewater]

10. They predicted Hillary would win by 3 million votes?

[4139]

11. Hillary won by 2.1%, Rasmussen was off by 0.1%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

[Eliot Rosewater]

12. They have a clear bias, it is well known

You dont know that?

In 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times’ blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article "Is Rasmussen Reports biased?", in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias.[79] However, later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect."[80] He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model,[81] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering.[82]

After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.[71] Conservative polling analyst Neil Stevens wrote, "after the primaries [Silver] said Rasmussen was in his crosshairs for ducking out on a number of races by not polling primaries."[83] FiveThirtyEight currently rates Rasmussen Reports with a C+ grade and notes a simple average error of 5.3 percent across 657 polls analyzed.[84]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports

A 2017 article by Chris Cillizza for CNN raised doubts about Rasmussen's accuracy, drawing attention specifically to potential sampling biases such as the exclusion of calls to cell-phones (which, Cillizza argued, tended to exclude younger voters), and also more generally to a lack of methodological disclosure. Cillizza did, however, note in the same piece that Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polling organizations during the 2016 United States presidential election.[95]

[Loki Liesmith]

14. They always adjust their numbers right before election

Documented

[Eliot Rosewater]

15. Thanks for that ! ! !

[lapucelle]

22. What exactly are you "just sayin"?

It doesn't look like Rasmussen was "right on the money".

[Loki Liesmith]

13. Im not really into calls to denounce things

[Eliot Rosewater]

16. Where do you stand on

DANCING

[Loki Liesmith]

17. Will denounce it

[msongs]

18. twitter is god. everything on twitter is 100% true. worship twitter nt

[Eliot Rosewater]

19. Especially if said tweets attack Hillary or similar other democrats.

[struggle4progress]

23. Poll: 100% of Americans think Trump is Greatestest President Ever

A new poll of a randomly-selected American finds 100% of Americans think Trump is Greatestest President Ever

The survey was conducted by SHS Polling at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue between 4:30 and 4:42 PM on Monday 5 February

[former9thward]

24. So exactly who is "reliable"?

Just so we don't make a mistake in our denouncing...