Why Trump lacks Obama's solid Senate majority from 2009-10

[alp227]

Last edited Sat Jan 20, 2018, 12:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Welcome to the Age of Trump, where Republicans control all three government branches yet STILL could not pass a continuing resolution (not a full) budget!

So out of curiosity I went to the Wikipedia entries United States Senate elections, 2008 and United States Senate elections, 2016 and 2017.

Let's contrast the results of 2008 and '16...

2008: Barack Obama flipped eight Republican Senate seats - including in "red states" Montana and North Carolina. Some of the flipped seats were of moderate Republicans in blue states - namely Norm Coleman of Minnesota (after a lonnnnng recount) and Gordon Smith of Oregon.

2016: Donald Trump did NOT flip a single Democratic Senate seat - not one. Every state with a Democratic senator retained a Democrat whether incumbent or replacement - namely the solidly blue states Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Colorado, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, and Maryland. Think about it: Do you ever see those states voting for Republican presidents or senators in the near future?

In that year, two moderate "RINO" Republicans lost their re-election bids to Democrats - Mark Kirk of Illinois (who won the 2010 election for Obama's former seat) and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire. I'm not sure if Ayotte qualifies as a Never-Trumper as much as Kirk, who had been speaking out against Trump as early as June 2016. And then in 2017, Doug Jones had his upset victory in the Alabama special election over the repugnant child predator and theocrat Roy Moore, the Democrats' equivalent of Scott Brown winning the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat eight years ago.

The Nevada Senate election for retiring Majority Leader Harry Reid's old seat was rather close - Catherine Cortez Masto won with only 47% of the vote compared to Harry Reid getting 50% back in 2010. An interesting stat from the Nevada election: "None of These Candidates" got 4% of the vote, while Republican candidate Joe Heck got 45%. Heck paid the price for daring to declare he would not vote for Trump, following the Access Hollywood tapes. Not even re-joining the Trump train days before the Election could save him.

I don't know how many others have pointed it out, but we got lucky in 2016 that Trump lacked as many "flippable" Senate seats unlike Obama in 2008. Now, 2018 will be a real challenge in the Senate. Can the Democrats follow up the Doug Jones victory in Alabama by "stealing" one of Utah, Arizona, or Tennessee? What about the "flippable" Democratic seats in Trump-voting states Indiana, Missouri, (and sadly) Pennsylvania and Michigan?

[spooky3]

1. Maryland has a R governor. They have had others

(Ehrlich) and probably will have more.

[alp227]

4. Many states that vote (D) in presidential elections go (R) for governor

Maryland's Electoral College votes have gone to the Democrat since Clinton in 1992. Gov. Ehrlich lasted only one term before being ousted in the Blue Wave of 2006. Who knows if Hogan will win re-election in a blue state, where conservatives regard him as a "RINO"? The last time Maryland re-elected a Republican governor was in 1954.

Similarly, California has chosen blue every election since '92 - yet the state re-elected Republican Gov. Pete Wilson in 1994, recalled Democrat Gray Davis for Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003, and re-elected the former action film star in '06.

Also, red states do vote for Democratic governors. Every year since 2000, West Virginia would pick the Republican presidential candidate yet when the governor comes up for a vote in the year after (2001, 2005, etc.) the voters choose Democrats! That streak may be in jeopardy, after Jim Justice switched to the Republican Party this year.

[spooky3]

5. You asked in your OP whether we thought MD would

be voting for a Republican for governor any time soon. Not sure why you’re asking that, since the reality is that they have, and they probably will again.

[alp227]

6. Friday night brain fart.

I also realize Vermont currently has a Republican governor, also elected in the "Ted wave" year of 2014.

[JI7]

2. Trump and his Chief of Staff are both idiots and bigots . they have no clue about Governing

Obama actually served in legislature so he had personal experience of how it works and he had actual people with experience advising him. plus he actually worked hard .

[Rhiannon12866]

3. I really believe we'll see a huge Trump backlash in November

We've already seen one in my Republican-leaning neck-of-the-woods here in Northeastern New York. The Town Board which usually has a solid Republican majority failed to elect all but one. And the nearby city elected a Democratic mayor by more than 2-1. It think it's started already!