If true - a big if since this is an outlier poll - this is "A Disaster for Republicans"

[kpete]

I’m not sure how revealing this chart is. We know that Democratic districts vote more heavily D than Republican districts vote R. In 2016, red states voted by an avg margin of 27%, blue by 36. The question (again as @SeanTrende points out) is the shift in competitive districts.

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Take it all with a grain of salt and average your polls rather than focusing on specific ones.

But this ABC poll is a disaster for Republicans and got written up in a way that implies the reverse.

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It implies something like a 22 point swing in Dems’ direction in the GOP held districts, which would entail incumbent losses on an unprecedented scale.

Even in a huge wave you’d expect Dems to lose the *typical* GOP district by a large margin.

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[bearsfootball516]

1. I'd love to see a poll done that surveys

Voters who didn't vote in the 2016 election but are planning on voting in the 2018 midterms, and which party they're voting with.

[vi5]

2. I don't want to see this stuff...

..not because I think it will depress voter turnout under assumptions that it's in the bag. I don't think that will happen.

I worry because our campaign managers, and people at the DNC and DCCC and every place that makes decisions for us will see this and decide that the best approach is to play it safe, count on numbers like this and not put money and time into campaigning and getting out the vote and everything else.

I fully believe that approach was one of the factors that hurt us in 2016.

[kpete]

3. I understand your concerns

Good candidates and GOTV are our only hope


Campaign Managers be damned.

[vi5]

5. It's our biggest problem.

Too many candidates and campaigns are focus grouped and over managed to death.

One of the most depressing articles I've read recently was about how even among good, dynamic Dem candidates who win their primaries, that they are strong armed into using DNC and DCCC approved consultants and managers, etc. As with any article I take it all with a grain of salt, but it seemed credible enough and wasn't on an overly slanted site if I remember correctly.

[xmas74]

4. In Missouri we're working on ballot initiatives

To get voters in the booths for midterms. Included at this time is a measure fighting against the Right to Work that the legislation passed in 2017.
Medical marijuana is predicted to make a showing on the ballot in November.

The idea is to get iniatives that voters are interested in so they will show up to vote. We are expecting a large number of voters this season and past history has shown in Missouri that the larger numbers usually favor Democrats.